铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观风偏再修复，矿价短期走强 | | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 条 目 | 当周值 | | 比 环 | | 同 | 比 | | 50W2025 | | 50W2024 | | 累计同比 | | | 累计同比% | | | | 全球发货量 | 3592 | 5 . | 223 . | 9 | 530 . | 7 | 全球发货 | 156766 | 4 . | 152273 | 7 . | 4492 | 7 . | 3 . | 0% | | | | 澳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side still has an impact, and the futures market has staged a rebound [1]. - The overall situation of the international soybean market remains relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. In the medium to long - term, there is still price pressure on domestic soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is expected to face significant supply - side pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3045, 2848, and 2957 respectively, with price increases of 6, 13, and 10. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2423, 2413, and 2479 respectively, with price increases of 0, 10, and 11. The spot basis and price differences of various varieties and regions are also presented [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of soybean meal are 197, - 109, and - 88 respectively, with changes of - 7, 3, and 4. The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of rapeseed meal are 10, - 66, and 56 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 1, and 11 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 are 622 and 478 respectively, and the oil - meal ratio of 01 is 2.722 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the market has already fully reflected the positive factors. The U.S. soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by changes in soybean exports and crushing. South American supply - side impacts are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery's operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient market supply and increasing提货量. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2008 million tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean inventory was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons (2.65%) from the previous week and 2.3661 million tons (47.57%) compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons (4.49%) from the previous week and 368,700 tons (44.18%) compared to the same period last year. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, the refinery's operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains low, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **U.S. Soybeans**: There are limited bullish factors for U.S. soybeans recently, and the market is mainly in a volatile state. If exports do not improve significantly in the future, it is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state [7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market, and due to the tightening of the South American market, price support is still relatively strong [7]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The current domestic soybean meal market has relatively loose supply and demand, which exerts pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures market. In the medium to long - term, price pressure still exists [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by rumors about Australian rapeseed, the rapeseed meal futures market has declined. The overall market demand is average, and it is expected that the supply - side pressure will still be significant [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Continue to make small - scale long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Implement a strategy of selling wide - straddles [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]