Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the funding situation continued to tighten near the half - year mark, and MLF was scaled back. The bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, and both the term spread and the variety spread remained flat [1][9][36] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. Considering that the funding rate will decline again after the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but the term spread protection is limited [2][10] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The bond market is more likely to rise after the half - year mark, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, due to the Israel - Iran cease - fire, tightened funding near the half - year mark, and MLF scaling back, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Trading activity increased significantly, and both term and variety spreads remained flat [1][9][36] 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of June 27, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May GDP growth rate was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still higher than the annual target. May CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but term spread protection is limited [2][10] 20 - year CDB Bond - As of June 27, the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond spread was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Economic data shows similar characteristics as the 30 - year treasury bond situation. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but variety spread protection is limited [3][11] 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of May 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 21.6823 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [12] 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 389.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [17] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 33.6 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [21] 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 1.3892 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.2% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [23] Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term and different - variety ultra - long bonds changed to varying degrees [36] Spread Analysis - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP. The variety spread also remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond spread was 4BP, and the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond spread was 9BP [42][43] 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.89 yuan, a decline of 0.35%. Trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and open interest increased slightly [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the situation of the trade war was uncertain, causing the bond market to fluctuate. With a loose funding environment and the overnight interest rate dropping back to 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the week. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - For the 30-year treasury bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economy in April still showed resilience. The estimated year-on-year GDP growth rate in April was about 4.1%, a 0.8% decline from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. In terms of inflation, the CPI in April was -0.1% and the PPI was -2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent easing of Sino-US trade frictions and the dissipation of investors' pessimistic expectations, the short-term focus will shift to the domestic economic data of the second quarter. It is expected that as the policy support effect weakens, the bond yield is more likely to decline. However, the current term spread of the 30-year treasury bond is still low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - For the 20-year CDB bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economic situation in April was similar to that of the 30-year treasury bond. It is also expected that the bond yield will decline as the policy support effect weakens. However, the current variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is still low, providing limited protection [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, due to the uncertain trade war situation and a loose funding environment with the overnight interest rate at 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The trading activity increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: As analyzed above for the 30-year treasury bond and 20-year CDB bond [2][3]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of May 31, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds was low, totaling 117.7 billion yuan, a significant decrease compared to the week before last. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 104.9 billion yuan, and by term, 20-year bonds accounted for 56.5 billion yuan [19]. - **Upcoming Issuance This Week**: The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 108.1 billion yuan, including 71 billion yuan of ultra-long treasury bonds and 37.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a turnover of 903.9 billion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the total bond turnover. Compared to the week before last, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover increasing by 42.2 billion yuan and the proportion increasing by 0.2% [28][29]. - **Yield**: Affected by the trade war and the funding environment, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds had different changes, such as the 15-year treasury bond yield decreasing by 2BP to 1.85% [36]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, a 6BP increase from the week before last, at the 6% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also widened but was at a low absolute level. The spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 2BP, and the spread between the 20-year railway bond and the treasury bond was 7BP, with changes of 0BP and 2BP respectively from the week before last, at the 2% and 3% quantiles since 2010 [48]. 3.4 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.41 yuan, a decrease of 0.16%. The total trading volume was 408,900 lots (-60,932 lots), and the open interest was 113,500 lots (-15,740 lots), showing a slight decline in both [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of ultra-long bonds in 2025 is estimated. The supply pressure is expected to be high in February, August - September, with a monthly issuance scale possibly exceeding 70 billion yuan. The supply of ultra-long bonds will affect the term spread of ultra-long bonds and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds. The term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly, and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow [7][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Ultra-long Bond Supply Estimation - Ultra-long general treasury bonds have a small supply and are expected to be issued concentratedly from January - April and November - December. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 30-year and 50-year general treasury bonds is 30 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively [10] - Ultra-long special treasury bonds are expected to have high supply pressure in May, August - September. The total annual issuance is 1.3 trillion yuan. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year special treasury bonds is 5 - 6 billion yuan, 6 - 7 billion yuan, and 4 - 4.5 billion yuan respectively [12] - The proportion of ultra-long bonds in local special bonds has increased, and the issuance is expected to surge from August - September. The assumed proportion of ultra-long bonds remains at 69.2%. The monthly issuance scale may exceed 50 billion yuan [15] - Ultra-long local refinancing bonds are expected to be issued by June, with controllable supply pressure. The monthly issuance scale from May - June is estimated to be 14.98 billion yuan [17] 2. Impact on the Bond Market - As the issuance of ultra-long bonds increases, the term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly. The impact of ultra-long bond supply on the term spread is asymmetric. When issuance is high, the term spread is supported but rarely widens significantly; when issuance is low, the term spread is significantly compressed [20] - The spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow. When the supply of ultra-long treasury bonds is relatively large, the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds tends to narrow, and vice versa [21]