2026/2/9 最新观点 集运欧线数据日报 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 集运欧线：上周五EC上涨2.85%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1403美元/TEU，环比下跌15美元/TEU，基本对应于 02.09-02.15期间的欧线订舱价，反映2月第二周运价的继续下行。整体来看，2月现货运价延续下行为主，春 节当周大柜均价在2050美元左右，测算下来当前市场高点和现货基本持平，贴水幅度收窄，2月现货层面可博 弈的驱动相对有限。目前统计到春节停航主要集中在第9周和第10周，3月第一周运价或较为关键，一方面是 MSC率先提涨后，其他船司的跟涨情况或很大程度上传递船司节后的挺价意愿及3月运价会否跌穿大柜2000美 元，另一方面则是光伏等产品的抢出口会否带来节后货量没那么平淡及对船司挺价信心的支撑，重点关注后续 船司涨价函的公布情况。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 ...

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/3 最新观点 集运欧线：EC下跌3.06%。节前现货运价仍将延续下行为主，2月第三周大柜均价降至2080美元左右，测算下来 目前市场仍有200-300点左右的贴水，深贴水和强预期下现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多还是集中于预 期层面的博弈。近期商品市场降温，预计也会对市场情绪形成一定压制。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产 品的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于 节后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实 层面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the holiday, with limited room for actual trading and more potential for trading based on expectations [1]. - The pre - April 1 export rush of products like photovoltaics may lead to an increase in the listed price of shipping companies, a stable or slightly rising freight rate, and bring real - world drivers to the market. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping companies' price increase letters [1]. Group 2: EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2602 has a latest成交价 of 1716.7 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.02%, with a trading volume of 453 and a unilateral open interest of 2551. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 185 [2]. - EC2604 has a latest成交价 of 1227 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 1.55%, with a trading volume of 25237 and a unilateral open interest of 35881. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2200 [2]. - EC2606 has a latest成交价 of 1542.8 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.57%, with a trading volume of 5606 and a unilateral open interest of 12303. The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2608 has a latest成交价 of 1607 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 1.54%, with a trading volume of 694 and a unilateral open interest of 1594 [2]. - EC2610 has a latest成交价 of 1122.5 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 2.21%, with a trading volume of 2674 and a unilateral open interest of 8134 [2]. - EC2612 has a latest成交价 of 1435 points, a latest涨跌幅 of 0.61%, with a trading volume of 18 and a unilateral open interest of 137 [2]. - The total trading volume of all contracts is 34682, and the total unilateral open interest is 60600. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2385 [2]. Group 3: Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The weekly SCFIS is 1859.31 points, with a环比涨跌幅 of - 4.9%. The SCFI is 1418 $/TEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of - 4.8% [4]. - The daily TCI(20GP) is 1682 $/TEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.3%. The TCI(40GP) is 2837 $/FEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.4% [4]. Group 4: Basis and Spread - The basis for the previous trading day was 632.31 points, and for the day before the previous trading day was 609.61 points, with a环比变化 of 22.7 [6]. - The spread between different contracts (EC2604 - EC2602, EC2606 - EC2604, etc.) has different trends [6].

集运欧线数据日报 2026/1/26 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌0.1%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1595美元/TEU，环比下跌81美元/TEU，基本对应于 01.26-02.01期间的欧线订舱价，反映1月底船司运价的继续下调。考虑到春节逐渐临近，揽货压力也将逐渐增 加，同时也需为春节假期期间搭建滚动舱位，节前运价进入淡季下降通道。由于光伏等产品出口退税政策调整 或引发4月1日前相关产品的抢出口，带来淡季货量的相对韧性，再加上2025年3月4月船司曾表价宣涨挺价，市 场对于4月运价估值并没有很悲观。参考去年8月9月的抢出口对运价的对冲程度以及抢出口集中大量出货的滞 后可能性，再加上最新船期统计1月底至节前运力投放仍相对充裕，节前或偏向运行偏弱，关注后续出口抢运 情况以及马士基的新开舱。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 ...