Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Jinmao (00817.HK) is maintained at "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales performance against market trends, with profit recovery expected to continue through the cycle. The sales amount for the first half of 2025 reached 53.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, marking its entry into the top 10 in the full-caliber sales ranking by CRIC [6][17]. - The company is actively reserving core land parcels to ensure long-term profitability, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 estimated at 1.11 billion, 1.56 billion, and 1.62 billion respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.08, 0.12, and 0.12 [5][9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance and Land Acquisition - The company has adjusted its development strategy since 2023, leading to a continuous improvement in fundamentals after hitting a low point. The sales performance in the first half of 2025 was strong, with a focus on acquiring core land parcels to secure long-term profitability [17]. - The sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 53.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The average signed price for residential properties rose to 22,000 yuan per square meter [24]. - The company has adopted a dual-focus strategy, acquiring 41 projects since 2024, all concentrated in core cities and areas, with an average sales net profit margin exceeding 10% [29]. Investment Properties and Property Services - The investment property segment has been operating steadily, providing stable cash flow despite revenue declines due to the pandemic since 2020. The company focuses on high-quality asset management and gradually exits low-efficiency assets [59]. - The property service segment has seen a year-on-year growth of 11% in management scale, reaching 1.1 million square meters in the first half of 2025, with 85% of new projects located in strategically important cities [7]. Financial Status and Debt Structure - The company has maintained a robust financial status, optimizing its domestic and foreign debt structure and reducing financing costs. The average financing cost for new domestic and foreign financing in the first half of 2025 was 2.70%, down by 0.69 percentage points from the end of 2024 [8]. - The company has successfully issued multiple low-interest bonds, and its debt structure remains healthy, with all three red lines maintained in the green [8]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 showing a positive trend. The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.11 billion, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13.5 [9][5]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong sales performance, strategic land acquisitions, and expected recovery in profitability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is undergoing a significant transformation from "development logic" to "operation logic," with China Jinmao emerging as a pioneer in this shift, leveraging its full-cycle asset management capabilities to create a stable and certain "second growth curve" through premium holding businesses [1]. Group 1: Business Strategy and Growth - China Jinmao is focusing on a full-cycle asset management approach, which includes investment, financing, construction, management, and exit strategies, to establish a new commercial ecosystem that spans from urban cores to community ends [1]. - The company has expanded its portfolio to 80 held and operational projects, totaling approximately 3.6 million square meters, with an additional nearly 6 million square meters in construction or planning, covering major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1]. Group 2: Commercial Development - The "second growth curve" is supported by three main commercial product lines: "Lanxiu City," "Jinmao Hui," and "Fengmao Li," which cater to urban-level, regional quality, and community-specific commercial developments, respectively [2]. - The Lanxiu City project in Changsha serves as a benchmark for urban commercial development, maintaining a rental rate of 98% over nine years and leading regional sales and foot traffic [2][3]. Group 3: Community and Regional Projects - The Nanjing Lanxiu City is branded as a "young energy field," attracting a new generation of consumers with trendy stores and quality dining experiences [3]. - The Tianjin Jinmao Hui showcases unique industrial heritage transformation, preserving historical elements while integrating modern commercial spaces [5]. Group 4: Light Asset Management - China Jinmao is exploring light asset management strategies, as seen in the Qinwang Water Street project in Hangzhou, which opened with over 100,000 visitors on its first day and features nearly 70 quality brands [9]. - The company is also expanding its hotel operations through light asset management, with successful openings planned for 2025 [9]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Market Position - China Jinmao ranks 14th in the "2024 Domestic Real Estate Company Operating Income Ranking" by CRIC, recognized as one of the fastest-growing state-owned enterprises in terms of operating income [10]. - The company is building a sustainable long-term development ecosystem supported by premium holdings, light asset operations, and REITs listings, ensuring a stable cash flow and strong performance [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price range of 1.18 to 1.24 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% to 26% from the current price of 1.06 HKD [5][3][19]. Core Insights - The company has successfully turned around its performance, achieving profitability in 2024 due to reduced inventory impairment provisions, improved gross margins in development, decreased operating expenses, and increased contributions from joint ventures [1][19][3]. - The company maintains a diversified business structure, focusing on urban and property development, commercial leasing, hotel operations, and property services, with urban and property development accounting for over 80% of its revenue [1][15][19]. - The company has a strong sales performance, ranking 12th in the industry with sales of 98.3 billion RMB in 2024, and has a healthy land bank with 87% of unsold value located in first- and second-tier cities [2][62][83]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a platform enterprise in urban operations under China National Chemical Corporation, with a stable shareholding structure and diversified business segments [1][11][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 59.1 billion RMB, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [4][19][17]. - The company has cumulatively recognized 17.4 billion RMB in impairments since 2020, with a significant reduction in impairment provisions in 2024 [3][21]. Business Segments - **Urban and Property Development**: The company launched a new product line, contributing 49.2 billion RMB in revenue, with a gross margin of 11% [31][19]. - **Commercial Leasing and Retail Operations**: This segment generated 1.6 billion RMB in revenue, with a high occupancy rate and stable rental income [46][47]. - **Hotel Operations**: The hotel segment faced challenges, generating 1.7 billion RMB in revenue, with a gross margin of 36% [54][56]. - **Property Services**: The property services segment, which was spun off in 2022, contributed 3 billion RMB in revenue, reflecting a 10% increase [58][60]. Sales and Land Bank - The company achieved sales of 98.3 billion RMB in 2024, with a sales area of 5.82 million square meters and an average selling price of 16,887 RMB per square meter [62][68]. - The company has a robust land bank, with unsold value of approximately 280 billion RMB, primarily located in economically developed regions [83][84]. Debt Management - The company has optimized its debt structure, with a reasonable debt maturity profile and a reduction in the proportion of short-term debt to 18% [89][90].