2026/2/9 最新观点 集运欧线数据日报 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 集运欧线：上周五EC上涨2.85%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1403美元/TEU，环比下跌15美元/TEU，基本对应于 02.09-02.15期间的欧线订舱价，反映2月第二周运价的继续下行。整体来看，2月现货运价延续下行为主，春 节当周大柜均价在2050美元左右，测算下来当前市场高点和现货基本持平，贴水幅度收窄，2月现货层面可博 弈的驱动相对有限。目前统计到春节停航主要集中在第9周和第10周，3月第一周运价或较为关键，一方面是 MSC率先提涨后，其他船司的跟涨情况或很大程度上传递船司节后的挺价意愿及3月运价会否跌穿大柜2000美 元，另一方面则是光伏等产品的抢出口会否带来节后货量没那么平淡及对船司挺价信心的支撑，重点关注后续 船司涨价函的公布情况。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1737.8 | 0.00% | 54.3 | 97 | | 1826 | - 57 | | | EC2604 | | 1247.6 | 0.78% | 544.5 | 24199 | | 32761 | -1468 | | | EC2606 | | 1534.0 | 0.02% | 258.1 | 3370 | | 14222 | 764 | | | EC2608 | | 1604.6 | 0.42% | 187.5 | 396 | | 1494 | ાર | | | EC2610 | | 1135.7 | 0.63% | 656.4 | 1963 | | 8185 | 508 | | | Ｆ菱 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | | | 周环比 | ...

马士基2月报价企稳、3月抢运预期、4月淡季预期、以及长协价格压制下，共同04合约在1100-1250点震荡。建议04保持谨慎做空，关注盘面是 否出现显著溢价（向上空间更多取决于资金行为，尤其是当前基差300点，需谨防多头资金拉涨），后续重点关注PA联盟报价情况和地缘形势, 远月来看，建议仍以逢高空10为主，主要基于淡季与退税利空逻辑。06和08估值难瞄定，合理范围内宽幅震荡，地缘犹动下建议谨慎操作。 欧线现货情况: 本周下游正预定2月初（week6-7）的舱位。当下船舶整体收货情况良好，但揽货压力有所增加，且船公司需要为春节假期发出船舶进行揽货. Week7价格中枢2140美金，折盘面1500点。Week8-9MSK开舱1950美金（环比持平），其它船司报价暂时也以沿用为主。 消息面 相关新闻 2/3 以军总参谋长称以军正处于"提升战争准备时期"。 2/3 美媒：伊朗愿暂停核计划 美伊高官通过短信直接交流。据知情官员透露，美国和伊朗的高级官员预计将于周五在伊斯坦布尔会面，旨在缓和 两国之间的紧张局势。据伊朗官员和一位美国官员所述，伊朗外长阿拉格齐和美国特使威特科夫通过短信直接进行沟通。消息人士透露，伊朗恩 意 ...

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/3 最新观点 集运欧线：EC下跌3.06%。节前现货运价仍将延续下行为主，2月第三周大柜均价降至2080美元左右，测算下来 目前市场仍有200-300点左右的贴水，深贴水和强预期下现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多还是集中于预 期层面的博弈。近期商品市场降温，预计也会对市场情绪形成一定压制。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产 品的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于 节后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实 层面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | ...

集运欧线数据日报 2026/2/2 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌1.55%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1418美元/TEU，环比下跌177美元/TEU，对应于 02.02-02.08期间的欧线订舱价，反映2月第一周船司运价的加速下调。整体来看，节前现货运价仍将延续下行 为主，现实层面可博弈的空间相对较小，更多可能是预期层面的博弈。比较主要的事件是4月1日前光伏等产品 的抢出口，结合去年8月9月光伏抢出口的测算来看，可带来大概2艘18000-23000TEU的集装箱船货量，对于节 后淡季来说较难带来爆舱，但更多可能会带来船司的表价提涨和运价的企稳甚至小幅上行，为市场带来现实层 面的驱动，重点关注后续船司涨价函的公布情况可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20 ...

1. Contract Data - EC2602 had a closing price of 1717.5, a decline of -0.09%, a basis of 141.8, a trading volume of 432, an open interest of 2812, and an open interest change of -374 [2][30] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1249.7, an increase of 1.68%, a basis of 609.6, a trading volume of 27481, an open interest of 39669, and an open interest change of -477 [2][30] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1576.0, an increase of 5.55%, a basis of 283.3, a trading volume of ୧୫32, an open interest of 11306, and an open interest change of 1704 [2][30] - EC2608 had a closing price of 1645.4, an increase of 5.42%, a basis of 213.9, a trading volume of 1154, an open interest of 1666, and an open interest change of 117 [2][30] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1151.2, an increase of 1.42%, a basis of 708.1, a trading volume of 2032, an open interest of 8933, and an open interest change of 211 [2][30] 2. Month - Spread Data - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 467.8, with a day - on - day change of -22.2 and a week - on - week change of -111.6 [2][30] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -326.3, with a day - on - day change of -62.1 and a week - on - week change of -51.7 [2][30] 3. Spot and Index Data - The spot (European line) index on 2026/1/26 was 1859.31 points, a decline of -4.86% compared to the previous period [2][30] - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/1/23 was 1676 dollars/TEU, a decline of -4.83% compared to the previous period [2][30] 4. Market Analysis and Suggestions - Recent geopolitical tensions, stable February quotes from Maersk, and potential rush shipments and price - holding stories in March may prevent the market from falling in the short term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward space depends on capital behavior [3][31] - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus of short - selling should be on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be maintained for the 2604 contract unless there is a significant premium on the board [3][31] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they are currently within a reasonable range but are greatly affected by geopolitics, so cautious operation is recommended [3][31] 5. European Line Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 dollars. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the board [4][32] - In Week 6, MSK's opening price was 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2300 - 2400 dollars. The central price was 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the board [4][32] - On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for February weeks 7 - 9 was 1950 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations [4][32] 6. Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready [5][33] - On January 30, US President Trump said that Hamas seemed about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For contract 04, pay attention to spot and actual shipping. Before the Spring Festival, falling spot prices suppress the futures market, so shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, falling freight rates may prompt shipping companies to raise prices and stimulate a post - holiday rush, potentially weakening the decline slope in March. Currently, the valuation of 04 is neutral, with shorting on rallies as the main strategy before the Spring Festival, and geopolitical fluctuations should be noted. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate cautiously, mainly using a positive spread strategy. Currently, the valuation of 10 is moderately high, and opportunities to short 10 on rallies should be monitored. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.53% change, EC2604 at 1193.9 (- 0.52%), EC2606 at 1442.2 (- 0.37%), EC2608 at 1528.4 (+ 0.29%), and EC2610 at 1112.0 (- 0.20%). [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2502 - 2604 spread was 523.6 (previous day: 526.5, previous two days: 579.4, day - on - day change: - 2.9); EC2504 - 2606 spread was - 248.3 (previous day: - 247.4, previous two days: - 274.6, day - on - day change: - 0.9). [2] - **Indices**: SCFIS (on January 26, 2026) was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period; SCFI (on January 23, 2026) was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. - Week 6: MSK opened at 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. - On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February weeks 7 - 9 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations. [4] Relevant News - On January 28, US President Trump announced a large fleet was heading to the Middle East. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group had reached the Indian Ocean and was expected to reach the Arabian Sea in a few days. The US was deploying more transport planes, tankers, and missile defense systems in the region. - On January 28, Iranian officials said they were monitoring the Strait of Hormuz in real - time. An Iranian naval commander said Iran's control of the strait was fully intelligentized. - On January 28, the US was reported to have informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran. Preparations were expected to be completed in two weeks, and there might be an "opportunity window" for action in the next few months. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush shipping. Before the Spring Festival, the falling spot prices suppress the futures market, and shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, as freight rates decline, shipping companies may announce price increases to stabilize prices, which may also trigger a wave of shipping after the Spring Festival, potentially weakening the downward slope of prices in March. Currently, the valuation of EC2604 is moderately high, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered, while geopolitical fluctuations need to be noted. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with caution and mainly adopt a positive spread trading strategy. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is high, and shorting opportunities for EC2610 on rallies can be considered. [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1726.7, up 0.52%, with a basis of 227.5, trading volume of 565, and open interest of 4225, a decrease of 176. [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1200.2, up 5.44%, with a basis of 754.0, trading volume of 43172, and open interest of 41690, an increase of 541. [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1447.6, up 2.46%, with a basis of 506.6, trading volume of 4483, and open interest of 7324, an increase of 1333. [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1524.0, up 1.91%, with a basis of 430.2, trading volume of 614, and open interest of 1515, an increase of 172. [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.2, up 1.94%, with a basis of 840.0, trading volume of 2148, and open interest of 8565, an increase of 195. [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 526.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 52.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 70.9. [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 247.4, with a day - on - day increase of 27.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.6. [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European line): Updated weekly on Monday, as of January 19, 2026, it was 1954.19 points, down 0.11% from the previous period, and up 8.94% from the period before the previous one. [2] - SCFI (European line): Updated weekly, as of January 23, 2026, it was 1595 US dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period and down 2.50% from the period before the previous one. [2] European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 US dollars. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. [4] - Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2050 (a decrease of 400 compared to the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2400 - 2500 US dollars. The central price was 2320 US dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market. [4] Group 4: News and Geopolitical Information - On January 27, a US official said that US President Trump fully agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza would not start until Hamas was demilitarized and disarmed. [4] - On January 27, US President Trump said that the situation in Iran was "changing rapidly" as he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thought Iran really wanted to reach an agreement. [4] - On January 27, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. Iran warned the US that if it launched a military strike, it would attack US aircraft carriers. [4] - On January 26, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority said that this weekend was a sensitive period. On January 25, it notified several foreign airlines that Israel might enter a "sensitive period" around January 30. It emphasized that if the safety assessment showed that a reasonable safety level could not be ensured, Israel would immediately close its airspace and prioritize the departure of foreign flights. [4] - On January 26, an unnamed US official said that the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House ordered an attack on Iran, the carrier strike group could launch a military operation "within one or two days" in theory. [4]

集运欧线数据日报 2026/1/26 最新观点 集运欧线：上周五EC下跌0.1%。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1595美元/TEU，环比下跌81美元/TEU，基本对应于 01.26-02.01期间的欧线订舱价，反映1月底船司运价的继续下调。考虑到春节逐渐临近，揽货压力也将逐渐增 加，同时也需为春节假期期间搭建滚动舱位，节前运价进入淡季下降通道。由于光伏等产品出口退税政策调整 或引发4月1日前相关产品的抢出口，带来淡季货量的相对韧性，再加上2025年3月4月船司曾表价宣涨挺价，市 场对于4月运价估值并没有很悲观。参考去年8月9月的抢出口对运价的对冲程度以及抢出口集中大量出货的滞 后可能性，再加上最新船期统计1月底至节前运力投放仍相对充裕，节前或偏向运行偏弱，关注后续出口抢运 情况以及马士基的新开舱。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual cargo rush. Spot price drops may suppress the market, but the post - Chinese New Year cargo rush could reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying on dips during the spot price bottom - finding process [3][33] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. A positive spread trading strategy is generally recommended, and also pay attention to shorting the EC2610 contract when the price rises (the current valuation of the EC2610 is neutral with limited downside) [3][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.6, up 0.02%, with a basis of 248.8, a trading volume of 748, an open interest of 4681, and an open interest change of -425 [2][32] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.7, up 0.71%, with a basis of 818.7, a trading volume of 19477, an open interest of 40770, and an open interest change of -529 [2][32] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1399.1, up 1.53%, with a basis of 557.3, a trading volume of 3227, an open interest of 4883, and an open interest change of 826 [2][32] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1498.4, up 0.83%, with a basis of 458.0, a trading volume of 128, an open interest of 1353, and an open interest change of 6 [2][32] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1086.4, up 1.09%, with a basis of 870.0, a trading volume of 1037, an open interest of 8318, and an open interest change of -29 [2][32] 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The day - on - day change was -7.6, and the week - on - week change was -19.6 [2][32] - EC2504 - 2606: The day - on - day change was -13.1, and the week - on - week change was -71.2 [2][32] 3.3 Index Data - Spot (European Line): As of 2026/1/12, the index was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from the period before the previous one [2][32] - SCFI: As of 2026/1/16, it was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2][32] 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK's opening price was 2750 (up 100 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), OA was 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures [4][34] - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (special offer at 2200), OA was 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [4][34] - February Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2000/2100 (down 400 month - on - month), currently OA is 2400 - 2600, PA is 2000 - 2200. The central price is about 2300 dollars, equivalent to about 1600 points on the futures [4][34] 3.5 News - On Wednesday, YML lowered its February freight rates. The FAK quote remained at 2400, and the special offer dropped from 2100 to 2000. CMA quoted a February freight rate of 2600 online. Other shipping companies remained unchanged [4][34] - On Thursday, COSCO quoted 2500 on the European line, and EMC cut its price to 2400 [4][34] - On 1/23, Israeli President Herzog said Hamas still held hostages in Gaza. The real test of the second - stage cease - fire was Hamas' withdrawal from Gaza. Hezbollah was trying to reorganize and rebuild, and the Houthi rebels were still active [5][35] - On 1/23, Trump said there were only small - scale conflicts left in ending the Gaza conflict. If Hamas didn't fulfill its promise to lay down arms, it would be finished. He also said action must be taken against Hezbollah and Lebanon [5][35] - On 1/23, the Iranian Speaker said all cities in Iran had returned to peace [5][35]