Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [3] Group 2: Core View - Raw material supply remains tight, suppressing primary lead production while secondary lead production recovers slowly. High lead prices restrain downstream battery demand, leading to reduced consumption due to enterprise production cuts. Although social inventories are at a historical low, they are expected to accumulate in November with supply recovery and imports. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, with an estimated oscillation range of approximately 16,900 - 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On November 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.40/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,416 lots, an increase of 13,741 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 65,699 lots, a decrease of 393 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,585 yuan/ton and a low of 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Graphs - The report includes 16 graphs covering various aspects such as lead price premiums, mine treatment charges, production rates, inventories, price differences, and battery production rates [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]