证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 03 日 冠盛股份（605088.SH） 北美无惧关税扰动，非经常项目和减值拖累盈利 中游制造/汽车 公司 Q2 收入 11.4 亿元，同比/环比+1.2%/+27.7%；Q2 归母净利润 0.8 亿元， 同比/环比-14.8%/-7.3%。上半年北美收入 5.3 亿元，同比+18.8%，体现强劲的 增长韧性。维持"增持"评级。 ❑ 减值和非经常项目影响盈利，毛利率稳定。 ❑ 风险提示：汇率波动、海外需求波动、贸易战风险 | 财务数据与估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 3180 | 4020 | 4507 | 5177 | 5953 | | 同比增长 | 8% | 26% | 12% | 15% | 15% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 337 | 335 | 435 | 530 | 634 | | 同比增长 | 21% | -1% | 30% | 22% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [3][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4,020 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 298 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5% [4][6]. - The company is actively advancing its solid-state battery business, having established a research institute in collaboration with Dongchi to enhance R&D and industrialization efforts [8][9]. - The company’s revenue growth is robust across various regions, with North America showing a significant increase of 42% year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4,020 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26% year-on-year. The net profit was 298 million yuan, reflecting a 5% increase [4][6]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 25.51%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to the impact of lower-margin products [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region in 2024: Europe 1,470 million yuan (+14% YoY), North America 910 million yuan (+42% YoY), Asia and Africa 710 million yuan (+13% YoY), domestic 600 million yuan (+78% YoY), South America 320 million yuan (+19% YoY) [6]. - Revenue by product in 2024: Drive shafts 1,480 million yuan (+23% YoY), constant velocity joints 580 million yuan (+9% YoY), wheel hub bearings 660 million yuan (+27% YoY), rubber dampers 390 million yuan (+23% YoY), corner modules 420 million yuan (+40% YoY), and other revenues 480 million yuan (+66% YoY) [6]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The company incurred sales, management, and R&D expenses totaling 601 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.46% [7]. - Financial expenses increased to 1.23 million yuan, primarily due to higher convertible bond interest expenses and reduced exchange gains [7]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 381 million yuan, 475 million yuan, and 582 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 13, and 11 [9][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the industrialization progress of the solid-state battery business, which could provide significant growth potential [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 40.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [7] - The company has shown strong revenue growth in North America and domestically, with new products continuously being developed [7] - The automotive aftermarket is considered to have stable attributes, and the company's high growth in revenue in North America and domestically is expected to be sustainable [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 40.20 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.4% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.98 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 25.5%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company anticipates a net profit of 3.8 billion yuan in 2025, 4.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.8 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 28%, 20%, and 28% [7] Regional Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from Europe is expected to be 14.7 billion yuan (up 14% year-on-year), North America 9.1 billion yuan (up 42%), Asia and Africa 7.1 billion yuan (up 13%), domestic revenue 6.0 billion yuan (up 78%), and South America 3.2 billion yuan (up 19%) [7] - The revenue from the product categories includes: drive shafts 14.8 billion yuan (up 23%), constant velocity joints 5.8 billion yuan (up 9%), hub bearings 6.6 billion yuan (up 27%), rubber dampers 3.9 billion yuan (up 23%), corner modules 4.2 billion yuan (up 40%), and others 4.8 billion yuan (up 66%) [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18.04, 15.04, and 11.79 respectively [6] - The projected P/B ratios for the same years are 2.42, 2.08, and 1.77 [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratios are projected to be 12.49, 10.44, and 8.26 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]