week2：MSK平开2500美金，但汉堡港开舱2600（+100）；PA部分跌价，OA涨价。中枢2860美金，折盘约2000点. 1月下部分船司发布涨价函。 (1月1日，MSC发布1月下半月涨价函，欧线的20GP和40GP箱子分别宣涨至2400/4000美元) MSK对week3开舱2600美金,汉堡2700 (+100)。 消息面 相关新闻 1/1 以军总参课长：将继续推进解除哈马斯武装行动。当地时间2025年12月31日，以色列国防军发布通告，表示以军总参谋长扎米尔当天在加沙 地带南部进行视察，并就以军近期行动及未来安全形势发表讲话。扎米尔表示，以军将继续推进解除巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）武装的 行动。以军在解除哈马斯武装这一问题上有着充分的决心，不允许其重新建立力量。 1/6 以军向黎巴嫩南部多地居民发布撤离警告。当地时间1月5日，以色列国防军向黎巴嫩南部4个村庄居民发布紧急撤离警告，称将分别打击巴勒 斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）与黎巴嫩真主党相关军事墓础设施。以军阿拉伯语发言人阿德拉伊发表声明，呼吁黎南部安南与曼纳拉两村居民 立即懒离，称以军即将打击该地区的哈马斯军事墓础设施。另据以军发布的单 ...

隻运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵ ਕੇ | | 昨日收费价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1801.3 | 0.35% | -58.7 | 21505 | | 24130 | -3725 | | | EC2604 | | 1166.0 | 0.50% | 5/6.6 | 4507 | | 20919 | -322 | | | EC2606 | | 1367.9 | -0.11-1% | 374.7 | 414 | | 2152 | -78 | | | EC2608 | | 1500.0 | -0.01% | 242.6 | 65 | | 1195 | -1 | | | EC2610 | | 1060.0 | 0.38% | 682.6 | 319 | | 6024 | - 60 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环比 | ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持合变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1795.1 | -1.53% | -52.5 | 24777 | | 27855 | -2582 | | | EC2604 | | 1160.2 | -0.83% | 582.4 | 7238 | | 21241 | 44 | | | EC2606 | | 1370.0 | -0.29% | 372.6 | 856 | | 2230 | - 1249 | | | EC2608 | | 1500.1 | 0.16% | 242.5 | 86 | | 1196 | -10 | | | EC2610 | | 1056.0 | 0.12% | 686.6 | 643 | | 6084 | 72 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the EC2602 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The far - month contracts face the risk of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, which may lead to a downward revision of their valuations. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to expect it to fluctuate, while the EC2602 contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is currently no arbitrage strategy [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Prices - As of December 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 61,674.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,873.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1699.80, 1124.10, 1283.70, 1448.10, 1045.20, and 1632.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On December 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2652 US dollars/FEU. On December 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 924.36 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 3 - week monthly average weekly capacity was 326,000 TEU, and in January, it was 322,700 TEU, and in February, it was 276,700 TEU. There were 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February (both blank sailings from the OA alliance). In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to resume sailing through the Red Sea. The Gaza cease - fire mediation plan is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation in 2026, which may increase effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the time for shipping companies to sign contracts and maintain prices will also be postponed [4][5].

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1775.7 | 0.70% | -418.0 | 4067 | | 8060 | -1508 | | | EC2602 | | 1631.0 | -0.55% | -273.3 | 32775 | | 42029 | 1785 | | | EC2604 | | 1163.0 | 0.03% | 194.7 | 3097 | | 16014 | 70 | | | EC2606 | | 1381.1 | -0.07% | -23.4 | 218 | | 1575 | -7 | | | EC2608 | | 1505.0 | 1.00% | -147.3 | 92 | | 1224 | 12 | | | EC2610 | | 1109.0 | -0.09% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The focus should be on the spot freight rate trend, and the bearish sentiment on the market is due to the spot freight rate being lower than the expected increase [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - From November 14th to 17th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index dropped 5.12% to 999.69 points. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route decreased 9.8% to 1357.67 points, while the NCFI for the European route rose 7.42% to 979.34 points. The SCFIS for the US - West route fell 6.9% to 1238.42 points, and the NCFI for the US - West route dropped 21.99% to 1052.43 points [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on November 14th was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index rose 3.4% to 1094.03 points. The SCFI European line price increased 7.1% to 1417 USD/TEU, and the CCFI for the European route rose 2.7% to 1403.64 points. The SCFI US - West route decreased 17.59% to 1823 USD/FEU, and the CCFI for the US - West route rose 3.9% to 846.24 points [1]. PMI Data - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast of - 8.5 [1]. - In China in October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2]. Market Conditions - On November 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1640.1, with a decline of 2.66%. The trading volume was 18,700 lots, and the open interest was 40,200 lots, an increase of 1384 lots from the previous day [2]. - The bearish sentiment persisted, and the spot freight rate was lower than the expected increase, causing the market to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to take a light - position long in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt due to large fluctuations [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - The bullish signals released by liner companies have warmed the market sentiment. Long - position funds have continuously entered, pushing up the futures price. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. - For different time - frame strategies: in the short - term, risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking; in the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1267.15 points, up 14.4%. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1100.32 points, up 12.60%; for the European route, it was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US - West route, it was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US - West route, it was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1021.39 points, up 2.9%; for the European route, it was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US - West route, it was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. b. PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [2]. - **China**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stable corporate production and operation activities [2]. - **US**: In October, the S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. c. Tariff and Trade - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [2][3]. d. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak while the far - month contract is strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. e. Market Conditions on November 5 - The main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, with a 4.08% increase, a trading volume of 4.12 million lots, and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on July 22, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is - 20.81, down 4.06 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 30.70% and an all - time percentile of 21.70% [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the F inter - delivery spread, where the season - month minus the current - month is - 41.00, down 32.20, with a 1 - year percentile of 20.00% and an all - time percentile of 26.40% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the IC/IF ratio is 1.4898, up 0.0051, with a 1 - year percentile of 62.20% and an all - time percentile of 60.20% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report provides data on IRR, basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures on July 22, 2025, including their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Summary by Category - **IRR**: The 15 - year IRR is 1.6099, down 0.0053 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 24.90% [2]. - **Basis**: For example, the T basis is 1.5727, down 0.0409, with a historical percentile of 53.80% [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Like the TS inter - delivery spread, the current - season minus the alternate - season is - 0.0080, with a historical percentile of 11.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Such as the TS - TF spread, which is - 3.5350 on July 22, 2025, up 0.0210, with a historical percentile of 8.10% [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and holdings of precious metals on July 22, 2025, along with their changes [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 781.70 yuan/gram on July 21, up 4.68 (0.60%) from July 18 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price was 3396.67 dollars/ounce on July 21, up 47.01 (1.40%) from July 18 [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is - 4.70, down 1.05, with a 1 - year percentile of 5.60% [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 86.91, down 0.42 (- 0.48%) [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.38%, down 0.06 (- 1.4%) [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The SPRD gold ETF holding is 947 tons, up 3.44 (0.36%) [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The report offers information on Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data on July 22, 2025 [7]. Summary by Category - **Freight Rates**: The CMA CGM's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate is 4226 dollars/FEU on July 21, up 124 (3.78%) from July 20 [7]. - **Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2400.50 points on July 21, down 21.4 (- 0.89%) from July 14 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1486.4 on July 21, down 8.7 (- 0.58%) from July 18, and the basis of the main contract is 956.5, down 22.1 (- 2.26%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.67 on July 22, unchanged from July 21 [7]. Group 5: Trading Calendar Core Viewpoints - The report lists overseas and domestic data and information release schedules on July 22, 2025, including various economic indicators and events [9]. Summary by Category - **Overseas Data**: Such as New Zealand's log exports [9]. - **Domestic Data**: For example, the inventory of manganese ore by variety and the throughput of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port for manganese - silicon [9].