对话稀土专家：如何解读稀土价格 20250514 摘要 • 四月市场悲观情绪导致稀土价格下跌至 405 元，但中美贸易谈判后，稀土 价格反弹至 435 元，磁钢出口许可证发放超预期，提振市场信心，钴锂、 镝铁合金价格亦开始上涨。 • 稀土供应端自四月以来显著减量，废料处理和原矿生产指标均下降，而中 美贸易缓和及出口管制放松刺激需求，持证大型企业磁钢批量出口，可能 导致需求翻倍，供应短缺。 • 镝铁合金和氧化镝价格稳定，氧化铽价格大幅上涨，预计 2025 年氧化铽 存在 150 吨以上缺口，若出口管制放松，缺口将扩大，全年价格或达 900 万至 1,000 万元以上。 • 五月稀土市场或迎爆发点，前期出口管制及价格下跌导致下游及中间商库 存低位，若需求暴增，重稀土氧化物价格可能突破 50 万元，中美贸易预 期是主要驱动力。 • 磁钢出口申报流程加快，企业已陆续获得出口许可，特别是高端稀土钕铁 硼磁钢，深加工产品出口情况改善，预示行业前景乐观，政策预期积极。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）以来稀土市场的供需情况如何？ 今年以来，稀土市场的关注度一直很高。从清明节前到清明节后，包括到 5 月 份中美谈判超预期，期间经 ...

智通财经APP获悉，5月9日，国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行 动，加强战略矿产资源出口管制事关国家安全和发展利益。国家对镓、锗、锑、钨、中重稀土等战略矿 产实施出口管制以来，部分境外实体与境内不法人员相互勾结，不断翻新走私出口手法，试图逃避打 击。为避免战略矿产非法外流、遏制走私势头、切实维护国家安全，同时促进合规贸易、保障产供链稳 定，打击战略矿产走私出口成为当前迫切且重要的工作任务。相关概念股：金力永磁(06680)、中国稀 土(00769)、中国铝业(02600)。 4月4日，中国商务部会同海关总署发布关于对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实 施出口管制措施的公告，并于发布之日起正式实施。此举被视为对特朗普政府对中国加征所谓"对等关 税"的反击。 值得一提的是，国内管制措施实施后仅短短几周时间，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克就在4月22日表示， 其"擎天柱"人形机器人的生产受到了中国对稀土磁体出口限制的影响。 此外，早前海外稀土企业Lynas、MP Materials分别受到了一季度减产和停止出口影响，也或加剧了海外 稀土市场的短缺格局。 相关概念股： 另一方 ...

| | 答:您好！2024年公司受原材料价格走低、行业竞争加剧等因素 | | --- | --- | | | 影响，产品价格及毛利率有所下降，导致整体盈利空间受到挤压， | | | 公司净利润下降。谢谢。 | | | 3.中科磁业是否涉及与人形机器人公司合作 | | | 答:您好！公司始终以市场需求为导向，紧密关注并跟进行业技 | | | 术发展趋势。目前公司在机器人领域与超轻量仿人机械臂行业客户 | | | 建立合作，但尚未形成规模销售，产生收入较少，截至目前对公司 | | | 的经营业绩不会产生重大影响。公司相关信息均以在指定媒体和巨 | | | 潮资讯网刊登的公告为准。 | | | 4.高管您好，请问贵公司未来盈利增长的主要驱动因素有哪 | | | 些？谢谢。 | | | 答:您好！短期来看，随着募投项目部分投产和下游需求回暖， | | | 公司产能瓶颈将逐步缓解，规模效应有望提升毛利水平；长期而 | | | 言，永磁铁氧体瞄准行业前三产能目标，钕铁硼向高性能、高附加 | | | 值领域转型，叠加新能源汽车、机器人等新兴市场拓展，有望构建 | | | "传统 + 新兴"双增长曲线。谢谢。 | | | 5 ...

业绩概要：2024年公司实现营业收入67.63亿元（+1.13%），归母净利润2.91亿元（-48.37%），扣非后 归母净利润为 1.70 亿元（-65.49%），对应 EPS 为 0.22 元。公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1.2 元，公司2024年累计现金分红总额为2.71亿元，占公司归母净利润的比例为93%，2025Q1公司实现营业 收入17.54亿元（同比+14.19%，环比+0.29%），实现归母净利润1.61亿元（同比+57.85%，环比 +70.48%）。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅波动、募投项目进程不及预期、终端需求不及预期等。 进一步完善产能扩张蓝图：截至2024年年底，公司具备3.8万吨的钕铁硼毛坯年产能，预计在2025年将 建成4万吨高性能稀土永磁材料产能及先进的人形机器人磁组件生产线。2025 年 1月，公司积极响应国 家关于全力建设"两个稀土基地"的政策，根据未来新能源汽车、变频空调、人形机器人等市场需求，公 司决定于包头基地投资建设"年产2万吨高性能稀土永磁材料绿色智造项目"，力争到2027年建成6万吨高 性能稀土永磁材料产能，并具备先进的人形机器人磁组件生产线。 股权激励调 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a projected decline in rare earth material prices in 2024, the company is expected to see an increase in sales volume of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials by 37.88% to 20,900 tons, although profit growth may not match revenue growth due to raw material cost fluctuations and intensified industry competition [1][2] - The average price of metal praseodymium and neodymium is expected to drop to 490,000 yuan per ton in 2024, a decrease of approximately 25% from the average of 650,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [1] - The company's gross profit margin is projected to decrease to 11.13% in 2024 from 16.07% in 2023, reflecting a reduction of 4.94 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to produce 21,600 tons of neodymium-iron-boron magnetic steel products in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.40%, driven by the commissioning of ongoing projects [2] - By the end of 2024, the company will have a production capacity of 38,000 tons per year for high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials, with plans to reach 40,000 tons by 2025 [2] - The price of rare earth materials has shown signs of stabilization since Q2 2024, with a projected 11% increase in metal praseodymium and neodymium prices by the end of March 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in business profitability [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.763 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48.37% to 291 million yuan [1] - The production of neodymium-iron-boron magnetic steel reached 21,600 tons in 2024, a 42.40% increase, with a production capacity of 38,000 tons per year by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The average price of rare earths is expected to decline by 25% in 2024, with a recovery trend observed in early 2025 [1] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.749 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.84% and a net profit of 94 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 36.23% year-on-year [1] - The sales price of neodymium-iron-boron magnetic steel fell to 283,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25.69% year-on-year, impacting overall profitability [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 11.08%, down 4.24 percentage points from the previous year, with a unit gross profit of 31,400 yuan per ton, a decline of 46.25% [2] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its production capacity to 60,000 tons of high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials by 2027, with new projects underway [2] - The company is actively exploring new application areas such as humanoid robots and low-altitude flying vehicles, with significant revenue growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and industrial servos [3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 8.953 billion, 9.883 billion, and 10.852 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 557 million, 779 million, and 904 million yuan [3]