2026年2月10日 欧线)。总近月关注开舱指引 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日成交 5 昨日持仓 | | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1.238.0 | -0. 39% | | 14. 384 | 31.132 | -295 - | 0. 46 | | 0. 94 | | | EC2606 | 1.553.0 | -0. 03% | | 2. 206 | 14.726 | -86 | 0. 15 | | 0. 33 | | | | | 本期 | | 2026/2/9 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS:欧洲航线 | | | 1.657.94 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February is expected to drop to around $2080, and the market still has a discount of about 200 points. There is relatively little room for real - level gaming, and the gaming is more focused on the expectation level. The market is highly correlated with the sentiment of the commodity market, and the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on EC should be noted. The key event at the expectation level is the pre - April 1 rush to export products such as photovoltaic, which may lead to an increase in the listed price of shipping companies, stabilize or slightly increase freight rates, but it is difficult to cause full - load cabins during the post - festival off - season. Attention should be paid to the release of shipping companies' price increase notices, which may prove or disprove expectations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1737.8 | 1.15 | 612 (318) | 1883 (- 456) | 1409 | 1652 | - 243 | | EC2604 | 1237.9 | 5.22 | 29296 (- 3522) | 34229 (423) | 19239 | 21845 | - 2606 | | EC2606 | 1533.7 | 2.57 | 3147 (- 2797) | 13458 (860) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1597.9 | 1.32 | 353 (- 778) | 1479 (29) | | | | | EC2610 | 1128.6 | 1.37 | 1355 (- 1149) | 7677 (- 207) | | | | | EC2612 | 1439 | 3.18 | 29 (- 11) | 128 (7) | | | | | Total | - | - | 34792 | 58854 | 20648 | 23497 | - 2849 | [2] 3.2 Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | MoM Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1792.14 | - 3.6% | 1859.31 | - 4.9% | 1954.19 | - 0.1% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1418 | - 4.8% | 1595 | - 2.5% | 1676 | 1.7% | | Spot Freight Rate | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1551 | - 3.3% | 1604 | - 3.3% | 1660 | 0.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2636 | - 3.3% | 2725 | - 2.4% | 2793 | 0.0% | [4] 3.3 Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 554.24 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 607.54 points, with a MoM change of - 53.3 points. There are also trend charts for the basis of the main container shipping European line futures contract and the spreads between different contracts [6]

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/2 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌1.55%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1418美元/TEU，环比下跌177美元/TEU，对应于 02.02-02.08期间的欧线订舱价，反映2月第一周船司运价的加速下调。整体来看，节前现货运价仍将延续下行 为主，现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多可能是预期层面的博弈。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产品 的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于节 后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实层 面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20 ...

金瑞期货分析称，宏观层面，地缘冲突升级推升金属板块风险溢价。基本面方面，佤邦炸药审批进度加 快，供应有恢复预期，锡加工费上调3000元，冶炼环节利润修复预期升温。需求端受锡价高位压制，下 游企业补库意愿持续低迷，市场整体维持谨慎观望态势。展望后市，尽管锡矿供应存在环比修复预期， 但供应依旧偏紧，叠加地缘持续紧张与光伏抢出口支撑，沪锡价格预计延续高位震荡格局。 1月26日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报438850.00元/吨，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及462720.00元，下方探低424340.00元，涨幅达2.71% 附近。 新湖期货表示，当前市场情绪亢奋，物质实现影响的消息也可能被炒作。在当前亢奋的情绪下，锡价继 续强势，但也需警惕市场降温后的回调。操作上不建议追高。中期建议逢低偏多对待。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 广州期货指出，当前整体宏观氛围中性偏多，贵金属继续上冲引领有色金属，锡矿供应脆弱新兴需求刚 性预期赋予价格弹性，资金参与度高涨，价格波动率或继续放大，短期内锡价易 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that tin prices have recently experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 6.41% to 405,240 yuan per ton, reversing the gains from the previous day. This decline is attributed to limited changes in the fundamental supply and demand dynamics despite a surge in investment enthusiasm driven by AI infrastructure and photovoltaic export expectations [1][2] - The recent increase in tin prices has led to a notable rise in LME tin warehouse receipts, with LME tin inventory climbing to approximately 5,900 tons, reflecting an increase of over 90% in the past month. This suggests a growing willingness to hold tin in warehouses as prices rise [1] - Domestic tin prices are at historical highs, which is increasingly suppressing downstream demand. Since January, terminal consumption has remained weak, and with the upcoming Spring Festival, the market is expected to enter a traditional off-season characterized by weak supply and demand, leading to a potential seasonal accumulation of tin ingot social inventory in China [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in tin prices has prompted exchanges to raise the margin requirements, price fluctuation limits, and trading quotas to cool down the overheated market, resulting in a slight adjustment in night trading prices [2] - The upward momentum in precious metals, particularly silver, has also slowed down, which may influence short-term tin prices to enter a high-level oscillation pattern. Future attention will be focused on the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market on January 15 saw more declines than increases, with the main contracts for tin, nickel, and stainless steel rising over 8%, 4%, and 3% respectively, while palladium and platinum fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1677.07 points, down 6.18 points or 0.37% from the previous trading day, and the Commodity Futures Index closed at 2313.35 points, down 8.77 points or 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the metal sector continued, with tin and nickel prices rising due to tightening policies in Indonesia, although there was a slight pullback from intraday highs [3][4] - Tin's supply is expected to tighten as Indonesia sets production quotas significantly below market expectations, while nickel prices are supported by potential reductions in mining quotas, although uncertainties remain regarding actual supply [4] - The agricultural sector, particularly egg prices, is experiencing a rebound due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, with egg futures rising over 2% and reaching a one-month high [4][5] Group 3 - Precious metals have seen a correction after recent highs, with platinum and palladium dropping over 4%, while gold and silver remain strong despite a cooling market sentiment [5][6] - The oil market is under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks, leading to a decline in downstream polyester chain products, with paraxylene futures falling by 2.49% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a dilemma between the urgency to export before the VAT export tax rebate is canceled on April 1, 2026, and the rising costs of raw materials, which are causing hesitation in production decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Export Urgency and Raw Material Costs - Companies are under pressure to complete exports before the VAT export tax rebate is removed, leading to potential missed orders if not acted upon quickly [1]. - The rising prices of raw materials such as silver and aluminum are significantly impacting production budgets, causing companies to reconsider their production plans [1][2]. - The price of battery cells has increased by over 0.1 yuan per watt in the last two months, leading to a halt in procurement by many manufacturers [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Challenges - Companies with large inventories of components produced at lower costs are in a favorable position, while those with low inventories face challenges in sourcing high-cost battery cells for production [2][3]. - The domestic component prices are highly volatile, influenced by the rising costs of metals and the impending cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate [3]. Group 3: Market Uncertainty and Decision-Making - The uncertainty in overseas markets is making it difficult for manufacturers to decide on export strategies, compounded by financial constraints [3][4]. - Some traders are resorting to shipping products overseas for simple packaging to avoid high tariffs, raising questions about future stockpiling strategies [3]. Group 4: Impact on Market Dynamics - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate is expected to push companies towards technological innovation and improving product value to manage cost pressures [5]. - Companies with established overseas production capabilities, such as JinkoSolar, are likely to benefit from the policy changes, as they have mechanisms in place to adjust pricing in response to market fluctuations [5].