公司公告：1月23日，公司发布2025年第四季度及全年营运状况，第四季度特步主品牌线上线下全渠道 零售销售流水同比持平，零售折扣7.0-7.5折；索康尼品牌线上线下全渠道零售销售流水同比增长超过 30%；2025全年，特步主品牌全渠道零售销售流水同比增长低单位数，年末渠道库销比约4.5个月；索 康尼品牌线上线下全渠道零售销售流水同比增长超过30%。 国信纺服观点 第四季度特步主品牌流水同比持平、跑步品类表现亮眼，折扣保持稳定，库存小幅上升；索康尼流水增 长30%，迈乐流水增长双位数。 投资建议：看好主品牌发挥跑步品类优势销售稳健增长，专业运动品牌快速增长盈利提升。公司聚焦跑 步领域、发挥跑步品类专业优势，四季度在气温和春节延迟的负面因素影响下，主品牌流水保持同比持 平，跑鞋品类及核心系列"两千公里"、"冠军家族"表现亮眼；专业运动品牌索康尼环比提速至30%以上 增长，全年30%的增速达成管理层此前指引。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，看好特步国际(01368)未来主品牌聚焦大众市场获得稳健增 速，索康尼和迈乐分别聚焦"双精英人群"和户外，保持较快增速，并在未来3-5年盈利持续提升。该行 维持盈利预测 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][7] Core Views - The company's main brand retail sales in Q3 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, while the Saucony brand experienced over 20% growth [2][3] - The management maintains the annual guidance, indicating stable growth prospects for the main brand and strong performance for the professional sports brand [3][6] - The company focuses on the running category, leveraging its expertise to achieve steady sales growth, with Saucony and another brand, Maile, targeting specific consumer segments for faster growth [3][9] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The main brand's retail sales in Q3 grew low single digits year-on-year, with better performance in July and August compared to September [4] - Online sales outperformed offline sales, with children's products showing stronger growth than adult products, particularly in functional categories like running and outdoor [4] Retail Discounts and Inventory - Retail discounts for the main brand remained stable at 70-75%, with inventory turnover ratio stable at 4.0-4.5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [5] Brand Growth - Saucony's sales grew over 20%, with strategic adjustments made to reduce low-priced products in e-commerce and tighten discounts [6] - The management expects Saucony's revenue growth to exceed 30% in 2025, with profits anticipated to grow over 10% [6] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 1.4 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [3][10] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [3][9]

Group 1: Xtep International Performance - Xtep's main brand retail revenue in 2Q25 achieved low single-digit year-on-year growth, with overall revenue growth in 1H25 also in single digits [1] - Offline sales remained stable with slight growth, while online sales outpaced offline; children's products grew faster than adult products, and footwear outperformed apparel [1] - Functional products accounted for over 60% of the main brand's offerings, with running and outdoor categories leading the growth [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The sales performance in April and May was better than in June, attributed to the May Day holiday and the earlier start of the 618 shopping festival compared to the previous year [1] - The company maintained a discount rate of 70-75%, with expectations for the annual discount to remain at current levels due to healthy inventory [1] - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) strategy is set to launch in 2H25, with plans to recover approximately 500 stores, representing about 8% of the total store count [1] Group 3: Competitor Analysis - Saucony's revenue in 1H25 grew over 30%, with 1Q growth exceeding 40% and 2Q growth over 20%, maintaining a target of 30%-40% growth for the year [2] - Saucony focuses on high-end positioning and brand upgrades, tightening online discounts and reducing low-priced product offerings [2] - The brand aims to enhance its presence in high-tier cities with new store openings and plans to increase investment in trail running products [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Xtep is projected to achieve revenues of 144.14 billion, 154.32 billion, and 165.17 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 7.1%, and 7.0% respectively [3] - The expected net profit for Xtep for 2025-2027 is 13.8 billion, 15.1 billion, and 16.6 billion RMB, with growth rates of 11.3%, 9.7%, and 9.7% respectively [3] - The company maintains a valuation of 11.5X PE for 2025, with a target price of 6.1 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.0% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][8] Core Views - The company's main brand saw low single-digit growth in retail sales for the second quarter, while the Saucony brand experienced over 30% growth [3][4] - The overall performance for the first half of the year aligns with the annual guidance, with stable discounts and inventory levels [4][5] - The management maintains the annual guidance, aiming for over 10% profit growth [6][8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the second quarter, the main brand's retail sales growth was low single-digit year-on-year, with discounts ranging from 7.0 to 7.5 [3][5] - The Saucony brand's retail sales grew over 20% year-on-year, with a focus on reducing low-priced products in e-commerce to synchronize online and offline offerings [6][8] Financial Forecasts - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [4][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 14.3 billion, with a growth rate of 5.4% [9] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on the running category to leverage its professional advantages, with expectations for steady growth in the main brand and rapid growth in professional sports brands like Saucony and Maile [4][8] - The management anticipates that the main brand will achieve stable growth in the mass market, while Saucony and Maile will target specific elite groups and outdoor markets for faster growth [4][8]