铜周报 20251221 消费短期承压， 供给担忧和宏观预期共同提振盘面 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 | 本周沪铜主力2602合约周五下午收于93180元/吨，周环比跌1.05%。本周沪铜整体呈震荡走势： | | | --- | --- | | 行情回顾 美国通胀超预期放缓、就业继续降温，中国11月固投与地产承压，欧元区12月制造业PM加速萎 | | | 缩；美降息预期提振盘面但现实层面仍有扰动。消费弱、持货商用货，铜现货升贴水明显走低。 | | | 宏观，美国通胀超预期放缓、就业继续降温；日本央行强调未来审慎行事。供给，铜精矿港口库 | 存环比增值同比偏低。BM谈判仍难分难解。国内12月电解铜产量预计环比增5.96%、同比增 | | 运行逻辑 | 6.69%, 前期检修影响量回归。需求，精铜杆开工受限, 下周预计延续跌势。上周10个重点城市 | | 新房、二手房成交面积同比续降。12月家用空调排产量较去年同期生产实绩降22.3%。12月1-14日 | | | 全国乘用车新能源市场零售辆同比减4% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental support for copper is limited, and attention should be paid to the macro - driving factors next week [1] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The center of the Shanghai copper futures market has moved up, the sentiment of spot trading has weakened, and the premium is under pressure [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation this week is limited [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week increased by $0.82 per ton week - on - week to - $42.63 per ton, still negative [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports this week decreased by 169,700 tons week - on - week to 560,900 tons [17] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to continue to rise [20] - There is an import inversion of copper [21] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week this week, while the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [24] - The LME copper inventory continued to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and with the upward movement of the Shanghai copper center, new orders and提货量 decreased. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [27] - From July 1st to 20th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 23% year - on - year and decreased by 12% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in July decreased month - on - month, and the overall production plan for August has limited month - on - month change [33] - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the production plan for household air conditioners in August is 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [35] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December [40] - Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [42]