1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - medium term relative strength ranking: Oils > Sugar > Meal > Corn > Cotton > Livestock [2] - Short - medium term long - short allocation suggestions: Long palm oil 01 and sugar 01; short cotton 01 and egg 01 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕**: Recommended to go long M2601 on dips with a stop - loss at 2900 - 2950. From September 22 to October 14, M2601 fell 132 points to 2902. The Argentine government's export tax suspension policy and other factors led to a weak performance [12]. - **玉米**: Recommended to go short corn 11 contract on rallies. After the National Day, the spot price dropped sharply, and the futures price also followed suit, breaking below 2100 yuan/ton, with a good strategy performance [12]. - **油脂**: Recommended to go long palm oil 01 contract. From September 22 to October 14, the price was basically flat. The Argentine export tax suspension and the MPOB report affected the price trend [13]. - **棉花**: Recommended to hold the short position of the 1 - month contract and the reverse spread strategy of the 11 - 1 contract. The short position of the 1 - month contract was profitable by 3%, while the reverse spread strategy was not successful [14]. - **白糖**: Recommended to go long SR601 on dips. Affected by the Sino - US trade war and other factors, the strategy performed poorly [14]. - **强弱配置策略**: In the past month from September 19 to October 15, the overall performance of agricultural products was weak. The long - short allocation strategy achieved a 1.7% profit [15][16]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bullish in 3 months. Although the inventory in October and the delay of Indonesia's B50 policy will suppress the rise of the 01 contract, the coming of the production reduction season, the increasing probability of La Nina, and the support of Indonesia's B40 policy are still positive factors. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract with a stop - loss at 9000, a short - term take - profit at 9600, and a medium - long - term target of 9800 - 10000 yuan [19]. - **白糖**: Bullish in 3 months. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and considering the production costs of major producers, the export threshold of India, and the CFTC positions, the downside space of the outer market is limited. The domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar, and the SR601 contract has long - allocation value. It is recommended to go long on dips with a take - profit at 5600 - 5700 and a stop - loss at 5350 [19]. 3.2.2套利策略 No relevant content provided. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: The long - term logic of long - allocating palm oil remains unchanged. In the short term, the inventory in October and the delay of B50 will suppress the 01 contract, but the production reduction season and the demand for Indonesia to catch up with the B40 progress are positive. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract at 9200 - 9300 yuan with a take - profit around 9600 yuan [22][23]. - **白糖板块**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production will decline, the production expectations of India and Thailand need to be verified, the production costs of major producers are high, and the CFTC positions indicate limited downside space. Domestically, the import volume will decrease in the fourth quarter, and the market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. It is recommended to go long the SR601 contract on dips [28][29][32]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕**: In the short - medium term, it is supported by cost but suppressed by supply and demand. The supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply shortage from February to the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans [51]. - **菜粕**: Similar to bean粕, affected by policies. The spot basis of rapeseed meal is stronger than that of bean粕 [51]. - **棕榈油**: In the short term, the rise of the 01 contract is restricted, but it is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter. In the medium - long term, it is expected to continue to rise [51]. - **豆油**: It has been oscillating recently, lacking a clear driving force, and needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US relations [51]. - **菜油**: It has been weak recently, affected by the possible relaxation of Sino - Canadian relations and the arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed [51]. - **玉米**: It is expected to find the bottom through oscillation in the short term and then rebound. The price center is expected to remain relatively stable [53]. - **玉米淀粉**: It is expected to follow corn to find the bottom first and then gradually build the bottom and rebound. The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to remain low and oscillate [53]. - **鸡蛋**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is difficult to ease significantly. It is recommended to go short the JD2511 contract and pay attention to the anti - spread strategy [53]. - **生猪**: The futures price is trading the problem of oversupply. The seasonal rebound drive of the 1 - month contract is not as strong as the drag of inventory reduction on the spot price [53]. - **白糖**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and the domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. The SR601 contract has long - allocation value [54]. - **棉花**: In the short - medium term, it will be under pressure, and the low point may appear in November. In the long term, it is cautiously optimistic [54]. - **橡胶**: It is expected to oscillate and weaken in the fourth quarter, but the price may rebound if the raw material decline is slow [54]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month from September 15 to October 15, the capital scale of the agricultural product futures sector was basically stable, with a slight net outflow. The net outflow of funds in the bean and oil sectors was relatively large, while the soft commodities, agricultural and sideline products (especially livestock), and grains had varying degrees of net inflows [55]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年10月15日）**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data of various agricultural product varieties on October 15, 2025 [59]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: In the short - medium term, it is recommended to long - allocate palm oil 01 and sugar 01 and short - allocate cotton 01 and egg 01. In the medium - long term, it is recommended to long - allocate oils on dips and short - allocate sugar, livestock, and eggs on rallies [66][67].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal futures prices have shown significant fluctuations in the past two weeks, with the M2601 contract dropping nearly 5% from 3180-3190 CNY/ton in mid-August to 3030-3040 CNY/ton [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The current international soybean market is influenced by the supply and demand situation of major exporting countries, with prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Brazilian soybean quotes to China undergoing dynamic adjustments [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices are currently below the import cost of soybeans expected to arrive in January next year, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The M2601 contract may experience a short-term rebound, but the long-term trend will depend on subsequent changes in the soybean supply and demand landscape [1]