【头条要闻】 美联储再降息25基点 3人反对 特朗普仍不满意 当地时间12月10日，美联储以9票对3票通过降息决议，宣布降息25个基点，将基准利率下调25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%区间，为年内连续第三次降息，年内累计已下调75基点。 然而，今年第三次降息远非一个容易的决定，一些委员赞成降息以防止就业市场进一步疲软，而其他人 则认为宽松政策已经足够大，可能会加剧通胀。 特朗普在白宫活动上发表讲话，对美联储降息25个基点不满意，他发表评论称，（降息）本来可以翻 倍，至少翻一倍。[相关专题] 11月PPI环比连续两个月上涨，CPI同比创20个月新高 12月10日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，环 比下降0.1%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。值得注意的是，11月 CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高。PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两 个月上涨。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价 格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium has been rising, mainly due to a decrease in supply. The overseas premium has remained high, and the export window has been open. The TC prices at home and abroad have declined, causing smelting costs to face losses. Social inventory has been decreasing while supply pressure has not significantly eased. The fundamentals have turned from bearish to bullish, and zinc is currently undervalued. Despite fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the outlook for future consumption is optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is $120.77 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton with a premium of 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 5 yuan per ton [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton, closed at 22,355 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,212 lots, and the open interest was 100,730 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,280 yuan per ton [2] Inventory Data - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [3] Group 2: Core View - Raw material supply remains tight, suppressing primary lead production while secondary lead production recovers slowly. High lead prices restrain downstream battery demand, leading to reduced consumption due to enterprise production cuts. Although social inventories are at a historical low, they are expected to accumulate in November with supply recovery and imports. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, with an estimated oscillation range of approximately 16,900 - 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On November 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.40/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,416 lots, an increase of 13,741 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 65,699 lots, a decrease of 393 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,585 yuan/ton and a low of 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Graphs - The report includes 16 graphs covering various aspects such as lead price premiums, mine treatment charges, production rates, inventories, price differences, and battery production rates [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Overseas premiums have strengthened further, LME inventories have continued to decline, and the risk of warehouse receipts has intensified. The export profit of refined zinc in China has continued to expand, and the profit of overseas selling for delivery has emerged, which will stimulate later exports and help reduce domestic social inventories. The domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic ores, and the domestic ore TC has continued to decline. Although imported ores are still expensive due to the internal and external zinc price ratio, there is also a possibility that the processing fees will follow suit. In the spot market, with the opening of the export window, the later social inventory is expected to accumulate less than expected, or even show a seasonal de - stocking trend, and the actual consumption performance exceeds expectations. Although smelting still has profits, the comprehensive smelting profit has narrowed due to the decline of domestic TC. If this situation persists or the sulfuric acid price drops, it will also hit the smelting enthusiasm, and the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. The macro - positive factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has begun to change. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $338.74 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 210 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong zinc spot premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,030 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 164,360 lots, and the open interest throughout the trading day was 124,740 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,025 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons compared with the previous period. As of October 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with the previous trading day. [3]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $3500, reaching a new historical high of $3501.030 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.74% [1] - On September 1, international gold prices saw significant increases, with the New York Commodity Exchange's December delivery gold price briefly exceeding $3550 per ounce, marking a historical peak [3] - The domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook increasing their prices by 11 and 10 CNY per gram respectively [3] Group 2 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, contributing to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with an 89.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to the CME FedWatch Tool [5] - The international gold price has experienced a notable upward trend, with an overall increase of over 5% in August, marking the best monthly performance since April [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,333 per ounce, following a significant drop of 0.6% to $3,335.25 per ounce on Thursday, with futures down 0.7% to $3,383.20 [1] - The recent surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, has dampened hopes for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market is evident, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 3,000 to 224,000, which supports the notion that the economy remains robust [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators Impacting Gold - The rise in inflation expectations and the decline in rate cut expectations have led to a 0.5% increase in the U.S. dollar index, reaching 98.25, marking the largest single-day gain in over two weeks [5] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 10-year yield up 5.3 basis points to 4.293% and the 2-year yield up 5.4 basis points to 3.741%, further diminishing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [5] - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may face tough choices between combating inflation and supporting the economy [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is anticipated to influence the geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict [8][10] - Ukrainian President Zelensky and European allies are actively working to prevent any agreements that could jeopardize Ukraine's security during the U.S.-Russia summit [9] Group 4: Investment Outlook - In the short term, gold prices may continue to face pressure due to technical signals turning slightly bearish and the cooling of aggressive rate cut expectations [11] - However, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical situations continue to provide support for gold in the medium to long term [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by rising inflation expectations and changing interest rate forecasts from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - Gold prices have recently faced downward pressure, with spot gold trading around $3,336 per ounce after a significant drop of 0.6% [1]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July surged by 3.3%, exceeding market expectations and indicating widespread increases in commodity and service costs, which could impact future gold prices [2]. Group 2 - The technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook for gold, with key resistance levels identified around $3,350 to $3,352, and potential support at $3,330 to $3,310 [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies recommend selling on rebounds near $3,350 and buying on dips around $3,310, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6][7]. - Upcoming economic indicators, including the core PCE data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, are expected to influence market expectations and gold's price trajectory [2].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant trends and strategies in the gold investment market for 2025, highlighting the importance of understanding market dynamics and employing systematic trading techniques [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Continued strengthening of safe-haven demand due to the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, tensions in the Middle East, and global central banks increasing gold reserves, leading to an average daily trading volume of over $200 billion in spot gold [3] - Technological advancements are revolutionizing gold trading, with zero slippage execution and integration of over 20 technical indicators in trading platforms, enhancing order processing speed by 40% compared to industry averages [4] - Scientific asset allocation is becoming mainstream, with research indicating that including gold in a portfolio can reduce volatility by 18.7%, offering flexible options for different risk appetites through a combination of long and short trading mechanisms [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Trend identification is crucial, with the principle that "the trend is your friend" guiding traders to only take long positions in uptrends and short positions in downtrends [6] - Support and resistance levels are key in technical analysis, where buying near support and selling near resistance is recommended, and price breakouts can indicate new support or resistance levels [7] - Moving averages can effectively track trends, with cross signals indicating potential price movements [8] - Candlestick patterns provide insights into market sentiment, with specific formations signaling potential reversals or risks [9] Group 3: Risk and Money Management - Position control principles suggest that no single trade should exceed 30% of total capital, and gold should comprise 5%-15% of an investment portfolio [11] - Stop-loss and take-profit strategies emphasize the importance of discipline over prediction, with specific guidelines for setting stop-loss points and dynamically adjusting them to protect profits [12] - Caution is advised regarding leverage in gold futures, as excessive leverage can lead to significant losses [13] Group 4: Practical Strategies - Low-cost strategies are highlighted, including optimized spreads and micro contracts to reduce transaction costs [14] - Educational resources are available to empower decision-making, including simulated trading accounts and structured learning courses [15] - Event-driven trading strategies can capitalize on market movements around key economic announcements, exemplified by a significant price surge following a change in interest rate expectations [16] Group 5: Psychological and Behavioral Guidelines - Emotional control is essential, with recommendations to avoid trading during emotional highs or lows and to maintain a disciplined trading frequency [18] - Keeping a trading journal to analyze decisions and outcomes can help refine strategies and improve performance [18] Conclusion - The article emphasizes that successful gold investment requires a blend of technical analysis, risk management, and psychological discipline, suggesting a framework of 70% technical analysis, 20% risk management, and 10% market intuition to navigate the uncertainties of the market in 2025 [19]

Group 1 - On April 30, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 781.57 CNY per gram, showing a premium of 1.27 CNY over the futures main price of 780.30 CNY per gram [1] - The national gold price overview on April 30 indicated that the market price for gold with a purity of 99.99% was 778.19 CNY per gram in Huangpu District, while the Shanghai gold spot market quoted it at 781.29 CNY per gram [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a closing price of 780.30 CNY per gram for the main gold futures contract on April 30, with a decline of 0.89% and a trading volume of 246,636 contracts [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that as of April 30, the gold futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 15,648 kilograms, with a slight decrease of 27 kilograms over the past month, representing a reduction of 0.17% [3] - The World Gold Council's report for Q1 2025 indicated that global gold demand reached 1,206 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%, despite gold prices surpassing 3,000 USD per ounce [3] Group 3 - According to Hualian Futures research, the recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs have eased inflationary pressures, leading to a significant pullback in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold showing a premium of about 3% over London gold [4] - The report suggests that while short-term adjustments in gold prices may occur due to reduced favorable factors and market sentiment, the underlying logic for gold's rise remains intact, and external investors have not exited the market [4]