1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - From January 20th to January 26th, the bond market seller sentiment index declined, while the buyer sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. The bond market allocation force steadily entered the market, and the suppression of the equity market slowed down, driving the long - term bonds to have a repair market. However, the expected time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is still far off, and the market has a strong expectation of range - bound fluctuations in the market. The seller sentiment cooled slightly, and the market's judgment on the subsequent space remains cautious [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment 3.1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.07, a decrease of 0.07 compared with January 13th - January 19th. Some institutional market views turned neutral. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 5 bullish, 22 neutral, and 3 bearish. 17% of institutions are bullish, believing that the warming of easing expectations and the decline in capital interest rates establish a favorable environment, combined with fundamental support and reverse layout opportunities. The bond market has a ceiling but also room below, showing a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. 73% of institutions are neutral, thinking that the recovery of the fundamentals and supply pressure pose a suppression, but the allocation force and loose capital supply provide support, and the regulatory desirable range restricts the downward space. The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations. 10% of institutions are bearish, expecting that the lack of confidence during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reverse, the long - term low - interest - rate expectation faces correction, and in the short term, under the suppression of supply shocks and the recovery of risk appetite, the bond market still has downward pressure [13]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was 0.00, an increase of 0.15 compared with January 13th - January 19th. The sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral view, with 5 bullish, 16 neutral, and 5 bearish. 19% of institutions are bullish, believing that the expected cooling of the stock market and hedging demand form a bullish support. The long - term decline of the population and real estate cycles establishes a low - interest - rate environment, combined with the warming of expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts and the alleviation of previous suppression factors, the bond market sentiment is significantly bullish. 62% of institutions are neutral, stating that although the expectation of MLF interest rate cuts and moderately loose monetary policy provide some support, under the money - attracting effect of the stock market and the constraints of the central bank's desirable range, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. 19% of institutions are bearish, believing that the long - term fundamentals weaken under the expectation of stable inflation and economic improvement, combined with the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and credit risk disturbances. Without new bullish factors, it is difficult to break through the central bank's range downward [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of ultra-long bonds in 2025 is estimated. The supply pressure is expected to be high in February, August - September, with a monthly issuance scale possibly exceeding 70 billion yuan. The supply of ultra-long bonds will affect the term spread of ultra-long bonds and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds. The term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly, and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow [7][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Ultra-long Bond Supply Estimation - Ultra-long general treasury bonds have a small supply and are expected to be issued concentratedly from January - April and November - December. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 30-year and 50-year general treasury bonds is 30 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively [10] - Ultra-long special treasury bonds are expected to have high supply pressure in May, August - September. The total annual issuance is 1.3 trillion yuan. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year special treasury bonds is 5 - 6 billion yuan, 6 - 7 billion yuan, and 4 - 4.5 billion yuan respectively [12] - The proportion of ultra-long bonds in local special bonds has increased, and the issuance is expected to surge from August - September. The assumed proportion of ultra-long bonds remains at 69.2%. The monthly issuance scale may exceed 50 billion yuan [15] - Ultra-long local refinancing bonds are expected to be issued by June, with controllable supply pressure. The monthly issuance scale from May - June is estimated to be 14.98 billion yuan [17] 2. Impact on the Bond Market - As the issuance of ultra-long bonds increases, the term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly. The impact of ultra-long bond supply on the term spread is asymmetric. When issuance is high, the term spread is supported but rarely widens significantly; when issuance is low, the term spread is significantly compressed [20] - The spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow. When the supply of ultra-long treasury bonds is relatively large, the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds tends to narrow, and vice versa [21]