中金公司主要观点如下： 多因素推动聚变能源商业化进程。1)对稳定、清洁、高能量密度能源的迫切需求，推动可控核聚变成为 能源转型的核心方向。2)关键技术节点的连续突破(NIF装置净能量增益的突破，高温超导磁体的成熟应 用等)，推动了可控核聚变的工程化验证进展。 3)规模化与多元化的资本投入(截至2024年，全球私营聚变企业数量已增至45家)正加速可控核聚变从实 验室研究走向商业应用。4)各国政府通过立法保障、资金支持等构建有利的政策环境，为聚变能源发展 铺平道路。 产业链协同推进，多技术路径并行。上游超导材料、特殊材料及关键设备降本提效，头部企业技术突破 与产业协同，为商业化奠定坚实基础。技术路径来看可控核聚变百花齐放，磁约束为当前主导，其中托 卡马克是主流，ITER预计 2030-2035年首供，中国CFETR、BEST装置工程化优势显著；惯性约束以NIF 为突破，但效率待提升；Z箍缩、FRC等创新路线亦获进展。过去四年，全球聚变行业的投资规模呈现 高速增长的态势，总投资额从2021年的19亿美元攀升至2025年的约97.66亿美元，在四年内增长超过五 倍。 智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，十五五规划 ...

Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan incorporates controllable nuclear fusion into the national future industrial system, marking a transition from frontier scientific exploration to a strategic technological breakthrough direction [1] - As a clean baseload energy source, nuclear fusion can support carbon reduction upgrades in high-energy-consuming industries and has potential applications across multiple fields [1] - The current industrial chain is experiencing collaborative breakthroughs in upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, with continuous improvements in the maturity of core materials, key equipment, and integrated design technologies, laying the foundation for commercialization [1] - Investment opportunities are recommended in the upstream and downstream industrial chain, particularly in superconducting cables, lasers, and sensing, monitoring, and control systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of controllable nuclear fusion in China's 14th Five-Year Plan marks its transition from frontier scientific exploration to a strategic technological focus, establishing a foundation for commercialization and various applications in energy-intensive industries [2][9]. Summary by Sections Commercialization Drivers - The urgent demand for stable, clean, and high-energy-density energy sources is propelling controllable nuclear fusion as a core direction for energy transition [5]. - Continuous breakthroughs in key technologies, such as the NIF device's net energy gain and the mature application of high-temperature superconducting magnets, are advancing engineering validation [5][14]. - The number of private fusion companies globally has increased to 45 by 2024, with total financing reaching $7.12 billion, accelerating the transition from laboratory research to commercial application [5][14]. - Governments are creating favorable policy environments through legislation and funding support, paving the way for fusion energy development [15]. Industry Chain Collaboration - The upstream sector is seeing cost reductions and efficiency improvements in superconducting materials and key equipment, laying a solid foundation for commercialization [5]. - The main technical paths for controllable nuclear fusion include magnetic confinement, with Tokamak being the mainstream, and inertial confinement, with NIF as a breakthrough [5][16]. - Global investment in the fusion industry has surged from $1.9 billion in 2021 to approximately $9.766 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth of over five times in four years [5][14]. Investment Opportunities in Upstream Core Links - Key investment opportunities include: - Inertial confinement core laser systems, focusing on enhancing semiconductor laser chip power and efficiency [6]. - Superconducting cables, which are crucial for energy transmission in Tokamak devices, significantly impacting overall efficiency and cost [6]. - Monitoring and control systems, which are essential for plasma confinement precision and operational safety [6]. Technological Breakthroughs - Significant milestones in 2025 include the EAST device achieving a world record of 1,066 seconds of stable plasma operation at 100 million degrees Celsius [8]. - The establishment of the China Fusion Energy Company aims to integrate resources for the commercialization of fusion energy [8]. - The BEST device's precise installation of a 400-ton dewar base marks a critical step towards achieving the world's first fusion power demonstration by 2027 [8]. Policy Support and International Collaboration - The Chinese government has included controllable nuclear fusion in its strategic planning, emphasizing technological innovation for energy transition [9]. - International collaboration is exemplified by the ITER project, which involves 35 countries and aims to validate the engineering feasibility of magnetic confinement fusion [15]. Market Potential and Future Outlook - The global market for high-temperature superconducting materials used in fusion devices is projected to grow from $300 million in 2024 to $4.9 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 59.3% [35]. - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is expected to enter the demonstration phase around 2045, with potential for commercial power generation by 2050 [47].