证券研究报告 梦百合 (603313 CH) 内外贸营收稳增，利润符合预期 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | | 家居用品 | 目标价(人民币): | 10.81 | 公司发布 2025 年半年报：1H25 公司实现营收 43.16 亿元/同比+9.4%；归 母净利润 1.15 亿元/同比+118%，符合业绩预告指引（归母净利润 1.0~1.2 亿元）。其中 Q2 实现营收 22.73 亿元/同比+6.8%，归母净利润 5583 万元 /同比+70.4%。公司利润端显著改善，我们判断主要原因有：1）记忆绵床 垫、记忆绵枕等重点品类毛利率同比提升；2）国内自主品牌建设和海外 OBM 转型，业务结构持续改善；3）信用减值损失计提较去年同期减少。展望后 续：1）全球化产能布局领先，北美本土产能优势突出，欧洲市场积极拓展， 收入稳增可期；2）国内发力品牌及渠道建设，记忆棉品类在内销家居企业 中具备独特性，看好公司未来内外贸发展，维 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Dream Lily as of August 5, 2025, closed at 8.53 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan or 0.12% from the previous trading day [1] - Dream Lily primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of memory foam mattresses, pillows, and other home products, and is a leading company in the domestic memory foam home products industry [1] - The company has announced a new concept of "2025 mid-term report pre-increase" [1] Group 2 - Dream Lily expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million to 120 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 90.14% to 128.17% [1] - The growth in performance is mainly attributed to the optimization of the product structure and successful expansion into overseas markets [1] Group 3 - On August 5, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 2.11 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 24.05 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Viewpoint - The home goods industry is experiencing a significant divergence, with 26 listed home goods companies reporting their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, where 11 are expected to be profitable and 15 are projected to incur losses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Among the 26 listed home goods companies, 11 are expected to maintain positive net profits, while 15 are facing losses, indicating a split in performance within the industry [1][2]. - Notable companies with profit increases include Jiangxin Home, Dream Baily, Wo Le Home, and Haixiang New Materials, with Haixiang New Materials projecting a staggering profit increase of 933.86% to 1229.25% [1][5][6]. - Conversely, 15 companies, including Diou Home, Meike Home, and Qu Mei Home, are expected to report losses, with six of these companies, such as Fenglin Group and Delixi Co., facing their first-ever losses in the half-year report [1][8][10]. Group 2: Strategies for Profitability - Companies achieving profit growth are employing strategies such as market expansion, product upgrades, and cost control [2][6]. - Dream Baily is leveraging a "self-owned brand + cross-border e-commerce" model, anticipating a profit of 100 million to 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.14% to 128.17% [5][6]. - Jiangxin Home focuses on the smart electric sofa niche, expecting a profit of 410 million to 460 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 43.70% to 61.23% [5][6]. - Wo Le Home is enhancing its mid-to-high-end brand positioning, projecting a profit of 80 million to 99 million yuan, a growth of 76.08% to 117.90% [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Loss-Making Companies - The losses reported by companies are primarily attributed to factors such as the impact of real estate clients, weak market demand, and rising costs due to international trade friction [10][12]. - Diou Home is expected to incur a loss of 75 million to 95 million yuan due to prolonged accounts receivable aging and significant expenses related to convertible bonds [10][12]. - Companies like Pinao are facing revenue declines due to a drop in large-scale business income, with projected losses of 11 million to 14 million yuan [10][12]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The home goods industry is witnessing increased market concentration, with stronger companies gaining more market share, while smaller companies are struggling [13]. - Future growth points for the industry include smart home products, health-oriented home goods, and opportunities in lower-tier markets [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recognition of Ni Zhanggen, the founder of MLILY, as the "Brand Person of the Year 2024-2025" by the Tiger Roar Award, emphasizing his commitment to changing traditional sleeping habits in China and promoting the value of comfortable sleep [1][3]. Group 1: Brand Recognition and Philosophy - The Tiger Roar Award, guided by the China Business Advertising Association, is known for its rigorous standards and serves as an industry benchmark [1]. - The theme of this year's award is "Intelligent Control of the Era," focusing on the importance of "value adherence" over mere tactical efficiency [1]. - Ni Zhanggen's pursuit of brand value is highlighted, as he aims to enhance human deep sleep and change the traditional belief in hard beds in China [1][3]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Consumer Behavior - Despite the efforts, 65.1% of Chinese consumers still use hard mattresses, and 75.1% believe that "sleeping on a hard bed is good for the back," reflecting deep-rooted traditional beliefs [4]. - Ni Zhanggen has established a company policy against producing hard beds, coconut coir, and latex, focusing instead on memory foam mattresses, even at the cost of significant sales opportunities [4][6]. Group 3: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - Ni Zhanggen actively promotes the dangers of hard beds through various media and personal outreach, amassing over 2 million followers on social media [6]. - The company has initiated the "One Million Hard Mattress Transformation Plan" and various social welfare projects to raise awareness about the importance of proper sleep [7][9]. - Specific initiatives include the "Dusk Plan" for the elderly and programs aimed at preventing spinal issues in children, demonstrating a commitment to social value [9][11]. Group 4: Global Expansion and Market Performance - Under Ni Zhanggen's leadership, MLILY has maintained growth in the domestic market despite challenges, and the brand has successfully expanded to 110 countries and regions globally [12][14]. - Since its listing in 2016, MLILY has sold over 100 million products, establishing itself as a leader in the global memory foam market [14]. - The brand's global strategy has been well-received in markets without the hard bed tradition, indicating a successful adaptation to diverse consumer needs [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dream Lily Home Technology Co., Ltd., is preparing for its 2024 annual shareholder meeting, focusing on maintaining shareholder rights and ensuring orderly proceedings. The company reported a revenue of 8.449 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.94%, but a net loss of 151 million yuan, a decrease of 242.04% compared to the previous year [4][24]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dream Lily Home Technology Co., Ltd. aims to enhance its global market competitiveness and accelerate market expansion [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 14.36 billion yuan from its ODM business, marking a year-on-year growth of 48.72% [4]. - The company has established a strong partnership with major European clients, contributing to the growth of its ODM business [4]. Group 2: Market Performance - The European market has seen continuous double-digit growth in the company's main business revenue for two consecutive years [4]. - The North American market has stabilized, with a reduction in revenue decline by 12.20 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. - The company's online brand EGOHOME ranked among the top 20 best-selling mattress products on Amazon [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its ODM and OBM business models, with plans to strengthen regional market development and expand its customer base [11]. - The company aims to promote its brand internationally, particularly in the U.S. market, leveraging local supply chain advantages [11]. - The company plans to optimize its offline channels and enhance brand awareness through various marketing strategies [12]. Group 4: Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan for 2024, with a significant decrease in profitability [25]. - The total assets of the company decreased by 4.40%, with current assets amounting to 442.29 million yuan [24]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was -395.10 million yuan, a decrease of 8.87% compared to the previous year [24]. Group 5: Governance and Compliance - The company’s supervisory board has conducted regular meetings to ensure compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [20]. - The supervisory board has confirmed that the company’s financial management and internal controls are sound and comply with relevant regulations [22][23]. - The company has adhered to proper procedures regarding related party transactions and external guarantees [22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company, MLILY, is a leading manufacturer of memory foam mattresses, focusing on enhancing deep sleep for consumers. It has established a strong presence in over 110 countries, including the US, UK, and Japan, and is recognized for its innovative "zero pressure" mattress concept [8][9] - The company is expected to face short-term challenges but is positioned for recovery and growth in the coming years, with projected revenue growth and profitability improvements starting in 2025 [6][9] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 8017 million yuan, with a slight decline to 7976 million yuan in 2023. Forecasts indicate a recovery to 8670 million yuan in 2024, 9567 million yuan in 2025, and 10318 million yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 10.3%, and 7.8% respectively [7][11] - Net profit is projected to turn from a loss of 152 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 234 million yuan in 2025 and 282 million yuan in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround [7][11] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 38.9% in 2025 and 2026, with improvements in operational efficiency [7][11] Business Segments - The company operates through three main business segments: 1. **Store Sales**: Expected to generate 2603 million yuan in 2024, with a slight recovery in subsequent years [10][11] 2. **Online Sales**: Anticipated to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 1787 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 2756 million yuan by 2026 [10][11] 3. **Bulk Sales**: Expected to see steady growth, with revenues forecasted at 4080 million yuan in 2024 and continuing to rise [10][11] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent US anti-dumping tax rulings, which may enhance its competitive advantage in the US market due to its local manufacturing capabilities [9] - The company is actively upgrading its store formats and expanding its online presence to capture a larger market share and improve customer engagement [10][11] Valuation - The company is valued based on a projected PE ratio of 15 to 18 for 2025, suggesting a reasonable price range of 6.98 to 7.39 yuan per share [8][9]