农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月25日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 。 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力01合约下跌，午后收于8144（日变动-24或 -0.29%）。产地棕榈油超预期增产，棕榈油价格下挫带动豆油价格 走低。目前国内豆油库存较为充足，并且市场担忧美豆油生 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - medium term relative strength ranking: Oils > Sugar > Meal > Corn > Cotton > Livestock [2] - Short - medium term long - short allocation suggestions: Long palm oil 01 and sugar 01; short cotton 01 and egg 01 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - **豆粕**: Recommended to go long M2601 on dips with a stop - loss at 2900 - 2950. From September 22 to October 14, M2601 fell 132 points to 2902. The Argentine government's export tax suspension policy and other factors led to a weak performance [12]. - **玉米**: Recommended to go short corn 11 contract on rallies. After the National Day, the spot price dropped sharply, and the futures price also followed suit, breaking below 2100 yuan/ton, with a good strategy performance [12]. - **油脂**: Recommended to go long palm oil 01 contract. From September 22 to October 14, the price was basically flat. The Argentine export tax suspension and the MPOB report affected the price trend [13]. - **棉花**: Recommended to hold the short position of the 1 - month contract and the reverse spread strategy of the 11 - 1 contract. The short position of the 1 - month contract was profitable by 3%, while the reverse spread strategy was not successful [14]. - **白糖**: Recommended to go long SR601 on dips. Affected by the Sino - US trade war and other factors, the strategy performed poorly [14]. - **强弱配置策略**: In the past month from September 19 to October 15, the overall performance of agricultural products was weak. The long - short allocation strategy achieved a 1.7% profit [15][16]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - **棕榈油**: Bullish in 3 months. Although the inventory in October and the delay of Indonesia's B50 policy will suppress the rise of the 01 contract, the coming of the production reduction season, the increasing probability of La Nina, and the support of Indonesia's B40 policy are still positive factors. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract with a stop - loss at 9000, a short - term take - profit at 9600, and a medium - long - term target of 9800 - 10000 yuan [19]. - **白糖**: Bullish in 3 months. In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and considering the production costs of major producers, the export threshold of India, and the CFTC positions, the downside space of the outer market is limited. The domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar, and the SR601 contract has long - allocation value. It is recommended to go long on dips with a take - profit at 5600 - 5700 and a stop - loss at 5350 [19]. 3.2.2套利策略 No relevant content provided. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - **油脂板块**: The long - term logic of long - allocating palm oil remains unchanged. In the short term, the inventory in October and the delay of B50 will suppress the 01 contract, but the production reduction season and the demand for Indonesia to catch up with the B40 progress are positive. It is recommended to go long the 01 contract at 9200 - 9300 yuan with a take - profit around 9600 yuan [22][23]. - **白糖板块**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar production will decline, the production expectations of India and Thailand need to be verified, the production costs of major producers are high, and the CFTC positions indicate limited downside space. Domestically, the import volume will decrease in the fourth quarter, and the market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. It is recommended to go long the SR601 contract on dips [28][29][32]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - **豆粕**: In the short - medium term, it is supported by cost but suppressed by supply and demand. The supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply shortage from February to the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans [51]. - **菜粕**: Similar to bean粕, affected by policies. The spot basis of rapeseed meal is stronger than that of bean粕 [51]. - **棕榈油**: In the short term, the rise of the 01 contract is restricted, but it is expected to strengthen in the fourth quarter. In the medium - long term, it is expected to continue to rise [51]. - **豆油**: It has been oscillating recently, lacking a clear driving force, and needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US relations [51]. - **菜油**: It has been weak recently, affected by the possible relaxation of Sino - Canadian relations and the arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed [51]. - **玉米**: It is expected to find the bottom through oscillation in the short term and then rebound. The price center is expected to remain relatively stable [53]. - **玉米淀粉**: It is expected to follow corn to find the bottom first and then gradually build the bottom and rebound. The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to remain low and oscillate [53]. - **鸡蛋**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is difficult to ease significantly. It is recommended to go short the JD2511 contract and pay attention to the anti - spread strategy [53]. - **生猪**: The futures price is trading the problem of oversupply. The seasonal rebound drive of the 1 - month contract is not as strong as the drag of inventory reduction on the spot price [53]. - **白糖**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of Brazilian sugar will decrease, and the domestic sugar market pricing will shift to domestic new - season sugar. The SR601 contract has long - allocation value [54]. - **棉花**: In the short - medium term, it will be under pressure, and the low point may appear in November. In the long term, it is cautiously optimistic [54]. - **橡胶**: It is expected to oscillate and weaken in the fourth quarter, but the price may rebound if the raw material decline is slow [54]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month from September 15 to October 15, the capital scale of the agricultural product futures sector was basically stable, with a slight net outflow. The net outflow of funds in the bean and oil sectors was relatively large, while the soft commodities, agricultural and sideline products (especially livestock), and grains had varying degrees of net inflows [55]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年10月15日）**: The report provides the basis and basis rate data of various agricultural product varieties on October 15, 2025 [59]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: In the short - medium term, it is recommended to long - allocate palm oil 01 and sugar 01 and short - allocate cotton 01 and egg 01. In the medium - long term, it is recommended to long - allocate oils on dips and short - allocate sugar, livestock, and eggs on rallies [66][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean - related products**: Uncertainties in US soybean biodiesel policies and potential Sino - US soybean trade negotiations have led to price fluctuations. Domestic soybean products face supply - side pressures, with prices expected to be weak in the short - term [3][5][8]. - **Rapeseed - related products**: Temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce imports, but alternative sources can partially compensate. If imports from Canada significantly decrease, domestic rapeseed oil and meal may experience inventory reduction [3][4][6]. - **Palm oil**: Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory - building period, but production growth is expected to slow. Indonesian biodiesel policies may support prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Corn and corn starch**: Externally, factors like Fed rate - cut expectations and US corn exports support prices, but northern hemisphere corn harvests and inventory - building expectations limit upside. Domestically, the market is in a tug - of - war, with prices expected to remain low in the short - term [7]. - **Peanuts**: New - season peanuts are expected to have a bumper harvest, and falling production costs put pressure on prices. However, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking provides some support, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Livestock products**: Pig prices are weak due to over - supply and low feed prices. Egg prices are also under pressure from supply, but consumption during the peak season may provide some support [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, and US soybean policies face obstacles. Supply is expected to increase. | 3800 - 3830 | 3950 - 4000 | Sideways to bearish | Hold short positions [8][13] | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. | 3600 - 3630 | 3770 - 3800 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Peanut 11 | New - season bumper harvest, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see [9][13] | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals and continued inventory - building. | 8200 - 8230 | 8450 - 8500 | Bearish | Wait and see [3][13] | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and potential inventory reduction. | 9500 - 9600 | 10300 - 10333 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [3][4][13] | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance in Malaysia and potential weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 | 9700 - 9736 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [4][13] | | Proteins | Soybean meal 01 | Obstacles in US biodiesel promotion and uncertainties in Sino - US trade. | 2900 - 2950 | 3030 - 3050 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and poor cost - performance. | 2365 - 2400 | 2572 - 2584 | Sideways to bearish | Wait and see [6][13] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Bearish fundamentals. | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | | Starch 11 | Corn price decline and relatively loose supply. | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | Livestock | Pig 11 | Feed price rebound and strong capacity - reduction expectations. | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Searching for a bottom | Switch to wait - and - see [10][13] | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and peak - season consumption expectations. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Searching for a bottom | Buy on dips [10][13] | 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery arbitrage**: For most varieties, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, except for soybean meal 3 - 5 (positive spread), pig 1 - 3 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips), and egg 10 - 1 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips) [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity arbitrage**: For some oil and protein products, different strategies such as bearish, bullish, and waiting - and - seeing are recommended [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - Basis data for various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy products, and livestock are provided, showing price changes and basis fluctuations [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily data**: Import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates are presented, including CNF prices, landed duty - paid prices, and break - even soybean meal costs [18][19]. - **Weekly data**: Inventory and operating rate data for soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts are provided, reflecting supply - side changes [20][21]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are given [21]. - **Weekly data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rates and inventory are presented [22]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Daily data**: Data on live pig prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, and related ratios are provided, showing the current state of the pig market [23]. - **Weekly data**: Key data for eggs and live pigs, including supply, demand, profit, and related prices, are presented [25][26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (pigs and eggs)**: Charts show the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices and related data, helping to analyze market trends [29][32][33]. - **Oils and oilseeds**: Charts display data on Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and related basis and spreads, as well as data on soybean oil and peanut - related indicators [41][52][56]. - **Feed**: Charts present data on corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal, including prices, inventory, consumption, and spreads [60][64][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as corn option trading volume, open interest, and related ratios [94][95]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the warehouse receipt data for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [99][100][101].