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出口宽松预期下,抢出口+供需改善有望推动稀土供需共振
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-12-02 23:30
Industry Overview - The domestic market prices for gadolinium and europium remain stable, with gadolinium oxide priced at 185,000 yuan/ton, europium oxide at 180,000 yuan/ton, gadolinium iron alloy at 180,000 yuan/ton, and yttrium oxide at 49,000 yuan/ton [1] - The light rare earth market is experiencing price increases, but downstream demand is still in a stage of on-demand procurement, indicating that prices are likely to fluctuate in the short term [1] Global Market Dynamics - Global production of rare earth permanent magnets is still highly concentrated in China, and the release of overseas production capacity will take time. China remains the only country with a complete rare earth industrial chain [1] - The overall scale of the rare earth industry chain in the West is significantly lower than that of China, with notable shortcomings in their industrial chains [1] Supply and Demand Outlook - As of December, smelting plants may face mass shutdowns due to policy and raw material issues. In October, China's magnetic material exports increased by 16% year-on-year but decreased by 5% month-on-month [1] - Expectations for more relaxed export conditions in the future lead to a more optimistic outlook on demand. The combination of external export competition and ongoing supply-side reforms suggests a potential resonance in rare earth supply and demand, with expectations for continued valuation and performance growth in the rare earth sector [1] Company Insights - Jinli Permanent Magnet is identified as a leading supplier of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials [1] - Inlohua primarily engages in the production and sales of neodymium-iron-boron magnetic materials, micro-special motors, health equipment, and electronic acoustic products. Currently, the company's motors and reducers have limited applications in industrial robots [1]
上周稀土原料价格小幅调整,钕铁硼价格保持平稳
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-03-25 09:57
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][12] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 2.82% last week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 0.53 percentage points. The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 1.7x to 65.9x, currently at the 81st percentile of historical levels [5][12] - Despite a slight weakening in rare earth prices, the downward space is limited due to stable production and relatively tight supply at the mining end. The demand side has not shown significant new orders, keeping prices stable for the time being. The overall demand in the air conditioning sector remains strong, with production and sales expected to maintain steady growth in the coming quarter [12][35] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 1% over one month, 6% over three months, and 11% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 0%, 5%, and 21% respectively [4] Price Trends - Last week, the prices of light rare earth minerals remained stable, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore at 26,000 CNY/ton, and heavy rare earth minerals also holding steady [6] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium weakened slightly, with the average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 444,500 CNY/ton, and the metal price down by 0.18% to 544,500 CNY/ton [7] - Dysprosium prices fell by 2.05% to 1,675 CNY/kg, while terbium prices decreased by 0.98% to 6,560 CNY/kg [8] Industry Demand - The production and sales of household air conditioners showed double-digit growth in January and February 2025, with production at 16.785 million units (up 42.9%) and sales at 16.790 million units (up 36.3%) [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the rare earth raw material production remains stable and inventory is low, the overall industry performance is still at a recovery stage. The absolute and relative historical valuation levels are high, indicating potential overvaluation pressure. The recommendation to maintain an "Overweight" rating reflects the expectation of steady demand growth in the industrial sector [12][35]