1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January, the Container Shipping Index (European Line) has been in a volatile market. The main 2604 contract mostly oscillated between 1100 - 1300 points, reflecting the game between the seasonal off - season and the expectation of price increases during the off - season. The final delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on February 9th was 1769.80 points, basically fulfilling the view mentioned in the December 21st weekly report [10]. - In the spot market, pre - holiday freight rates remained flat, with the FAK central point around $2050/FEU (equivalent to about 1450 points on the SCFIS index). Some shipping companies announced price increases for the first half of March. The expected implementation range of the price increase is between $0 - 500/FEU. The opening price of Maersk in the 10th week can be used as a leading indicator [11]. - For the 2604 contract, compared with the 2504 contract, there is an additional story of photovoltaic rush - export. However, the weak balance of supply and demand from March to April is difficult to change, and there may be fluctuations on a weekly basis, with freight rates potentially showing a high - then - low pattern within a month. Observe whether Maersk's opening price will confirm or refute the March GRI. In the long - term, also pay attention to the possibility of the April GRI. Strategically, wait for the GRI positive news to fade and then short at high prices. The top pressure level for the 04 contract refers to the 2504 delivery settlement price, approximately 1450 points [11]. - For the 2610 contract, the upper pressure level refers to the 2510 contract delivery settlement price of 1161 points. Strategically, continue to hold short positions appropriately during the holiday [11]. - Newly listed contracts on Tuesday: The listing benchmark price of EC2605 is 1235.4 points; EC2607 is 1537.3 points; EC2609 is 1609.5 points, with a daily limit of 30%. Considering that July is a relatively peak season and September is a relatively off - season, historically, the probability that the freight rate central point in July is higher than that in September is very high. Strategically, enter a long - short spread position between July and September with a light position [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of EC2604 is 1238.0, with a daily decline of 0.39%, trading volume of 14,384, and open interest of 31,132, a decrease of 295. The trading volume to open interest ratio is 0.46, compared with 0.94 the previous day. The closing price of EC2606 is 1553.0, with a daily decline of 0.03%, trading volume of 2,206, and open interest of 14,726, a decrease of 86. The trading volume to open interest ratio is 0.15, compared with 0.33 the previous day [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS for the European route is 1657.94 points, with a weekly decline of 7.5%; the SCFIS for the US - West route is 1155.66 points, with a weekly increase of 4.9%. The SCFI for the European route is $1403/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 1.1%; the SCFI for the US - West route is $1801/FEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 3.5% [1]. - **Ocean Freight**: Different carriers have different shipping schedules and freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's ETD is February 26, 2026, ETA is April 7, 2026, the voyage is 39 days, and the freight rates are $1900 for 40' GP and $1200 for 20' GP [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is 96.86, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.93 [1]. 3.2 China - Europe Base: Shipping Capacity - **Weekly Shipping Capacity**: The chart shows the weekly shipping capacity from 2024 - 2026. Note that the undetermined voyages in April 2026 are not included in the shipping capacity statistics [7]. - **2 - 4 Month Shipping Schedule**: In February, there are 11 empty sailings; in March, there are 8 empty sailings and 3 additional sailings; in April, there are 2 empty sailings and 2 specific sailings. The data is updated on February 8, 2026 [8]. 3.3 Macro News - The Israeli military continues to launch raids in multiple areas of the West Bank. - White House officials said that US President Trump clearly stated that he does not support Israel's annexation of the West Bank. - The US Maritime Administration advised US ships to stay away from Iranian waters as much as possible. - The Turkish Foreign Minister said that the US and Iran are both having "sincere negotiations" and "delaying time". - According to the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Tehran can dilute its highly enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions. - The Iranian Foreign Minister said that the US actions have created a "wall of distrust" in Iran towards the US, and Tehran is seeking substantial negotiations to reach an agreement. - According to the Iranian Tasnim News Agency, the advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, Larijani, will visit Oman on Tuesday after having nuclear negotiations with the US in the previous few days [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the Spring Festival. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February is expected to drop to around $2080, and the market still has a discount of about 200 points. There is relatively little room for real - level gaming, and the gaming is more focused on the expectation level. The market is highly correlated with the sentiment of the commodity market, and the intraday impact of commodity sentiment on EC should be noted. The key event at the expectation level is the pre - April 1 rush to export products such as photovoltaic, which may lead to an increase in the listed price of shipping companies, stabilize or slightly increase freight rates, but it is difficult to cause full - load cabins during the post - festival off - season. Attention should be paid to the release of shipping companies' price increase notices, which may prove or disprove expectations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1737.8 | 1.15 | 612 (318) | 1883 (- 456) | 1409 | 1652 | - 243 | | EC2604 | 1237.9 | 5.22 | 29296 (- 3522) | 34229 (423) | 19239 | 21845 | - 2606 | | EC2606 | 1533.7 | 2.57 | 3147 (- 2797) | 13458 (860) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1597.9 | 1.32 | 353 (- 778) | 1479 (29) | | | | | EC2610 | 1128.6 | 1.37 | 1355 (- 1149) | 7677 (- 207) | | | | | EC2612 | 1439 | 3.18 | 29 (- 11) | 128 (7) | | | | | Total | - | - | 34792 | 58854 | 20648 | 23497 | - 2849 | [2] 3.2 Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | MoM Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1792.14 | - 3.6% | 1859.31 | - 4.9% | 1954.19 | - 0.1% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1418 | - 4.8% | 1595 | - 2.5% | 1676 | 1.7% | | Spot Freight Rate | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1551 | - 3.3% | 1604 | - 3.3% | 1660 | 0.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2636 | - 3.3% | 2725 | - 2.4% | 2793 | 0.0% | [4] 3.3 Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 554.24 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 607.54 points, with a MoM change of - 53.3 points. There are also trend charts for the basis of the main container shipping European line futures contract and the spreads between different contracts [6]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the holiday, with limited room for actual trading and more potential for trading based on expectations [1]. - The pre - April 1 export rush of products like photovoltaics may lead to an increase in the listed price of shipping companies, a stable or slightly rising freight rate, and bring real - world drivers to the market. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping companies' price increase letters [1]. Group 2: EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2602 has a latest成交价 of 1716.7 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.02%, with a trading volume of 453 and a unilateral open interest of 2551. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 185 [2]. - EC2604 has a latest成交价 of 1227 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 1.55%, with a trading volume of 25237 and a unilateral open interest of 35881. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2200 [2]. - EC2606 has a latest成交价 of 1542.8 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.57%, with a trading volume of 5606 and a unilateral open interest of 12303. The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2608 has a latest成交价 of 1607 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 1.54%, with a trading volume of 694 and a unilateral open interest of 1594 [2]. - EC2610 has a latest成交价 of 1122.5 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 2.21%, with a trading volume of 2674 and a unilateral open interest of 8134 [2]. - EC2612 has a latest成交价 of 1435 points, a latest涨跌幅 of 0.61%, with a trading volume of 18 and a unilateral open interest of 137 [2]. - The total trading volume of all contracts is 34682, and the total unilateral open interest is 60600. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2385 [2]. Group 3: Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The weekly SCFIS is 1859.31 points, with a环比涨跌幅 of - 4.9%. The SCFI is 1418 $/TEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of - 4.8% [4]. - The daily TCI(20GP) is 1682 $/TEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.3%. The TCI(40GP) is 2837 $/FEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.4% [4]. Group 4: Basis and Spread - The basis for the previous trading day was 632.31 points, and for the day before the previous trading day was 609.61 points, with a环比变化 of 22.7 [6]. - The spread between different contracts (EC2604 - EC2602, EC2606 - EC2604, etc.) has different trends [6].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed significant gains, with the main contract for tin futures opening at 438,850.00 yuan/ton and reaching a high of 462,720.00 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.71% [1] - The overall macro environment is neutral to bullish, with precious metals leading the rise in non-ferrous metals. Weak supply of tin ore and strong demand expectations provide price elasticity, leading to increased market participation and potential for price volatility [2] - The geopolitical tensions have raised the risk premium in the metal sector, while the approval process for explosives in Wa State is accelerating, indicating a potential recovery in supply. However, downstream enterprises remain cautious due to high tin prices, leading to a low willingness to restock [2] Group 2 - Market sentiment is currently exuberant, with news affecting material realization potentially being exaggerated. While tin prices remain strong, caution is advised regarding potential market cooling and subsequent corrections [2] - The main trading range for tin futures is expected to be between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan, with a continued high-level fluctuation anticipated due to tight supply and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that tin prices have recently experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 6.41% to 405,240 yuan per ton, reversing the gains from the previous day. This decline is attributed to limited changes in the fundamental supply and demand dynamics despite a surge in investment enthusiasm driven by AI infrastructure and photovoltaic export expectations [1][2] - The recent increase in tin prices has led to a notable rise in LME tin warehouse receipts, with LME tin inventory climbing to approximately 5,900 tons, reflecting an increase of over 90% in the past month. This suggests a growing willingness to hold tin in warehouses as prices rise [1] - Domestic tin prices are at historical highs, which is increasingly suppressing downstream demand. Since January, terminal consumption has remained weak, and with the upcoming Spring Festival, the market is expected to enter a traditional off-season characterized by weak supply and demand, leading to a potential seasonal accumulation of tin ingot social inventory in China [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in tin prices has prompted exchanges to raise the margin requirements, price fluctuation limits, and trading quotas to cool down the overheated market, resulting in a slight adjustment in night trading prices [2] - The upward momentum in precious metals, particularly silver, has also slowed down, which may influence short-term tin prices to enter a high-level oscillation pattern. Future attention will be focused on the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market on January 15 saw more declines than increases, with the main contracts for tin, nickel, and stainless steel rising over 8%, 4%, and 3% respectively, while palladium and platinum fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1677.07 points, down 6.18 points or 0.37% from the previous trading day, and the Commodity Futures Index closed at 2313.35 points, down 8.77 points or 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the metal sector continued, with tin and nickel prices rising due to tightening policies in Indonesia, although there was a slight pullback from intraday highs [3][4] - Tin's supply is expected to tighten as Indonesia sets production quotas significantly below market expectations, while nickel prices are supported by potential reductions in mining quotas, although uncertainties remain regarding actual supply [4] - The agricultural sector, particularly egg prices, is experiencing a rebound due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, with egg futures rising over 2% and reaching a one-month high [4][5] Group 3 - Precious metals have seen a correction after recent highs, with platinum and palladium dropping over 4%, while gold and silver remain strong despite a cooling market sentiment [5][6] - The oil market is under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks, leading to a decline in downstream polyester chain products, with paraxylene futures falling by 2.49% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a dilemma between the urgency to export before the VAT export tax rebate is canceled on April 1, 2026, and the rising costs of raw materials, which are causing hesitation in production decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Export Urgency and Raw Material Costs - Companies are under pressure to complete exports before the VAT export tax rebate is removed, leading to potential missed orders if not acted upon quickly [1]. - The rising prices of raw materials such as silver and aluminum are significantly impacting production budgets, causing companies to reconsider their production plans [1][2]. - The price of battery cells has increased by over 0.1 yuan per watt in the last two months, leading to a halt in procurement by many manufacturers [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Challenges - Companies with large inventories of components produced at lower costs are in a favorable position, while those with low inventories face challenges in sourcing high-cost battery cells for production [2][3]. - The domestic component prices are highly volatile, influenced by the rising costs of metals and the impending cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate [3]. Group 3: Market Uncertainty and Decision-Making - The uncertainty in overseas markets is making it difficult for manufacturers to decide on export strategies, compounded by financial constraints [3][4]. - Some traders are resorting to shipping products overseas for simple packaging to avoid high tariffs, raising questions about future stockpiling strategies [3]. Group 4: Impact on Market Dynamics - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate is expected to push companies towards technological innovation and improving product value to manage cost pressures [5]. - Companies with established overseas production capabilities, such as JinkoSolar, are likely to benefit from the policy changes, as they have mechanisms in place to adjust pricing in response to market fluctuations [5].