Group 1 - The announcement details the arrangements for the issuance of government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, including key maturities, short-term bonds, ultra-long general bonds, and savings bonds [1] - The document specifies that the execution of these arrangements may change, and any modifications will be based on the government bond issuance documents at that time [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance schedule for various types of government bonds for the first quarter of 2026, including long-term, short-term, and savings bonds [1] - The issuance of ultra-long-term general bonds will commence on January 14, 2026 [1] - The first quarter will see multiple bond types being issued, including 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year bonds, with specific auction dates outlined [2][5][6] Group 2 - Short-term bonds will be issued with various maturities, including 28-day, 63-day, 91-day, and 182-day bonds, starting from January 6, 2026 [5] - The issuance of savings bonds will include a 3-year certificate type starting on March 10, 2026 [8] - The ultra-long-term general bonds will have a 30-year maturity, with auctions scheduled for January 14, February 6, and March 6, 2026, and a 50-year bond auction on March 11, 2026 [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of ultra-long bonds in 2025 is estimated. The supply pressure is expected to be high in February, August - September, with a monthly issuance scale possibly exceeding 70 billion yuan. The supply of ultra-long bonds will affect the term spread of ultra-long bonds and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds. The term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly, and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow [7][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Ultra-long Bond Supply Estimation - Ultra-long general treasury bonds have a small supply and are expected to be issued concentratedly from January - April and November - December. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 30-year and 50-year general treasury bonds is 30 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively [10] - Ultra-long special treasury bonds are expected to have high supply pressure in May, August - September. The total annual issuance is 1.3 trillion yuan. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year special treasury bonds is 5 - 6 billion yuan, 6 - 7 billion yuan, and 4 - 4.5 billion yuan respectively [12] - The proportion of ultra-long bonds in local special bonds has increased, and the issuance is expected to surge from August - September. The assumed proportion of ultra-long bonds remains at 69.2%. The monthly issuance scale may exceed 50 billion yuan [15] - Ultra-long local refinancing bonds are expected to be issued by June, with controllable supply pressure. The monthly issuance scale from May - June is estimated to be 14.98 billion yuan [17] 2. Impact on the Bond Market - As the issuance of ultra-long bonds increases, the term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly. The impact of ultra-long bond supply on the term spread is asymmetric. When issuance is high, the term spread is supported but rarely widens significantly; when issuance is low, the term spread is significantly compressed [20] - The spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow. When the supply of ultra-long treasury bonds is relatively large, the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds tends to narrow, and vice versa [21]