Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental support for copper is limited, and attention should be paid to the macro - driving factors next week [1] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The center of the Shanghai copper futures market has moved up, the sentiment of spot trading has weakened, and the premium is under pressure [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation this week is limited [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week increased by $0.82 per ton week - on - week to - $42.63 per ton, still negative [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports this week decreased by 169,700 tons week - on - week to 560,900 tons [17] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to continue to rise [20] - There is an import inversion of copper [21] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week this week, while the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [24] - The LME copper inventory continued to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and with the upward movement of the Shanghai copper center, new orders and提货量 decreased. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [27] - From July 1st to 20th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 23% year - on - year and decreased by 12% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in July decreased month - on - month, and the overall production plan for August has limited month - on - month change [33] - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the production plan for household air conditioners in August is 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [35] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December [40] - Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports may lead to short - term adjustment risks for copper prices, and the US copper inventory may increase while non - US regions gradually become more relaxed. The end of the US restocking process is expected, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [10]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year because the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite [12]. - The tight supply at the mine end continues. The processing fees for copper concentrates remain at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. Although the production of refined copper has increased slightly, demand is still weak, and inventory has accumulated [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1. The initial jobless claims in the US have declined for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, but the continuing claims are still at the highest level since the end of 2021 [5]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year, as the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite. The non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [5]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. The estimated output of electrolytic copper has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus Bullish Factors - Some dovish Fed officials have spoken out, boosting market risk appetite. The domestic social copper inventory accumulation is limited, and the copper concentrate processing fees remain at a low level [8]. Bearish Factors - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports will be implemented on August 1. The short - term copper price has adjustment risks, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [9][10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a 17.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.61% year - on - year increase. The supplies from Chile and Peru have both declined, and the supply tension is difficult to ease [13]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices [17]. - In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a 2.93% month - on - month increase and a 16.33% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the output in the second quarter will reach 3.3913 million tons, a 16.13% increase from the second quarter of 2024 [19]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a 9.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.53% year - on - year decrease. The supplies from Thailand, Japan, and the US have all declined [22]. - **Demand - side Data** - As of July 10, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1015 yuan per ton, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [26]. - In June, the domestic refined copper rod output was 811,300 tons, a 3.51% month - on - month decrease and a 7.47% year - on - year increase. The output of recycled copper rods was 215,500 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase [30]. - In June, the domestic copper plate and strip output was 202,800 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month decrease, lower than the same period last year [34]. - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a 7.4% month - on - month increase and a 22.2% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Inventory and Price Difference Data** - LME copper inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the risk of a short squeeze has decreased. The copper inventory in SHFE and COMEX has increased, and the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has also increased [42]. - On July 4, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper turned into a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot also changed from a large premium to a discount [46]. 3.4后市研判 - With the upcoming implementation of tariffs, the short - term adjustment risk continues. Attention should be paid to the support at the 77,000 integer level [49].