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三全食品(002216):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:首次覆盖:延续承压,期待改善
Haitong Securities International· 2025-04-28 14:36
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 12.84 per share [4][14]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing performance pressure due to weak demand and intense competition in the industry, with expectations for improvement in future operations [1][15]. - The company is a leading player in the frozen rice and flour products sector, with promising growth from new categories and channels [14][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at RMB 7,056 million, with a projected decline to RMB 6,632 million in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to RMB 6,812 million in 2025 [3][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 749 million in 2023 to RMB 542 million in 2024, with a gradual increase to RMB 641 million by 2027 [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 0.62 in 2024, increasing to RMB 0.73 by 2027 [3][14]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the retail and innovation market revenue is expected to be RMB 5.19 billion, down 7.8% year-on-year, while the catering market revenue is projected to increase by 1.06% to RMB 1.45 billion [17]. - Revenue from frozen rice and flour products is anticipated to be RMB 5.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a decline of 3.95% [17]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q4 2024 is expected to be 21.48%, down 1.28 percentage points year-on-year, with a recurring net profit margin of 6.77% [16][15]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is projected to decline from 17.3% in 2023 to 12.3% in 2024, stabilizing at 12.0% from 2025 to 2027 [3][7]. Market Position - The company is recognized as the largest and most established player in the frozen food industry in China, with a comprehensive cold chain system and a strong brand presence [11][14]. - The company has been actively enhancing product quality and cost-effectiveness while expanding into new channels and improving customized services [17][15].