新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 现货成交有限 宏观因素提振铅价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 1、国内供应大幅提升 2、消费不及预期 3、海外流动性收紧 据SMM讯，昨日SMM1#铅价较上一交易日上涨100元/吨。河南地区持货商报价对SMM1#铅均价贴水20-0元/吨出 厂，或对沪期铅2509合约贴水120-100元/吨；湖南地区冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅贴水20-0元/吨出厂，部分持货商报 价对SMM1#铅均价贴水50-30元/吨；广东地区炼厂报价升水下调，对SMM1#铅升水30元/吨，铅价走强后，下游仅 以刚需采购，下游接货积极性较差，现货市场成交一般。 库存方面：2025-08-25，SMM铅锭库存总量为6.8万吨，较上周同期变化-0.16万吨。截止8月25日，LME铅库存为 273050吨，较上一交易日变化-6550吨。 策略 中性 目前铅品种供需两淡格局难改，旺季需求目前并无明显体现，而精矿端即便在冶炼厂存在检修计划预期的情况下， 仍然显得较为紧俏，TC价格也持续走低，因此基本面目前并无明显利好铅价的因素，但宏观因素（如降息预期抬 升）则是利好整体有色板块，也使得铅价下跌空间有限，预计价 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,333 per ounce, following a significant drop of 0.6% to $3,335.25 per ounce on Thursday, with futures down 0.7% to $3,383.20 [1] - The recent surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, has dampened hopes for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market is evident, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 3,000 to 224,000, which supports the notion that the economy remains robust [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators Impacting Gold - The rise in inflation expectations and the decline in rate cut expectations have led to a 0.5% increase in the U.S. dollar index, reaching 98.25, marking the largest single-day gain in over two weeks [5] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 10-year yield up 5.3 basis points to 4.293% and the 2-year yield up 5.4 basis points to 3.741%, further diminishing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [5] - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may face tough choices between combating inflation and supporting the economy [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is anticipated to influence the geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict [8][10] - Ukrainian President Zelensky and European allies are actively working to prevent any agreements that could jeopardize Ukraine's security during the U.S.-Russia summit [9] Group 4: Investment Outlook - In the short term, gold prices may continue to face pressure due to technical signals turning slightly bearish and the cooling of aggressive rate cut expectations [11] - However, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical situations continue to provide support for gold in the medium to long term [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant trends and strategies in the gold investment market for 2025, highlighting the importance of understanding market dynamics and employing systematic trading techniques [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Continued strengthening of safe-haven demand due to the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, tensions in the Middle East, and global central banks increasing gold reserves, leading to an average daily trading volume of over $200 billion in spot gold [3] - Technological advancements are revolutionizing gold trading, with zero slippage execution and integration of over 20 technical indicators in trading platforms, enhancing order processing speed by 40% compared to industry averages [4] - Scientific asset allocation is becoming mainstream, with research indicating that including gold in a portfolio can reduce volatility by 18.7%, offering flexible options for different risk appetites through a combination of long and short trading mechanisms [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Trend identification is crucial, with the principle that "the trend is your friend" guiding traders to only take long positions in uptrends and short positions in downtrends [6] - Support and resistance levels are key in technical analysis, where buying near support and selling near resistance is recommended, and price breakouts can indicate new support or resistance levels [7] - Moving averages can effectively track trends, with cross signals indicating potential price movements [8] - Candlestick patterns provide insights into market sentiment, with specific formations signaling potential reversals or risks [9] Group 3: Risk and Money Management - Position control principles suggest that no single trade should exceed 30% of total capital, and gold should comprise 5%-15% of an investment portfolio [11] - Stop-loss and take-profit strategies emphasize the importance of discipline over prediction, with specific guidelines for setting stop-loss points and dynamically adjusting them to protect profits [12] - Caution is advised regarding leverage in gold futures, as excessive leverage can lead to significant losses [13] Group 4: Practical Strategies - Low-cost strategies are highlighted, including optimized spreads and micro contracts to reduce transaction costs [14] - Educational resources are available to empower decision-making, including simulated trading accounts and structured learning courses [15] - Event-driven trading strategies can capitalize on market movements around key economic announcements, exemplified by a significant price surge following a change in interest rate expectations [16] Group 5: Psychological and Behavioral Guidelines - Emotional control is essential, with recommendations to avoid trading during emotional highs or lows and to maintain a disciplined trading frequency [18] - Keeping a trading journal to analyze decisions and outcomes can help refine strategies and improve performance [18] Conclusion - The article emphasizes that successful gold investment requires a blend of technical analysis, risk management, and psychological discipline, suggesting a framework of 70% technical analysis, 20% risk management, and 10% market intuition to navigate the uncertainties of the market in 2025 [19]

Group 1 - On April 30, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 781.57 CNY per gram, showing a premium of 1.27 CNY over the futures main price of 780.30 CNY per gram [1] - The national gold price overview on April 30 indicated that the market price for gold with a purity of 99.99% was 778.19 CNY per gram in Huangpu District, while the Shanghai gold spot market quoted it at 781.29 CNY per gram [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a closing price of 780.30 CNY per gram for the main gold futures contract on April 30, with a decline of 0.89% and a trading volume of 246,636 contracts [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that as of April 30, the gold futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 15,648 kilograms, with a slight decrease of 27 kilograms over the past month, representing a reduction of 0.17% [3] - The World Gold Council's report for Q1 2025 indicated that global gold demand reached 1,206 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%, despite gold prices surpassing 3,000 USD per ounce [3] Group 3 - According to Hualian Futures research, the recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding tariffs have eased inflationary pressures, leading to a significant pullback in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold showing a premium of about 3% over London gold [4] - The report suggests that while short-term adjustments in gold prices may occur due to reduced favorable factors and market sentiment, the underlying logic for gold's rise remains intact, and external investors have not exited the market [4]