Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of lead remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 41.93 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [2] - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509/2510 contracts; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some suppliers quoted a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead price [3] Futures Market - On August 28, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,885 yuan/ton, closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,152 lots, a decrease of 15,274 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,909 lots, a decrease of 6 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,850 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,880 yuan/ton, closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day [2] Inventory - On August 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2][3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2) Core Viewpoint - The market risk sentiment has recovered, and non - ferrous metals once strengthened. However, the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, so the lead price may remain volatile [3] 3) Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On April 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.91/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all decreased compared with the previous trading day. The lead scrap price also decreased by 100 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 17,005 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 40,549 lots, an increase of 2,570 lots, and the position was 38,819 lots, an increase of 86 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,015 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous afternoon [2] - **Inventory**: On April 28, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from last week. As of April 28, the LME lead inventory was 271,025 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral, and the arbitrage strategy is to be suspended due to the current supply - demand imbalance in the lead market [3]