Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its strategic positioning and growth potential [5][8]. Core Insights - The company, Jiayou International, is positioned as a leader in cross-border multimodal transport, leveraging its strategic assets and expanding logistics network to drive revenue growth [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of 9.17 billion RMB in 2025 and net profits of 1.27 billion RMB, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [6][8]. - The report highlights the company's focus on enhancing operational efficiency and expanding its logistics capabilities across Asia and Africa, which are anticipated to contribute to sustained performance improvements [10][57]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - As of October 17, 2025, the company's closing price is 13.39 RMB, with a total market capitalization of 18,317.64 million RMB and a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.17% [3]. - The earnings forecast for 2023 to 2027 shows a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with a projected net profit of 1.64 billion RMB by 2027 [6][8]. Business Overview - Jiayou International, established in 2005, focuses on cross-border multimodal transport and supply chain trade, with significant investments in infrastructure and logistics networks in Mongolia, Central Asia, and Africa [7][15]. - The company has successfully replicated its operational model from Mongolia to Central Asia and Africa, enhancing its logistics capabilities and market reach [10][57]. Revenue Streams - The primary revenue sources include supply chain trade services, which accounted for 65.72% of total revenue in 2024, and cross-border multimodal logistics, contributing 27.96% [25]. - The company is also expanding its land port projects, which are expected to generate additional revenue from operations in Africa [25][27]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include the expansion of logistics networks in Central Asia, increased production from core mining areas, and deepening logistics networks in Africa [57][60]. - The company has established long-term contracts with major mining companies, ensuring stable revenue streams and enhancing operational sustainability [68].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, down 26.1% [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 300 million yuan, down 33.9% [2][4]. - The decline in revenue and profit was primarily due to weakened demand for Mongolian coal, with the average price of coking coal dropping approximately 40% in Q2 2025 [2][4]. - The company is seeing steady growth in its African logistics projects, particularly with the opening of the Kasai highway and the expected profit increase from new projects in Zambia [2][4]. - Since July, the rebound in coking coal prices driven by "anti-involution" in the coal market is expected to lead to a recovery in trade price differentials in Q3 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, down 26.1% [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 33.9% [2][4]. - The company announced an interim dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share (including tax), with a payout ratio of 48.8% [4]. Business Operations - The Mongolian coal business faced challenges, with both volume and price declining due to domestic demand issues, leading to a significant drop in revenue from this segment [2][4]. - The company has been expanding its overseas logistics network, establishing international transport fleets and specialized teams in Mongolia, Africa, and Central Asia, which has resulted in a rapid increase in cross-border logistics service revenue [2][4]. - The Kasai highway's traffic volume is steadily increasing, contributing to sustained profitability, with new projects in Zambia expected to enhance earnings in the second half of the year [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the Mongolian coal supply chain trade business will recover from its performance bottom, with a potential rebound in earnings in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The logistics network in Africa is taking shape, with ongoing projects expected to drive high growth, which the market may currently underestimate [2][4]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent company are 1.30 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.79 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9, 11.0, and 9.4 [2][4].