Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rates in February continued to decline. The average price of 40 - foot containers during the Spring Festival week was around $2050, and the current market high is basically the same as the spot price, with the discount narrowing. There is relatively limited driving force for the spot market in February [1]. - The freight rates in the first week of March are crucial. On one hand, after MSC took the lead in raising prices, whether other shipping companies will follow up will largely reflect their willingness to support prices after the Spring Festival and whether the freight rates in March will fall below $2000 for 40 - foot containers. On the other hand, whether the rush - export of products such as photovoltaic will bring non - dull post - festival cargo volume and support the shipping companies' confidence in price support. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of shipping companies' price increase letters [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1739.9 | - 0.14 | 223 (- 57) | 1429 (- 173) | 1160 | 1275 | - 115 | | EC2604 | 1231.2 | - 2.85 | 29451 (- 14543) | 31427 (- 3234) | 17917 | 21762 | - 3845 | | EC2606 | 1531 | - 1.63 | 4900 (- 966) | 14812 (- 76) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1613.2 | - 0.36 | 482 (- 106) | 1387 (- 53) | | | | | EC2610 | 1119 | - 1.31 | 1114 (- 646) | 7878 (- 272) | | | | | EC2612 | 1415 | - 0.69 | 12 (- 2) | 139 (2) | | | | | Total | - | - | 36182 | 57072 | 19077 | 23037 | - 3960 | [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Change Rate (%) | Previous Period | Change Rate (%) | Two Periods Ago | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1792.14 | - 3.6 | 1859.31 | - 4.9 | 1954.19 | - 0.1 | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1403 | - 1.1 | 1418 | - 11.1 | 1595 | - 4.8 | | Spot Freight Rates | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1551 | 0.0 | 1551 | 0.0 | 1551 | - 3.3 | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2636 | 0.0 | 2636 | 0.0 | 2636 | - 3.3 | [4] Basis Spread The basis of the previous trading day was 560.94 points, and that of the day before the previous trading day was 523.94 points, with a change of 37 points. There are also trend charts of the basis of the main contract of container shipping European line futures and the spreads between different contracts [6].

Group 1: Contract Information - EC2602 contract had a closing price of 1737.8 with 0.00% change, a basis of 54.3, 97 in trading volume, 1826 in open interest, and a 57 decrease in open interest [2] - EC2604 contract had a closing price of 1247.6 with 0.78% change, a basis of 544.5, 24199 in trading volume, 32761 in open interest, and a 1468 decrease in open interest [2] - EC2606 contract had a closing price of 1534.0 with 0.02% change, a basis of 258.1, 3370 in trading volume, 14222 in open interest, and a 764 increase in open interest [2] - EC2608 contract had a closing price of 1604.6 with 0.42% change, a basis of 187.5, 396 in trading volume, and 1494 in open interest [2] - EC2610 contract had a closing price of 1135.7 with 0.63% change, a basis of 656.4, 1963 in trading volume, 8185 in open interest, and a 508 increase in open interest [2] - The spread between EC2502 - 2604 was 490.2, with a day - on - day change of - 9.7 and a week - on - week change of 22.4 [2] - The spread between EC2504 - 2606 was - 286.4, with a day - on - day change of 9.4 and a week - on - week change of 39.9 [2] Group 2: Spot and Index Information - The spot price of the European line was 1792.14 points on 2026/2/2, with a 3.61% decrease from the previous period and a 4.86% decrease in the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) was 1418 dollars/TEU on 2026/1/30, with an 11.10% decrease from the previous period and a 4.83% decrease in the previous period [2] Group 3: Market Analysis and Recommendations - Near - term, due to Maersk's stable February quotes, March rush - shipping expectations, April off - season expectations, and long - term contract price suppression, the 04 contract is expected to oscillate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. Future focus should be on PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] - In the long - term, it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the off - season and negative factors. The valuations of 06 and 08 are difficult to anchor, and they are expected to oscillate widely within a reasonable range. Cautious operation is recommended under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 4: European Line Spot Situation - This week, downstream is booking cabins for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - loading situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday [4] - The price center in week 7 was 2140 dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures market. From week 8 - 9, MSK's cabin opening price was 1950 dollars (flat compared to the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes also remained the same for the time being [4] Group 5: News - On 2/5, it was reported that the Iran - US nuclear negotiations would resume. The negotiations are scheduled to be held in Muscat, Oman at around 10 am local time on Friday (2 pm Beijing time on the 6th). Previously, there were reports that the negotiations were cancelled due to differences over whether the negotiation content should focus only on the nuclear issue. Affected by the fluctuating news, oil prices gave back half of their previous gains [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances are high. Under the influence of Maersk's stable February quotes, the expectation of a rush to ship in March, the expectation of an off - season in April, and the suppression of long - term contract prices, the 04 contract will fluctuate between 1100 - 1250 points. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling the 04 contract and pay attention to whether there is a significant premium on the market. The upward space depends more on capital behavior. With the current basis of 300 points, beware of long - position capital driving up the price. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies, mainly based on the bearish logic of the off - season and tax rebates. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. It is recommended to operate with caution under geopolitical disturbances [3][30] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Contract Information - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1720.0, up 0.19%, with a basis of 72.1, a trading volume of 294, an open interest of 2339, and an open interest change of - 212 [2][29] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1184.6, down 3.46%, with a basis of 607.5, a trading volume of 32818, an open interest of 33806, and an open interest change of - 2075 [2][29] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1513.1, down 1.93%, with a basis of 279.0, a trading volume of 5944, an open interest of 12598, and an open interest change of 295 [2][29] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1607.9, up 0.06%, with a basis of 184.2, a trading volume of 1131, an open interest of 1450, and an open interest change of - 144 [2][29] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1130.0, up 0.67%, with a basis of 662.1, a trading volume of 2504, an open interest of 7884, and an open interest change of - 250 [2][29] 3.2 Month - spread Information - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 535.4, the value two days ago was 489.7, the value three days ago was 467.8, the daily change was 45.7, and the weekly change was 11.8 [2][29] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 328.5, the value two days ago was - 315.8, the value three days ago was - 326.3, the daily change was - 12.7, and the weekly change was - 80.2 [2][29] 3.3 Index Information - Spot (European route): Updated weekly on Mondays, as of 2026/2/2, the value was 1792.14 points, down 3.61% from the previous period and down 4.86% from the period before the previous one [2][29] - SCFI (European route): Updated weekly on Fridays, as of 2026/1/30, the value was 1418 dollars/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period and down 4.83% from the period before the previous one [2][29] 3.4 European Route Spot Situation - This week, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early February (week 6 - 7). Currently, the overall cargo - receiving situation of ships is good, but the pressure to attract cargo has increased, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships departing during the Spring Festival holiday. The price center in week 7 is 2140 US dollars, equivalent to 1500 points on the market. From week 8 - 9, MSK's opening price is 1950 US dollars (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies' quotes are also mainly unchanged [4][31] 3.5 News - On 2/3, the Israeli army's chief of staff said that the Israeli army is in a "period of enhancing war preparedness" [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that Iran is willing to suspend its nuclear program, and senior US and Iranian officials are communicating directly via text messages. Senior US and Iranian officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions between the two countries. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi and US envoy Witkoff are communicating directly via text messages. Sources said that Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear program, which is regarded as a major concession. However, it prefers to adopt the proposal of establishing a regional nuclear power production consortium put forward last year. Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani recently met with Russian President Putin in Moscow and conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, indicating that Iran can agree to transport its enriched uranium inventory to Russia, similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [4][31] - On 2/3, US media reported that the US - Iran nuclear negotiations are expected to be held on Friday, and the US envoy has a busy schedule this week [4][31]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line is expected to continue to decline before the holiday. The average price of 40 - foot containers in the third week of February will drop to around $2,080. There is still a discount of about 200 - 300 points in the market. The real - level game space is relatively small, and the game is more concentrated on the expectation level. The cooling of the commodity market will suppress market sentiment. The pre - export rush of products such as photovoltaic before April 1 may bring cargo volume equivalent to about 2 container ships of 18,000 - 23,000 TEU, which may lead to price increases by shipping companies, price stabilization or a slight increase, and attention should be paid to the expected falsification caused by the release of shipping companies' price increase letters [1]. 3. Summary by Directory EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Position (Top 20 Members) | Short Position (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1720 | 0.22 | 294 (-159) | 2339 (-212) | 1779 | 1975 | -196 | | EC2604 | 1184.6 | -3.06 | 32818 (7581) | 33806 (-2075) | 19798 | 21616 | -1818 | | EC2606 | 1513.1 | -2.62 | 5944 (338) | 12598 (295) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1607.9 | -0.54 | 1131 (437) | 1450 (-144) | | | | | EC2610 | 1130 | 0.78 | 2504 (-170) | 7884 (-250) | | | | | EC2612 | 1405 | -0.99 | 40 (22) | 121 (-16) | | | | | Total | - | - | 42731 | 58198 | 21577 | 23591 | -2014 | [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | MoM Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | MoM Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1792.14 | -3.6% | 1859.31 | -4.9% | 1954.19 | -0.1% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1418 | -4.8% | 1595 | -2.5% | 1676 | 1.7% | | Spot Freight Rate | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | -1.3% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2793 | 0.0% | 2793 | 0.0% | 2793 | -1.6% | [4] Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was 674.71 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was 632.31 points, with a change of 42.4 points. There are also trend charts of the basis of the main futures contract of the European container shipping line and the spreads between different contracts [6].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The spot freight rate for the European container shipping line will continue to decline before the holiday, with limited room for actual trading and more potential for trading based on expectations [1]. - The pre - April 1 export rush of products like photovoltaics may lead to an increase in the listed price of shipping companies, a stable or slightly rising freight rate, and bring real - world drivers to the market. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping companies' price increase letters [1]. Group 2: EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2602 has a latest成交价 of 1716.7 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.02%, with a trading volume of 453 and a unilateral open interest of 2551. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 185 [2]. - EC2604 has a latest成交价 of 1227 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 1.55%, with a trading volume of 25237 and a unilateral open interest of 35881. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2200 [2]. - EC2606 has a latest成交价 of 1542.8 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.57%, with a trading volume of 5606 and a unilateral open interest of 12303. The net long position of the top 20 members is 0 [2]. - EC2608 has a latest成交价 of 1607 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 1.54%, with a trading volume of 694 and a unilateral open interest of 1594 [2]. - EC2610 has a latest成交价 of 1122.5 points, a latest涨跌幅 of - 2.21%, with a trading volume of 2674 and a unilateral open interest of 8134 [2]. - EC2612 has a latest成交价 of 1435 points, a latest涨跌幅 of 0.61%, with a trading volume of 18 and a unilateral open interest of 137 [2]. - The total trading volume of all contracts is 34682, and the total unilateral open interest is 60600. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2385 [2]. Group 3: Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The weekly SCFIS is 1859.31 points, with a环比涨跌幅 of - 4.9%. The SCFI is 1418 $/TEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of - 4.8% [4]. - The daily TCI(20GP) is 1682 $/TEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.3%. The TCI(40GP) is 2837 $/FEU, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.4% [4]. Group 4: Basis and Spread - The basis for the previous trading day was 632.31 points, and for the day before the previous trading day was 609.61 points, with a环比变化 of 22.7 [6]. - The spread between different contracts (EC2604 - EC2602, EC2606 - EC2604, etc.) has different trends [6].

1. Contract Data - EC2602 had a closing price of 1717.5, a decline of -0.09%, a basis of 141.8, a trading volume of 432, an open interest of 2812, and an open interest change of -374 [2][30] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1249.7, an increase of 1.68%, a basis of 609.6, a trading volume of 27481, an open interest of 39669, and an open interest change of -477 [2][30] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1576.0, an increase of 5.55%, a basis of 283.3, a trading volume of ୧୫32, an open interest of 11306, and an open interest change of 1704 [2][30] - EC2608 had a closing price of 1645.4, an increase of 5.42%, a basis of 213.9, a trading volume of 1154, an open interest of 1666, and an open interest change of 117 [2][30] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1151.2, an increase of 1.42%, a basis of 708.1, a trading volume of 2032, an open interest of 8933, and an open interest change of 211 [2][30] 2. Month - Spread Data - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 467.8, with a day - on - day change of -22.2 and a week - on - week change of -111.6 [2][30] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -326.3, with a day - on - day change of -62.1 and a week - on - week change of -51.7 [2][30] 3. Spot and Index Data - The spot (European line) index on 2026/1/26 was 1859.31 points, a decline of -4.86% compared to the previous period [2][30] - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/1/23 was 1676 dollars/TEU, a decline of -4.83% compared to the previous period [2][30] 4. Market Analysis and Suggestions - Recent geopolitical tensions, stable February quotes from Maersk, and potential rush shipments and price - holding stories in March may prevent the market from falling in the short term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward space depends on capital behavior [3][31] - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus of short - selling should be on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be maintained for the 2604 contract unless there is a significant premium on the board [3][31] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they are currently within a reasonable range but are greatly affected by geopolitics, so cautious operation is recommended [3][31] 5. European Line Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 dollars. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the board [4][32] - In Week 6, MSK's opening price was 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2300 - 2400 dollars. The central price was 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the board [4][32] - On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for February weeks 7 - 9 was 1950 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations [4][32] 6. Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready [5][33] - On January 30, US President Trump said that Hamas seemed about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For contract 04, pay attention to spot and actual shipping. Before the Spring Festival, falling spot prices suppress the futures market, so shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, falling freight rates may prompt shipping companies to raise prices and stimulate a post - holiday rush, potentially weakening the decline slope in March. Currently, the valuation of 04 is neutral, with shorting on rallies as the main strategy before the Spring Festival, and geopolitical fluctuations should be noted. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate cautiously, mainly using a positive spread strategy. Currently, the valuation of 10 is moderately high, and opportunities to short 10 on rallies should be monitored. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1717.5 with a - 0.53% change, EC2604 at 1193.9 (- 0.52%), EC2606 at 1442.2 (- 0.37%), EC2608 at 1528.4 (+ 0.29%), and EC2610 at 1112.0 (- 0.20%). [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2502 - 2604 spread was 523.6 (previous day: 526.5, previous two days: 579.4, day - on - day change: - 2.9); EC2504 - 2606 spread was - 248.3 (previous day: - 247.4, previous two days: - 274.6, day - on - day change: - 0.9). [2] - **Indices**: SCFIS (on January 26, 2026) was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period; SCFI (on January 23, 2026) was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special price 2200), OA at 2500 - 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. - Week 6: MSK opened at 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA around 2200, MSC at 2340, OA at 2300 - 2400 dollars, with a central price of 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. - On Tuesday, MSK opened at 1950 for February weeks 7 - 9 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations. [4] Relevant News - On January 28, US President Trump announced a large fleet was heading to the Middle East. The "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group had reached the Indian Ocean and was expected to reach the Arabian Sea in a few days. The US was deploying more transport planes, tankers, and missile defense systems in the region. - On January 28, Iranian officials said they were monitoring the Strait of Hormuz in real - time. An Iranian naval commander said Iran's control of the strait was fully intelligentized. - On January 28, the US was reported to have informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran. Preparations were expected to be completed in two weeks, and there might be an "opportunity window" for action in the next few months. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush shipping. Before the Spring Festival, the falling spot prices suppress the futures market, and shorting on rallies is relatively safe. However, as freight rates decline, shipping companies may announce price increases to stabilize prices, which may also trigger a wave of shipping after the Spring Festival, potentially weakening the downward slope of prices in March. Currently, the valuation of EC2604 is moderately high, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered, while geopolitical fluctuations need to be noted. [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with caution and mainly adopt a positive spread trading strategy. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is high, and shorting opportunities for EC2610 on rallies can be considered. [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1726.7, up 0.52%, with a basis of 227.5, trading volume of 565, and open interest of 4225, a decrease of 176. [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1200.2, up 5.44%, with a basis of 754.0, trading volume of 43172, and open interest of 41690, an increase of 541. [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1447.6, up 2.46%, with a basis of 506.6, trading volume of 4483, and open interest of 7324, an increase of 1333. [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1524.0, up 1.91%, with a basis of 430.2, trading volume of 614, and open interest of 1515, an increase of 172. [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1114.2, up 1.94%, with a basis of 840.0, trading volume of 2148, and open interest of 8565, an increase of 195. [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 526.5, with a day - on - day decrease of 52.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 70.9. [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's value was - 247.4, with a day - on - day increase of 27.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.6. [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European line): Updated weekly on Monday, as of January 19, 2026, it was 1954.19 points, down 0.11% from the previous period, and up 8.94% from the period before the previous one. [2] - SCFI (European line): Updated weekly, as of January 23, 2026, it was 1595 US dollars/TEU, down 4.83% from the previous period and down 2.50% from the period before the previous one. [2] European Line Spot Freight Situation - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 US dollars. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market. [4] - Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2050 (a decrease of 400 compared to the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2400 - 2500 US dollars. The central price was 2320 US dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market. [4] Group 4: News and Geopolitical Information - On January 27, a US official said that US President Trump fully agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza would not start until Hamas was demilitarized and disarmed. [4] - On January 27, US President Trump said that the situation in Iran was "changing rapidly" as he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thought Iran really wanted to reach an agreement. [4] - On January 27, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would not stand by in the face of military action against Iran. Iran warned the US that if it launched a military strike, it would attack US aircraft carriers. [4] - On January 26, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority said that this weekend was a sensitive period. On January 25, it notified several foreign airlines that Israel might enter a "sensitive period" around January 30. It emphasized that if the safety assessment showed that a reasonable safety level could not be ensured, Israel would immediately close its airspace and prioritize the departure of foreign flights. [4] - On January 26, an unnamed US official said that the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had entered the US Central Command's area of responsibility in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House ordered an attack on Iran, the carrier strike group could launch a military operation "within one or two days" in theory. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last Friday, EC dropped by 0.1%. The SCFI European line price announced after the market was $1,595/TEU, a decrease of $81/TEU from the previous period, indicating a continued reduction in shipping rates by carriers at the end of January. As the Spring Festival approaches, the pressure to secure cargo will increase, and carriers need to build rolling space for the holiday. Thus, pre - holiday shipping rates are entering a downward channel in the off - season. However, due to the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies for products like photovoltaics, there may be a rush to export related products before April 1st, bringing relative resilience to off - season cargo volume. Considering that carriers announced price hikes in March and April 2025, the market is not overly pessimistic about April shipping rates. Given the hedging effect of the export rush in August and September last year, the possible lag in large - scale concentrated shipments, and the relatively abundant capacity from the end of January to the pre - holiday period, the market may be weak before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the subsequent export rush and Maersk's new space openings [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Change) | Open Interest (Change) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1717.7 | 0.61 | 532 (-216) | 4401 (-280) | 3122 | 3273 | -151 | | EC2604 | 1138.3 | -0.10 | 30781 (11304) | 41149 (379) | 22932 | 25495 | -2563 | | EC2606 | 1412.9 | 1.40 | 4476 (1249) | 5791 (908) | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2608 | 1495.5 | -0.62 | 218 (90) | 1343 (-10) | | | | | EC2610 | 1093 | 1.28 | 1528 (491) | 8370 (52) | | | | | EC2612 | 1338.5 | -0.28 | 53 (20) | 121 (-7) | | | | | Total | - | - | 37588 | 61175 | 26054 | 28768 | -2714 | [2] Latest Spot Shipping Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Change Rate from Previous Period | Previous Period | Change Rate from Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Change Rate from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1954.19 | -0.1% | 1956.39 | 8.9% | 1795.83 | 3.1% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1595 | -2.5% | 1676 | 1.7% | 1719 | 0.0% | | Spot Shipping Rates | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1749 | 0.0% | 1749 | 0.0% | 1749 | 0.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2943 | 0.0% | 2943 | 0.0% | 2943 | 0.0% | [4] Basis Spread (Points) - The basis spread on the previous trading day was 815.89 points, and on the day before the previous trading day was 816.49 points, with a change of - 0.6 points [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual cargo rush. Spot price drops may suppress the market, but the post - Chinese New Year cargo rush could reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying on dips during the spot price bottom - finding process [3][33] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. A positive spread trading strategy is generally recommended, and also pay attention to shorting the EC2610 contract when the price rises (the current valuation of the EC2610 is neutral with limited downside) [3][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.6, up 0.02%, with a basis of 248.8, a trading volume of 748, an open interest of 4681, and an open interest change of -425 [2][32] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.7, up 0.71%, with a basis of 818.7, a trading volume of 19477, an open interest of 40770, and an open interest change of -529 [2][32] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1399.1, up 1.53%, with a basis of 557.3, a trading volume of 3227, an open interest of 4883, and an open interest change of 826 [2][32] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1498.4, up 0.83%, with a basis of 458.0, a trading volume of 128, an open interest of 1353, and an open interest change of 6 [2][32] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1086.4, up 1.09%, with a basis of 870.0, a trading volume of 1037, an open interest of 8318, and an open interest change of -29 [2][32] 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The day - on - day change was -7.6, and the week - on - week change was -19.6 [2][32] - EC2504 - 2606: The day - on - day change was -13.1, and the week - on - week change was -71.2 [2][32] 3.3 Index Data - Spot (European Line): As of 2026/1/12, the index was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from the period before the previous one [2][32] - SCFI: As of 2026/1/16, it was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2][32] 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK's opening price was 2750 (up 100 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), OA was 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures [4][34] - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (special offer at 2200), OA was 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [4][34] - February Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2000/2100 (down 400 month - on - month), currently OA is 2400 - 2600, PA is 2000 - 2200. The central price is about 2300 dollars, equivalent to about 1600 points on the futures [4][34] 3.5 News - On Wednesday, YML lowered its February freight rates. The FAK quote remained at 2400, and the special offer dropped from 2100 to 2000. CMA quoted a February freight rate of 2600 online. Other shipping companies remained unchanged [4][34] - On Thursday, COSCO quoted 2500 on the European line, and EMC cut its price to 2400 [4][34] - On 1/23, Israeli President Herzog said Hamas still held hostages in Gaza. The real test of the second - stage cease - fire was Hamas' withdrawal from Gaza. Hezbollah was trying to reorganize and rebuild, and the Houthi rebels were still active [5][35] - On 1/23, Trump said there were only small - scale conflicts left in ending the Gaza conflict. If Hamas didn't fulfill its promise to lay down arms, it would be finished. He also said action must be taken against Hezbollah and Lebanon [5][35] - On 1/23, the Iranian Speaker said all cities in Iran had returned to peace [5][35]