长白山 20251126 摘要 长白山公司前三季度累计接待游客 306 万人次，同比增长 10.4%，其 中第三季度接待游客 202 万人次，同比增长 20.24%，主要受益于暑期 "云顶天宫"及"盗墓笔记"等主题 IP 的带动，客流显著增长。 沈白高铁 9 月 28 日开通，对十一期间客流有一定拉动作用，落地长白 山站旅客数量几乎翻倍，10 月份整体客流同比增长 18.25%，高于前九 个月平均水平，预计后续将逐步显现对景区客流的支撑作用。 11 月份以来，受降雪和大风天气影响，景区关闭天数增加，但总体客流 仍保持持平，显示冰雪旅游季吸引力增强及沈白高铁的交通支撑作用， 预计今年雪季将迎来峰值水平。 公司计划在淡季开展营销活动，推动核心时段向淡季延伸，如和平滑雪 场提前开盘，日均客流同比增长显著，旨在提高整体品牌知名度和市场 认可度。 皇冠假日酒店今年三季度入住率和平均房价均上涨，可售房收入增长 10.45%，11 月中旬出现连续满房情况，表明酒店业务表现理想，有望 在冬季旅游旺季继续保持良好趋势。 Q&A 请介绍一下长白山公司 2025 年前三季度的经营情况。 2025 年前三季度，长白山公司的收入为 6 ...

Summary of Changbai Mountain Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the Changbai Mountain tourism industry, particularly its winter sports and scenic area operations. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Visitor Trends and Impact** - From November 2024 to February 2025, nearly 3 million mainland Chinese tourists are expected to visit Japan, with an average spending of approximately 13,000 RMB per person. Some of these tourists may shift to domestic ice and snow tourism, benefiting Changbai Mountain's visitor numbers [2][3]. 2. **Operational Enhancements for 2025** - Changbai Mountain and the Pinghu Ski Resort opened early on November 2, 2025, compared to mid to late December in previous years. The expansion of the western scenic area is expected to lead to a double-digit growth in visitor numbers, potentially reaching 20% [2][4]. 3. **Stock Performance and Market Sentiment** - The stock price of Changbai Mountain has not yet surpassed the pre-2024 winter peak, but there is increasing market attention and potential for further price catalysts [2][4]. 4. **Future Development Plans for 2026** - The North Slope Corridor project is set to open before the summer of 2026, which is expected to increase the North Slope's visitor capacity by 10%. Additionally, vehicle procurement will continue to enhance capacity during peak seasons [5][6]. 5. **Transportation Improvements** - The opening of the high-speed rail from Shenyang to Changbai Mountain will reduce travel time to the western scenic area to just 20 minutes, significantly increasing visitor flow. The southern slope's capacity is also expected to improve [6]. 6. **Profit Forecasts** - For 2025, profits are projected to be between 150 million to 160 million RMB, with expectations of 190 million RMB in 2026. The return of Japanese tourists could further enhance profitability [2][7]. Additional Important Insights - The early opening of the ski season and the expected increase in visitor capacity are critical factors that could lead to a successful winter season for Changbai Mountain [4][6]. - The potential shift of tourists from Japan to domestic destinations due to geopolitical tensions is a significant driver for Changbai Mountain's growth [3].

Summary of Changbai Mountain Scenic Area Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and future outlook of the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area, particularly in relation to tourism and hospitality sectors. Key Points Visitor Growth and Trends - From October 9 to 25, visitor numbers increased by approximately 16-17% year-on-year, with a peak of over 12,000 visitors in a single day, attributed to the opening of the Shenbai High-Speed Railway and marketing activities [2][4] - The total expected visitor count for the year is around 3.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10%-20% [2][4] - Liaoning Province has become a major source of visitors, with a share increase of about 0.3 percentage points and a growth of over 10% year-on-year, facilitated by improved travel times due to the Shenbai High-Speed Railway [2][5] Capacity and Infrastructure - The North Scenic Area has a winter capacity of approximately 15,000 visitors, while the West Scenic Area can accommodate 5,000, representing a total increase of about 20% compared to last year [2][6] - Future capacity is projected to increase from 41,000 to 51,000 visitors per day, an increase of about 20%, due to infrastructure improvements and better traffic management [10] New Projects and Revenue Streams - New projects include the En Dori Commercial Street and the Deer Horn Village Fairy Tale World, aimed at enhancing visitor experience and increasing stay duration [2][7] - The company has introduced new activities such as snowmobile and ATV experiences, as well as a 3 km hiking trail, which are expected to significantly contribute to overall performance [2][7] - The second phase of the Hot Spring Tribe is expected to open in the second half of next year, with a positioning slightly below the first phase Crowne Plaza Hotel, potentially matching its scale [9] Operational Strategies - The company plans to streamline costs and focus on converting winter tourism-related consumption to improve profitability in the fourth quarter [3][13][14] - The hospitality model includes 140 guest rooms operated through a leasing and renovation strategy, with a 51% stake in a joint venture for restaurant management [2][8] Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the new projects and improved visitor experiences will lead to significant revenue growth during the winter season [2][7] - The Snow Mountain Water Town project is in the planning stage with a total investment of approximately 500 million, focusing on room revenue from summer and winter tourism [11] Shareholder Actions - Jilin Forest Industry's share reduction was due to funding needs, with no clear indication of future reductions [12] Additional Insights - The company is actively managing its operational costs to address high expenses associated with the winter season, aiming for a balanced approach to revenue generation and cost management [3][13]

Summary of Changbai Mountain Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the tourism industry, specifically the Changbai Mountain scenic area, which is enhancing its infrastructure and visitor experience to boost tourism and revenue [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Infrastructure Improvements**: Changbai Mountain has invested in infrastructure, including repairing platforms and adding walkways, which has increased daily visitor capacity by approximately 20% compared to last year [2][3]. 2. **Visitor Statistics**: From July to September, the scenic area received 2.02 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 20.24%. As of the end of October, total visitors reached 3.4073 million, with a target of 4 million for the year, which is under pressure due to weather conditions [2][5]. 3. **Winter Season Initiatives**: The 2025 winter season will feature new attractions, including a "Tomb Raider" themed sculpture and cultural displays, aimed at enhancing visitor experience and increasing spending [2][5]. 4. **Transportation Enhancements**: The opening of the Shenbai High-Speed Railway on September 28, 2025, has led to a 47% increase in passenger numbers during the National Day holiday, with expectations of reaching a capacity of over 10 million annual passengers, significantly boosting visitor numbers from Beijing and North China [2][8]. 5. **Hotel Performance**: The Crowne Plaza hotel reported a year-on-year increase in occupancy rates and a 10.45% rise in revenue from available rooms. The hotel is expected to perform well throughout the year [2][13]. 6. **New Projects and Facilities**: The company is advancing several projects, including the second phase of the hot spring project and the construction of a mountain sports park, which are expected to enhance competitiveness and attract more visitors [4][18]. 7. **Marketing Strategies**: The company has implemented various marketing strategies, including special events related to the "Tomb Raider" theme, to attract and retain visitors [3][5]. 8. **Revenue Contributions from New Facilities**: The opening of the Enduri commercial street and the new operation point in Deer Horn Village is expected to increase visitor dwell time and spending, contributing positively to the company's revenue [9][10]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Seasonal Challenges**: The company faces challenges in meeting its annual visitor target due to adverse weather conditions during the winter season, but the early start of the snow season and extended New Year holidays may provide a boost [5][12]. 2. **Future Development Plans**: The company plans to develop new tourism products and facilities over the next five years, including a snow-themed project and a top-tier mountain sports park, to adapt to market demands and enhance growth opportunities [18][20]. 3. **Economic Impact of High-Speed Rail**: The high-speed rail has improved access to Northeast China's ice and snow tourism routes, facilitating better connectivity between major tourist destinations [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Changbai Mountain scenic area, highlighting its strategic initiatives, visitor statistics, and future growth plans.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth of 17.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a net profit growth of 19.4%. The peak season in Q3 helped to compensate for the weaker performance in the first half of the year [1][8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ice and snow tourism market, supported by favorable policies and improved transportation infrastructure, which is expected to enhance visitor flow during the winter season [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue reached 401 million yuan, up 17.78% year-on-year, while net profit was 151 million yuan, an increase of 19.43%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 636 million yuan, a growth of 6.99%, and net profit was 149 million yuan, up 1.05% [1][8] - The company recorded a gross margin of 57.5% in Q3, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to consumer spending fluctuations and capacity expansion [2][12] - Visitor numbers for the first three quarters reached 3.06 million, a 10.4% increase, with Q3 alone seeing 2.02 million visitors, a 20% rise [12] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 160 million, 190 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, reflecting a more cautious outlook. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 87, 72, and 61 for the respective years [4][14] - The government has set ambitious targets for the ice and snow economy, aiming for a total scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, which is expected to stimulate demand in the tourism sector [3][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue growth of 17.8% year-on-year in Q3, with a net profit growth of 19.4%. The peak season in Q3 helped to compensate for the weaker performance in the first half of the year [1][8]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ice and snow tourism market, supported by favorable policies and improved transportation infrastructure, which is expected to enhance visitor flow during the winter season [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 401 million yuan, an increase of 17.78%, and a net profit of 151 million yuan, up 19.43%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 636 million yuan, a growth of 6.99%, while net profit was 149 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.05% [1][8]. - The total visitor count for the first three quarters reached 3.06 million, representing a 10.4% increase, with Q3 alone seeing 2.02 million visitors, a 20% increase [12][1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 was 57.5%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to the impact of per capita spending and capacity expansion [2][12]. - The company maintained tight control over expenses, with management, sales, and financial expense ratios at 4.4%, 2.2%, and 0.3%, respectively [2][12]. Future Outlook - The company aims to create a dual peak season strategy, leveraging policy support and transportation improvements to stimulate demand in the ice and snow tourism sector. The government has set ambitious targets for the ice and snow economy, projecting a total scale of 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][4]. - The opening of the Shenyang-White Mountain high-speed railway is expected to significantly reduce travel time and increase visitor numbers, with projections of over 10 million passengers annually [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 160 million, 190 million, and 220 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [4][5]. - The latest price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 87, 72, and 61 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5].

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 17.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 151 million yuan, up 19.43% year-over-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 636 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 6.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, up 1.05% year-over-year [1] - The company maintained good cost control, with a gross margin of 57.50% in Q3 2025, a slight decrease of 0.40 percentage points year-over-year [1] Cost Management - In Q3 2025, the company's selling and administrative expense ratios were 2.19% and 4.43%, respectively, showing year-over-year decreases of 0.19 and 0.13 percentage points [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 43.27%, down 2.45 percentage points year-over-year, while the selling and administrative expense ratios were 2.73% and 7.74%, with year-over-year changes of -0.06 and +0.59 percentage points [1] Customer Traffic Growth - The company experienced strong customer traffic growth during the summer, with July, August, and September visitor numbers reaching 810,200, 825,200, and 389,400, respectively, representing year-over-year increases of 37.8%, 14.9%, and 2% [2] - The total customer traffic for Q3 2025 was 2,024,800, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 19.96% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the opening of the Shenbai High-speed Railway in September 2025, which will significantly shorten travel times for passengers from North China [2] - The second phase of the hot spring project is accelerating construction, with completion and operation expected in 2025 [2] - The company is projected to see net profits attributable to shareholders of 154 million, 186 million, and 220 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 89x, 73x, and 62x [2]

Summary of Changbai Mountain Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of Changbai Mountain, a tourist destination in China, focusing on its financial results and operational strategies for 2025. Key Points Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changbai Mountain reported a profit decrease of approximately 6 million yuan, attributed to rising wages, increased operational costs (such as expanded snow production and higher electricity costs due to new electric vehicles), and increased expenses related to travel agency revenue growth [2][4] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 129 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%, while costs and expenses rose by 9% [3][4] - Despite a 2.6% increase in visitor numbers, revenue growth was below 1%, primarily due to increased closure days of the Tianchi scenic spot and the timing of the Spring Festival [5] Visitor Trends and Projections - The company plans to host approximately 4 million visitors in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17%-20%, with significant increases expected during the summer and winter seasons [8] - The opening of the Shenyang-Baicheng high-speed railway is anticipated to significantly boost visitor numbers in Q4 2025, changing the visitor demographic and promoting short-distance travel [8][10] Weather Impact - Adverse weather conditions in April 2025, including heavy snowfall, led to frequent closures of the Tianchi scenic spot, resulting in a 20% year-on-year decline in visitor numbers for that month [7][6] - The company expects the May Day holiday to be fully booked, but overall visitor numbers will depend on weather conditions [7] Infrastructure Developments - Significant infrastructure improvements are underway, including the expansion of the 331 National Road and the opening of new highways, which will enhance accessibility to the Changbai Mountain area [11][12] - The company is also investing in new facilities, such as the second phase of the hot spring project, expected to open before the summer or winter season of 2026 [18] Marketing and International Tourism - The inbound tourism market is primarily driven by South Korean visitors, with plans to promote Changbai Mountain in South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia [13][14] - The company aims to develop hiking routes and outdoor activities to cater to the preferences of South Korean tourists [15] Domestic Tourism Shifts - There has been a notable shift in domestic tourist demographics, with a decrease in visitors from Northeast China and an increase from North, East, and South China, particularly from Guangdong province [17] Future Investments and Projects - The company is focusing on core business areas such as transportation and hotel services, with ongoing projects under review by the stock exchange [18] - The transportation segment is expected to see a rebound in average spending per customer, while hotel occupancy rates and average room prices are projected to improve during the summer season [19][20] Ice and Snow Projects - Current revenue from ice and snow projects is limited, with plans to enhance offerings and potentially develop a comprehensive ice and snow tourism experience similar to "Snow Town" [21] - The company is exploring opportunities to manage additional scenic spots and hotels to increase visitor flow and standardize service quality [22] Goals and Performance Metrics - The target for visitor numbers in 2025 is set at 4 million, with internal goals exceeding those set by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, visitor trends, infrastructure developments, and future growth plans for Changbai Mountain.