1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The probability of a US economic recession has significantly increased, as indicated by the continuous decline in new non - farm employment below 100,000 for four consecutive months since the second half of 2025 [7]. - The divergence in energy paths between China and the US presents a "misaligned opportunity." The US may become a stable consumer and important producer of traditional energy, while China is expected to lead in green energy technology and industry [10]. - In the context of expected global monetary policy easing, Chinese assets, especially the technology and consumer sectors in Hong Kong and A - shares, are attracting global investors. From May to July 2025, Chinese - related funds in emerging markets attracted over $12 billion in capital [13]. - Regarding copper, it remains a long - term asset allocation choice, but the probability of short - term sharp fluctuations will decrease. There is an expected arbitrage space between LME, CMX, and SHFE. It is recommended that companies with hedging needs shift positions from LME to CMX or increase domestic hedging positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs US Economic Outlook - The continuous decline in new non - farm employment below 100,000 for four consecutive months since the second half of 2025 is a strong signal of a potential US economic recession. Although other indicators such as low unemployment and low credit spreads do not show obvious signs of recession, historical data suggests that these indicators cannot predict economic recessions [7]. - After the pandemic, the US economy has faced high inflation and high interest rates, and the balance sheets of low - income groups and small and medium - sized enterprises are likely to be problematic [10]. Sino - US Energy Path Divergence - The US is sacrificing the development speed of clean energy, which will weaken its advantage in new energy costs. In contrast, China is building a long - term sustainable and low - carbon energy system. The global industrial chain will see a new division of labor: the US as a traditional energy consumer and producer, and China as a leader in green energy technology and industry [10]. Chinese Asset Allocation - In the context of expected global monetary policy easing, capital is flowing to markets with both valuation advantages and growth potential. Chinese assets, especially the technology and consumer sectors in Hong Kong and A - shares, are attracting global investors. From May to July 2025, global emerging market equity funds had 10 consecutive weeks of net inflows, with Chinese - related funds attracting over $12 billion. Hong Kong stocks have seen foreign capital inflows [13]. Domestic Anti - Involution - The current anti - involution in China is more complex, involving new industries such as photovoltaics, batteries, and new energy vehicles. It is difficult to change short - term demand. The government is likely to use measures like stockpiling to support the market. The goal is to stabilize and increase domestic PPI and corporate profits, thereby ensuring stable national tax revenue [14]. Copper Market Analysis Supply and Demand Balance - Globally, the supply of copper elements will increasingly rely on recycled copper. In 2025, the global refined copper surplus is expected to be 814,300 tons, while the supply of copper elements is expected to be short by 743,500 tons. Overseas regions (excluding the US) are in a tight balance or slight shortage [47]. - In China, the 2025 refined copper surplus is expected to be 427,200 tons, and the copper element supply is expected to be short by 266,000 tons. The annual production is expected to increase by about 1.8162 million tons, with a total supply of 16.5018 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.55% [49]. - In the US, the 2025 refined copper surplus is expected to be 324,000 tons, and the copper element supply is expected to be short by 112,800 tons. The annual production is expected to decrease by about 42,000 tons, with a total supply of 1.987 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.46% [50]. Recycling Market - The global recycling market has significant potential, with an expected potential of 4.255 million tons in 2025. The overseas recycling market has a potential of 3.852 million tons, while the US recycling market is short by 437,000 tons. China's recycling market has a potential of 611,900 tons [54][57][63]. Price and Arbitrage - Copper prices are expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the probability of short - term sharp fluctuations will decrease. There is an expected arbitrage space between LME, CMX, and SHFE. The L - C spread will remain low and is unlikely to return to the pre - tariff normal level. It is recommended that companies with hedging needs shift positions from LME to CMX or increase domestic hedging positions [3].