Core Viewpoint - Cosco Shipping Energy (中远海能) shares rose nearly 7% in the afternoon, with a current increase of 5.19%, trading at HKD 10.94, with a transaction volume of HKD 186 million [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent increases in oil production from the Middle East and South America have become evident over the past two months, positively impacting the market [1] - The U.S. has intensified sanctions against Russia, leading India to reduce imports of Russian oil in favor of Middle Eastern and U.S. Gulf oil, benefiting compliant VLCCs and driving freight rates up [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The VLCC-TCE (Very Large Crude Carrier Time Charter Equivalent) for the Middle East to China route reached a peak of over USD 140,000 last week [1] - The expected average VLCC-TCE for Q4 2025 is projected to exceed USD 90,000, indicating that oil tanker profitability is set to reach a ten-year high [1]

Core Viewpoint - 中远海能's stock price increased by nearly 7%, reaching HKD 10.94, with a trading volume of HKD 186 million, driven by favorable market conditions in the oil shipping sector [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The increase in oil production from the Middle East and South America has become evident over the past two months, positively impacting the shipping industry [1]. - U.S. sanctions on Russian oil have led India to reduce imports from Russia, shifting towards Middle Eastern and U.S. Gulf oil, benefiting compliant VLCCs and causing freight rates to surge [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The VLCC-TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for the Middle East to China route reached over USD 140,000 last week, indicating strong demand and profitability [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see VLCC-TCE averages exceeding USD 90,000, with oil tanker profits projected to reach a ten-year high [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Ocean Shipping Energy (01138) has seen a significant increase, rising nearly 7% in the afternoon session, with a current price of HKD 10.94 and a trading volume of HKD 186 million. [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent reports from Cathay Securities indicate that the effects of increased oil production in the Middle East and South America have become evident over the past two months. [1] - The U.S. has intensified sanctions against Russian oil, leading India to reduce imports of Russian oil and shift towards Middle Eastern and U.S. Gulf imports, which directly benefits compliant VLCCs and has resulted in soaring freight rates. [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The VLCC-TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for the Middle East to China route reached a peak of over USD 140,000 last week. [1] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, the earnings corresponding to VLCC-TCE are expected to exceed USD 90,000, with projections indicating that oil tanker profitability will reach a ten-year high. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector showed strength in early trading, particularly in the oil transportation segment, with significant gains in stock prices for major companies [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The shipping sector experienced a strong performance, with the oil transportation segment leading the gains [1] - The West African Marlonge/Jeno-China Ningbo (260,000MT) Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) freight index rose to 98.88 WS on October 29, marking a daily increase of 6.51%, a weekly increase of 10.01%, and a monthly increase of 6.68% [1] Group 2: Company Highlights - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) reached its daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Other companies in the sector, including COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (中远海能), China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (招商南油), COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (中远海特), and Air China Ocean Shipping (国航远洋), also saw their stock prices rise [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector is expected to see price increases due to a "de-involution" initiative in Anhui Province, which aims to combat unhealthy price competition and promote high-quality industry development. Starting September 15, 2025, express prices in Anhui will rise by no less than 0.2 yuan per ticket, which is anticipated to help stabilize prices in the central and eastern regions of China [4][3] - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with VLCC TD3c TCE rising to $82,674 per day, a 34.13% increase from the previous week. This surge is attributed to the seasonal release of cargo volumes and geopolitical factors affecting oil exports [6][7] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in ticket prices, with a positive year-on-year growth trend observed since August 13, 2025. This is driven by a rebound in business travel and inbound tourism, suggesting a potential for continued price increases [8][9] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics industry is showing resilience in demand, with a focus on reducing unhealthy competition. Companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and SF Express are expected to benefit from this trend, with potential for improved profitability and valuation [11] Shipping - The oil transportation market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment. Companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy are recommended for investment [11] - The dry bulk shipping market is also anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations and increased demand for commodities. Companies like China Merchants Industry Holdings and Haitong Development are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [11] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to experience long-term growth due to low supply growth and improving demand. Key companies to watch include China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from this trend [11] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are positioned well for growth due to industry dynamics and strategic transformations [11] Ports - The port sector is seen as stable with strong cash flows, and companies like China Merchants Port and Tangshan Port are recommended for their growth potential [11]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the situation in the Middle East is likely to lead to a significant increase in oil transportation rates due to heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transport route [1] Shipping Industry Impact - The shipping sector may initiate a new round of price increases following the 2024 Red Sea incident, driven by disruptions in the global maritime supply chain [1] - International oil transportation is expected to be significantly affected by the Middle East situation, with rates likely to jump from the current low base [1] - The impact on container shipping and dry bulk shipping from the Middle East region is relatively minor compared to oil transportation [1]