再推【稀土】：稀土板块进入击球区 20260129 摘要 内需和外需都表现强劲。在内需方面，主要来自新能源车、传统车、风电、工 业机器人、电瓶车等领域。这些领域对稀土磁铁的需求占比较大，如果补贴政 策能够延续，将对需求产生强烈刺激效果。我们预计内需总增速能达到 10%以 上。在外需方面，由于地缘政治因素和出口管制措施，海外市场对中国稀土产 品的依赖度较高，因此海外自发补库需求也会很强。 具体来说，哪些因素推动了加工费的大幅上涨？ 2026 年预计将是稀土行业供给侧结构性改革真正实施并提升集中度的 一年，此前的高增长阶段（2021-2024 年）将显著放缓，但供应仍将 增长。 稀土内需受益于新能源车、传统车、风电等领域的需求增长，预计总增 速达 10%以上。外需方面，地缘政治和出口管制导致海外市场对中国稀 土依赖度高，补库需求强劲。 稀土加工费大幅上涨，从去年 8 月到今年 1 月涨至每吨 4 万元，反映出 冶炼企业集中度提高和不合规企业开工率下降，供给侧改革效果显著。 基于供需共振逻辑，稀土价格仍有上升空间。当前下游企业利润率在 15%-20%之间，未达负反馈阶段。美国 MP 公司与国防部签订的氧化 钴最低补 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal industry index has shown strong performance, with significant increases in key stocks and the potential for improved export processes due to new licenses [1] - As of December 5, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 2.67%, with notable stock increases including Jinli Permanent Magnet (10.32%), Zhongfu Industrial (9.85%), and Zhongke Sanhuan (9.30%) [1] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also increased by 2.42%, marking a third consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.82 yuan [1] Group 2 - Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhongke Sanhuan, and Ningbo Yunsheng have obtained general export licenses, which are expected to simplify export processes for rare earth permanent magnet companies and accelerate delivery speeds [1] - According to Guojin Securities, there may be mass production halts in smelting plants due to policy and raw material reasons, while October's magnetic material export volume saw a year-on-year increase of 16% but a month-on-month decrease of 5% [1] - The expectation of more relaxed export conditions and ongoing supply-side reforms may lead to a positive outlook for the rare earth supply-demand dynamics, with a comprehensive bullish view on the sector [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and includes 50 securities that reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, accounting for a total of 52.34% of the index [2]

Industry Overview - The domestic market prices for gadolinium and europium remain stable, with gadolinium oxide priced at 185,000 yuan/ton, europium oxide at 180,000 yuan/ton, gadolinium iron alloy at 180,000 yuan/ton, and yttrium oxide at 49,000 yuan/ton [1] - The light rare earth market is experiencing price increases, but downstream demand is still in a stage of on-demand procurement, indicating that prices are likely to fluctuate in the short term [1] Global Market Dynamics - Global production of rare earth permanent magnets is still highly concentrated in China, and the release of overseas production capacity will take time. China remains the only country with a complete rare earth industrial chain [1] - The overall scale of the rare earth industry chain in the West is significantly lower than that of China, with notable shortcomings in their industrial chains [1] Supply and Demand Outlook - As of December, smelting plants may face mass shutdowns due to policy and raw material issues. In October, China's magnetic material exports increased by 16% year-on-year but decreased by 5% month-on-month [1] - Expectations for more relaxed export conditions in the future lead to a more optimistic outlook on demand. The combination of external export competition and ongoing supply-side reforms suggests a potential resonance in rare earth supply and demand, with expectations for continued valuation and performance growth in the rare earth sector [1] Company Insights - Jinli Permanent Magnet is identified as a leading supplier of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials [1] - Inlohua primarily engages in the production and sales of neodymium-iron-boron magnetic materials, micro-special motors, health equipment, and electronic acoustic products. Currently, the company's motors and reducers have limited applications in industrial robots [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with significant growth in the rare earth ETF, driven by rising prices and increased demand expectations due to delayed export control measures [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 4, 2025, the China Rare Earth Industry Index decreased by 0.71%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. - Baotou Steel (包钢股份) led the gains with an increase of 4.14%, while Shengxin Lithium Energy (盛新锂能) experienced the largest decline [1][6]. - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest (嘉实) saw a trading volume of 62.65 million yuan, with a significant growth of 5.327 billion yuan in the last three months, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The rare earth ETF has seen an increase of 866 million shares in the past month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - Over the past 18 trading days, the ETF attracted a total of 1.675 billion yuan in inflows [3]. - As of November 3, 2025, the net value of the rare earth ETF has increased by 86.47% over the past two years, placing it in the top 4.41% of index equity funds [3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - According to Guojin Securities, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 6.08% week-on-week, driven by increased demand expectations and delayed export control measures [4]. - The overall sentiment in the rare earth sector is bullish, with expectations of a supply-demand resonance due to external export pressures and ongoing supply reforms [4]. - Guosheng Securities highlights the broad market potential for rare earth recycling and magnetic materials, anticipating rapid growth in related companies' performance as rare earth prices recover [4]. Group 4: Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for 61.61% of the index, with Northern Rare Earth (北方稀土) holding the largest weight at 17.20% [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently consolidating, with the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) experiencing fluctuations, ultimately closing down by 1.69% despite an early gain of over 2% [1][3]. Market Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) had a total trading volume of 57.74 million yuan and a latest scale of 606 million yuan as of October 16, with an average daily trading volume of 12.2 million yuan in October [1]. - Among the three ETFs tracking the same index, this ETF leads in both scale and liquidity [1]. Component Stocks - Notable performers include the copper leader Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, which hit the daily limit, and lithium leaders Shengxin Lithium and Zhongfu Industrial, both rising over 2% [3]. - The top ten gainers included five gold leaders, with Western Gold rising over 3% and Zhongjin Gold increasing over 2% [3]. - Conversely, stocks like Bowei Alloy and Chuangjiang New Materials saw declines exceeding 6%, negatively impacting the index [3]. Gold Price Influences - International gold prices are approaching 4,400 USD/ounce, driven by three main factors: 1. Historical trends show gold prices typically rise during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycles, with an average increase of 6% within 60 days of such announcements [4]. 2. The recent U.S. government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, increasing demand for gold [5]. 3. The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and diversification of reserve currencies is expected to sustain global central bank gold purchases, with global official gold reserves reaching a record high of 36,274 tons as of June [5]. Future Gold Price Predictions - Some institutions remain optimistic about gold prices, with Bank of America predicting a potential rise to 6,000 USD in spring 2024 [6]. - Current allocations of gold in global investment portfolios are relatively low, indicating room for growth [6]. Sector Opportunities - The rare earth sector is expected to see significant performance in Q3, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources projecting substantial profit increases due to rising prices and capacity releases [6]. - In lithium, advancements in solid-state battery technology are anticipated to boost demand, with leading companies maintaining a high self-sufficiency rate in lithium supply [7]. - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, particularly from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is crucial for energy transition and new production capabilities [7]. Long-term Outlook - The nonferrous metals sector is positioned as a key player in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing demand for strategic metal resources [8]. - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) offers a diversified investment approach across various metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which can mitigate risks associated with investing in a single metal [10].