选自A.I News Hub 机器之心编译 英伟达的「护城河」正在崩塌？谷歌TPU凭什么让巨头们疯狂倒戈？ 摩根士丹利直接把预测往上猛调， 2027 年 TPU 产量将达到 500 万块，2028 年更是要冲到 700 万块 。要知 道，之前的预测可是 300 万块和 320 万块，这波上调幅度分别高达 67% 和 120%。换句话说，未来两年谷歌 要生产 1200 万块 TPU，而过去四年加起来才生产了 790 万块。 这笔生意有多赚？摩根士丹利给出一个测算， 谷歌每卖出 50 万块 TPU 芯片，2027 年就能进账约 130 亿美 元，每股收益增加 0.40 美元 。 战略层面看，谷歌的打法也很明确，直接向第三方数据中心销售 TPU，作为谷歌云平台 (GCP) 业务的重要 补充。虽然大部分 TPU 仍会用在谷歌自家的 AI 训练和云服务上，但如此大的产能储备，显然是在为更广 泛的商业化做准备。 摩根士丹利认为，这些迹象都是谷歌 TPU 销售战略的早期信号。眼下全行业对先进 AI 算力需求爆棚，谷 歌显然不想错过这波红利。 受 AI 芯片需求强劲的影响，摩根士丹利顺手把联发科评级上调至「增持」，理由是整个 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [43]. Core Insights - The performance of Alphabet in FY2025Q2 exceeded analyst expectations, with significant contributions from AI-enabled services and a notable increase in capital expenditure guidance [2][6]. - The monthly tokens consumption for AI applications has nearly doubled, indicating robust growth in user engagement and demand for AI services [3][13]. - The capital expenditure for FY2025Q2 reached $22.4 billion, a 70% year-on-year increase, reflecting strong demand for AI business and cloud services [14][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Alphabet FY2025Q2 Performance - The total revenue for FY2025Q2 was $96.4 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $94 billion. Net profit was $28.2 billion, up 19%, with an EPS of $2.31, a 22% increase year-on-year [2][6]. - Google Services revenue for FY2025Q2 was $82.5 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth, driven by strong performance in search, subscriptions, platforms, devices, and YouTube ads [2][6]. - Google Cloud revenue for FY2025Q2 was $13.6 billion, a 32% year-on-year increase, primarily due to growth in core products, AI infrastructure, and generative AI solutions [2][6]. 2. AI Business Overview - The monthly tokens consumption has exceeded 980 trillion tokens, nearly doubling from the 480 trillion tokens reported at the 25M5 I/O conference. Gemini has over 450 million users, with daily request volume increasing by over 50% [3][13]. - Google Cloud backlog reached $106 billion, a 38% year-on-year increase and an 18% quarter-on-quarter increase, with multiple $1 billion contracts signed in the first half of 2025 [3][13]. 3. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for FY2025Q2 was $22.4 billion, a 70% year-on-year increase, with approximately two-thirds invested in servers and one-third in data centers and network equipment [14][28]. - Due to strong market demand for cloud products and services, the capital expenditure guidance for 2025 has been raised to $85 billion from the previous $75 billion [14][28].