美国贸易逆差在9月收窄幅度超出预期，降至逾五年来最低水平，令市场对第三季度净出口为经济增长提 供提振的预期升温。 (截图来源：英国《金融时报》) 根据美国商务部周四(12月11日)公布的数据，商品出口与进口之间的差额较上月下降11%，至528亿美元。 这使逆差降至2020年6月以来最小，同时也低于路透调查经济学家此前预测的633亿美元。 出口较8月增长3%，至2893亿美元，主要由非货币性黄金推动。进口则上升0.6%。 美国经济分析局(BEA)将于12月23日公布第三季度GDP初值，届时会纳入上述贸易数据。 数据公布后，亚特兰大联储估计，截至9月30日的三个月里，美国实际GDP增速将达到3.6%，较其12月5日 的前次预测上调0.1个百分点。 英国路透社在贸易数据发布前调查的经济学家则预计，该期间经济增速为3%。 美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)对经济前景表示乐观。他周日对CBS表示："尽管发生了'舒默导致的关 门'，我们仍将以3%的实际GDP增速结束这一年。" 凯投宏观(Capital Economics)北美首席经济学家Paul Ashworth表示，9月出口增加87亿美元中，大部分来自 ...

Core Insights - The latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce indicates a significant narrowing of the trade deficit in August, attributed to a sharp decline in imports following the implementation of global tariffs announced by President Trump [1][3] - The trade deficit for goods and services decreased by nearly 24% from July, reaching $59.6 billion, which was better than the market expectation of $60.4 billion [1][3] Trade Data Summary - Total imports in August fell by 5.1%, marking the largest decline in four months, while exports saw a slight increase [3] - The previous month, July, experienced an expansion of the trade deficit due to businesses accelerating inventory purchases ahead of the implementation of tariffs [3] - The volatility in trade data is expected to impact economic indicators such as GDP, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicating a 0.57 percentage point contribution from net exports to Q3 GDP [3] Import Dynamics - The primary reason for the decline in imports was a significant reduction in non-monetary gold imports, directly linked to increased tariffs on Swiss gold products [3] - The U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland has notably narrowed due to these tariff adjustments, and an agreement has been reached to lower gold import taxes [3] - Additionally, there was a decrease in imports of capital goods, including computer parts and communication equipment [3] Adjusted Trade Deficit - After inflation adjustment, the trade deficit for goods in August narrowed to $83.7 billion, the smallest since the end of 2023 [3] - The trade deficit with China expanded to its highest level since April, while the deficit with Mexico slightly decreased and the deficit with Canada significantly narrowed [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. current account deficit surged to $450.2 billion in Q1, significantly higher than the revised $312 billion from the previous quarter, marking a record high [1] - The increase in the current account deficit is primarily attributed to a substantial rise in the trade deficit, driven by fluctuating trade policies and tariffs [1] Trade Data Summary - Exports rose by $21.1 billion to reach $539 billion, while imports skyrocketed by $158.2 billion to $1 trillion [1] - The surge in imports was mainly fueled by "non-monetary gold" and consumer goods, particularly pharmaceuticals and dental products [1] - The increase in gold imports blurred the lines between ordinary goods and investment products [1] - The growth in exports was largely driven by civil aircraft and computer-related products [1]