1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly bearish as there is no obvious driving force [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that due to factors such as the decline in crude oil prices, the return of domestic PTA device supply, and the seasonal weakening of aromatics, the PTA market shows a weak trend. Although the downstream load of polyester remains at a high level, there is still no obvious driving force in the market, and it is expected to be mainly bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. Crude oil prices are falling, domestic PTA device supply is gradually returning, PTA basis is weakening, and PX device operating rate is rising while the spread between PX and naphtha is shrinking [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 91%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the load of the weaving end has increased slightly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. PTA port inventory has decreased by 40,000 tons [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. PTA basis has weakened rapidly, profits have continued to shrink, and market liquidity is very loose [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $220, and PTA processing fees remain at around 150 yuan and have shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. PTA prices are at a neutral to low level, and aromatics supply has increased due to the return of reforming devices and the postponement of domestic PX mainstream device overhauls [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3][8]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Expected to be mainly bearish with no obvious driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical crises still exist, and prices have dropped significantly. Trump called for further price cuts. Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased sharply in the week of September 14, but the four - week average export volume increased slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 [5][8]. - **Gasoline**: The peak season for gasoline is ending, and the premium of high - octane components is weakening. Refinery operating rates have risen to 94.9%, gasoline production has decreased to 9.6 million barrels per day, and total gasoline inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels compared to last week. The driving season will end at the end of September [23]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Supply - Side Changes**: Overhauled devices are returning, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply has increased. Some refineries have device maintenance and new device production plans, which will affect the supply of pure benzene, toluene, and xylene [32][53]. - **Profit Situation**: Selective disproportionation profit has declined, and pure benzene prices are suppressing disproportionation profit. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk, and PX short - process profit is still supported [49][54]. - **Market Conditions**: The US - Asia MX spread has widened, but there is no news of exports from South Korea to the US. The spot PX price is gradually falling, and the spread between PX and naphtha has decreased [60]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is returning, and prices are weak. East China ethylene glycol port inventory is 465,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline. Overseas imports are expected to decrease, but domestic device production is pressuring prices [75][83]. - **Polyester**: It maintains a high load, but production is increasing while the downstream is entering the off - season. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under pressure [89][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The probability of a US economic recession has significantly increased, as indicated by the continuous decline in new non - farm employment below 100,000 for four consecutive months since the second half of 2025 [7]. - The divergence in energy paths between China and the US presents a "misaligned opportunity." The US may become a stable consumer and important producer of traditional energy, while China is expected to lead in green energy technology and industry [10]. - In the context of expected global monetary policy easing, Chinese assets, especially the technology and consumer sectors in Hong Kong and A - shares, are attracting global investors. From May to July 2025, Chinese - related funds in emerging markets attracted over $12 billion in capital [13]. - Regarding copper, it remains a long - term asset allocation choice, but the probability of short - term sharp fluctuations will decrease. There is an expected arbitrage space between LME, CMX, and SHFE. It is recommended that companies with hedging needs shift positions from LME to CMX or increase domestic hedging positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs US Economic Outlook - The continuous decline in new non - farm employment below 100,000 for four consecutive months since the second half of 2025 is a strong signal of a potential US economic recession. Although other indicators such as low unemployment and low credit spreads do not show obvious signs of recession, historical data suggests that these indicators cannot predict economic recessions [7]. - After the pandemic, the US economy has faced high inflation and high interest rates, and the balance sheets of low - income groups and small and medium - sized enterprises are likely to be problematic [10]. Sino - US Energy Path Divergence - The US is sacrificing the development speed of clean energy, which will weaken its advantage in new energy costs. In contrast, China is building a long - term sustainable and low - carbon energy system. The global industrial chain will see a new division of labor: the US as a traditional energy consumer and producer, and China as a leader in green energy technology and industry [10]. Chinese Asset Allocation - In the context of expected global monetary policy easing, capital is flowing to markets with both valuation advantages and growth potential. Chinese assets, especially the technology and consumer sectors in Hong Kong and A - shares, are attracting global investors. From May to July 2025, global emerging market equity funds had 10 consecutive weeks of net inflows, with Chinese - related funds attracting over $12 billion. Hong Kong stocks have seen foreign capital inflows [13]. Domestic Anti - Involution - The current anti - involution in China is more complex, involving new industries such as photovoltaics, batteries, and new energy vehicles. It is difficult to change short - term demand. The government is likely to use measures like stockpiling to support the market. The goal is to stabilize and increase domestic PPI and corporate profits, thereby ensuring stable national tax revenue [14]. Copper Market Analysis Supply and Demand Balance - Globally, the supply of copper elements will increasingly rely on recycled copper. In 2025, the global refined copper surplus is expected to be 814,300 tons, while the supply of copper elements is expected to be short by 743,500 tons. Overseas regions (excluding the US) are in a tight balance or slight shortage [47]. - In China, the 2025 refined copper surplus is expected to be 427,200 tons, and the copper element supply is expected to be short by 266,000 tons. The annual production is expected to increase by about 1.8162 million tons, with a total supply of 16.5018 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.55% [49]. - In the US, the 2025 refined copper surplus is expected to be 324,000 tons, and the copper element supply is expected to be short by 112,800 tons. The annual production is expected to decrease by about 42,000 tons, with a total supply of 1.987 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.46% [50]. Recycling Market - The global recycling market has significant potential, with an expected potential of 4.255 million tons in 2025. The overseas recycling market has a potential of 3.852 million tons, while the US recycling market is short by 437,000 tons. China's recycling market has a potential of 611,900 tons [54][57][63]. Price and Arbitrage - Copper prices are expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the probability of short - term sharp fluctuations will decrease. There is an expected arbitrage space between LME, CMX, and SHFE. The L - C spread will remain low and is unlikely to return to the pre - tariff normal level. It is recommended that companies with hedging needs shift positions from LME to CMX or increase domestic hedging positions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by various factors including monetary policy expectations and geopolitical tensions [2][3][8]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3]. - The current spot price of silver is reported at $40.44 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [3]. - This upward trend in silver prices aligns with the performance of other precious metals, such as gold, which also reached new highs [5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the market's increasing bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting [8]. - Lower borrowing costs typically favor non-yielding precious metal assets, enhancing their appeal [8]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have also boosted investor demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies like solar panels [9]. - Significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been observed, marking the longest continuous inflow period since 2020 [9]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Recent policy proposals from the U.S. Department of the Interior to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list could further support silver prices [12]. - This proposal aims to reduce U.S. dependence on imports and expand domestic production [13]. - The potential for high import tariffs, possibly up to 50%, on silver due to its inclusion in the critical minerals list has been highlighted as a significant market catalyst [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver, projecting prices to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, and recommends investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of 20-year and 50-year government bonds has attracted market attention due to their significant yield declines compared to other maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor focus towards these longer-duration bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The yields of 20-year and 50-year government bonds have decreased by approximately 5 basis points (BP) in the past week, with 20-year bonds down 5.5 BP and 50-year bonds down 4.65 BP, outperforming the more stable 10-year and 30-year bonds [1]. - The 50-year special government bond "25超长特别国债03" was issued at a competitive rate of 2.10%, significantly higher than the prevailing market yield, creating an arbitrage opportunity that has drawn substantial buying interest [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may still favor 20-year and 50-year bonds, as they offer higher coupon yields and capital gains potential, especially in a low-yield environment [2][4]. - The yield spread between 20-year and 10-year bonds has narrowed, indicating a potential for further compression, which could enhance the attractiveness of these longer-duration bonds [4][7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Bond funds have shown a trend of increasing their holdings in ultra-long government bonds, with net purchases of 108 billion yuan in 15-20 year bonds and 13 billion yuan in bonds with maturities over 30 years [7]. - The current yield spread between 20-year and 30-year bonds is at a five-year high, suggesting that there is still room for compression, making these bonds appealing during periods of yield stability [7].