证券研究报告 交通运输 | 物流 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 22 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | | 月 | 17 日 | | | | 10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 13.39 | | | | | | | 一 内 低 | 高 | | | 最 | 23.14/9.66 | | 最 | 年 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 4.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, down 26.1% [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 300 million yuan, down 33.9% [2][4]. - The decline in revenue and profit was primarily due to weakened demand for Mongolian coal, with the average price of coking coal dropping approximately 40% in Q2 2025 [2][4]. - The company is seeing steady growth in its African logistics projects, particularly with the opening of the Kasai highway and the expected profit increase from new projects in Zambia [2][4]. - Since July, the rebound in coking coal prices driven by "anti-involution" in the coal market is expected to lead to a recovery in trade price differentials in Q3 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, down 26.1% [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 1.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 33.9% [2][4]. - The company announced an interim dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share (including tax), with a payout ratio of 48.8% [4]. Business Operations - The Mongolian coal business faced challenges, with both volume and price declining due to domestic demand issues, leading to a significant drop in revenue from this segment [2][4]. - The company has been expanding its overseas logistics network, establishing international transport fleets and specialized teams in Mongolia, Africa, and Central Asia, which has resulted in a rapid increase in cross-border logistics service revenue [2][4]. - The Kasai highway's traffic volume is steadily increasing, contributing to sustained profitability, with new projects in Zambia expected to enhance earnings in the second half of the year [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the Mongolian coal supply chain trade business will recover from its performance bottom, with a potential rebound in earnings in the second half of the year [2][4]. - The logistics network in Africa is taking shape, with ongoing projects expected to drive high growth, which the market may currently underestimate [2][4]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent company are 1.30 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.79 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9, 11.0, and 9.4 [2][4].