VLCC运价冲破十万美元，供需错配下的隐性紧缩 近期，超大型油轮（VLCC）市场持续飙升，即期运价已全面突破10万美元/天，个别航次甚至逼近20 万美元/天。这场行情不仅点燃了船东的热情，更揭 示了油轮市场中理论供给与实际运力的巨大落差。 运价全线突破六位数 根据 Clarksons 的最新数据，VLCC现货加权平均水平在9月中旬升至103,200 美元/天，较前一日上涨8.3%。美国银行Jefferies的估算显示，一艘环保设计并 配备脱硫塔的VLCC可实现 100,600 美元/天的收益。 Tankers International统计显示，仅9月16日当天就有11 笔VLCC合同达成，其中4笔超过10万美元/天。高价成交包括： 即期市场的火爆延伸到了期租市场，据经纪公司Fearnley为信德海事提供的数据显示，自9月开始运费一路会上涨4500美元，到目前为止，一艘环保型配备 脱硫塔的VLCC一年租期为55000美元/天。 全球最大VLCC联营池Tankers International (TI)则借成立25周年之际强调，现货市场的表现将持续跑赢定租合约。CEO Charlie Grey 指出："我们坚定 ...

Group 1: Conflict and Impact on Shipping - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with Iran considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil and shipping markets [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial energy transport route, with over 5 million barrels of oil exported monthly, accounting for about one-fifth of global oil transportation [5][1] - Recent navigation signal anomalies have been reported for over 900 vessels in the Strait, indicating potential risks to shipping safety [1][8] Group 2: Shipping Rates and Market Reactions - Following the conflict, shipping rates for oil tankers and dry bulk carriers have surged, with the average earnings for Middle East to China routes exceeding $30,000 per day, a 47% increase [3][9] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose nearly 10%, reaching an eight-month high, reflecting the immediate impact of the regional tensions on shipping costs [3][9] - Historical data shows that during the Iran-Iraq War, shipping costs increased by 50% to 100% due to war insurance premiums and rerouting costs, suggesting a similar trend may occur now [7] Group 3: Navigation Challenges and Safety Concerns - Increased electronic interference in the Gulf region has been reported, affecting vessels' navigation systems and raising collision risks [7][8] - A recent incident involving two oil tankers colliding in the Strait may be linked to navigation signal disruptions, highlighting the safety challenges in the area [2][8] - Shipping companies are advised to heighten their alert levels and consider alternative routes, such as around the Cape of Good Hope, due to the heightened risks [8][9] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The historical context of the Strait of Hormuz indicates that geopolitical tensions have consistently influenced global shipping networks [10] - The ongoing conflict and the involvement of groups like the Houthis in the region could lead to further disruptions in shipping routes and increased costs [17] - The potential for a return to normalcy in shipping routes, such as the Suez Canal, remains uncertain and will significantly affect shipping rates and operational costs [15][16]