Yesterday was the first day of the 2026 annual meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations, which is organized by the American Economic Association. The 3-day conference, held in Philadelphia this year, features hundreds of sessions covering a wide variety of economics and other social science research. This year, Equitable Growth’s grantee network, Steering Committee, and Research Advisory Board and their research are well-represented throughout the program, featured in many different sessions of the ...

辛格警告说，英国经济发展的前景仍然"非常偏向下行"，并补充说英国在某些方面"仍然很大程度上依赖于过去的辉煌"，而且预算案公布前对潜在增税的猜 测，本身在最近几个月就阻碍了经济的发展。 CEBR警告称，美国总统特朗普积累巨额国债的策略可能会引发"痛苦的金融市场调整"，从而导致英国的借贷成本飙升。英国工人每天都在经历实际工资大 幅下降和税收增加的影响。 官方数据显示，英国家庭的生活水平仍然低于疫情暴发前，在长期生活成本危机的影响下，人均可支配收入尚未恢复到2019年的水平。 尽管人均GDP有所下降，但CEBR预测，按照国家GDP计算，英国有望成为世界第五大经济体，并至少保持这一地位到2040年，这主要是由于"其他类似规 模的经济体表现不佳"。具体而言，该研究预测，英国GDP将从2025年的略低于4万亿美元增长到未来15年的6.8万亿美元，这意味着英国有望在下一个十年 末超过日本，重新成为全球第五大经济体。 ▲远眺伦敦塔桥 CEBR参与此项研究报告的普什平·辛格表示，英国面临高通胀、高债务和低增长的"三重挑战"。他警告说，由于竞争对手税收更低、监管更宽松，英国的竞 争力正在被削弱，而"削减政府开支的困境"依然存在。 ...

高市早苗政府与日本央行就加息问题的矛盾又一次浮出水面。 在外界屏息静待日本央行年前最后一次议息会议前，高市早苗政府又一次发出了不同声音。 17日，日本央行前副行长、高市早苗政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄（Masazumi Wakatabe）警告称，日 本央行应避免过早加息和过度收紧货币政策。 分歧 若田部昌澄表示，日本当务之急是通过财政政策和增长战略提高中性利率。他主张，只有在中性利率因 政策驱动而上升后，日本央行加息才顺理成章。 分析认为，若田部昌澄上述表态的核心观点在于重新定义加息的先决条件。背后的逻辑则是"高市经济 学"政策框架的体现。他还表示，高市的经济主张虽然带有"安倍经济学"的成分，但重心更加着眼于强 化经济的供应面。 但值得注意的是，日本央行此前一直避免把"中性利率"估值作为指引未来加息路径的主要沟通工具。日 本央行解释称，未来的加息决策将取决于观察过去的利率上调如何影响银行贷款、企业融资条件以及其 他广泛的经济活动，以此来判断下一次行动的时机。 对于通胀前景，若田部昌澄持温和看法，这也是他反对急于加息的依据之一。他解释道，随着能源和食 品成本的涨势趋缓，日本的通胀可望放缓，甚至可能跌破2%。他认为 ...

美国贸易逆差在9月收窄幅度超出预期，降至逾五年来最低水平，令市场对第三季度净出口为经济增长提 供提振的预期升温。 (截图来源：英国《金融时报》) 根据美国商务部周四(12月11日)公布的数据，商品出口与进口之间的差额较上月下降11%，至528亿美元。 这使逆差降至2020年6月以来最小，同时也低于路透调查经济学家此前预测的633亿美元。 出口较8月增长3%，至2893亿美元，主要由非货币性黄金推动。进口则上升0.6%。 美国经济分析局(BEA)将于12月23日公布第三季度GDP初值，届时会纳入上述贸易数据。 数据公布后，亚特兰大联储估计，截至9月30日的三个月里，美国实际GDP增速将达到3.6%，较其12月5日 的前次预测上调0.1个百分点。 英国路透社在贸易数据发布前调查的经济学家则预计，该期间经济增速为3%。 美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)对经济前景表示乐观。他周日对CBS表示："尽管发生了'舒默导致的关 门'，我们仍将以3%的实际GDP增速结束这一年。" 凯投宏观(Capital Economics)北美首席经济学家Paul Ashworth表示，9月出口增加87亿美元中，大部分来自 ...

中新社柏林12月11日电 (马秀秀 杨楚瑜)德国多家权威经济研究机构11日在发布的冬季预测报告中，下 调了德国未来几年的经济增长预期。分析认为，德国经济结构性问题和美国关税影响持续拖累经济。 多家研究机构建议德国采取推进全面数字化、简化行政、改善投资环境并增强创新能力等措施，否则德 国经济可能面临竞争力进一步下滑的风险。(完) 其中，伊弗经济研究所将德国2026年和2027年的增长预测分别下调至0.8%和1.1%，均较此前预期减少 0.5个百分点；2025年预期也下调至仅增长0.1%。基尔世界经济研究所和莱布尼茨经济研究所作出相同 判断。 [ 责编：张璋 ] 美国关税亦显著影响德国经济。伊弗经济研究所预计，美国关税政策将在2025年拉低德国经济增速0.3 个百分点，2026年拉低0.6个百分点。尽管美国与欧盟之间的贸易争端有所缓和，但关税带来的不确定 性仍然高企。 分析认为，德国经济现代化进程迟缓、行政流程繁琐、基础设施老化以及在人工智能等关键技术上落 后，均制约了竞争力。 伊弗经济研究所专家蒂莫·沃尔默斯豪泽称，联邦政府的经济刺激措施在短期内有所帮助，但不足以从 长期上扩大德国经济的生产能力。德国经济正在失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Munich Economic Institute reported a decline in Germany's business climate index for November, indicating a cautious outlook among businesses and potential stagnation in the economy [1] Group 1: Business Climate Index - The adjusted business climate index fell from 88.4 points in October to 88.1 points in November, marking a second consecutive decline after a drop in September [1] - Among the four components of the business climate index, only the services sector showed an increase, while manufacturing, construction, and trade indicators all decreased [1] Group 2: Business Sentiment - Manufacturing companies reported a reduction in orders and a more cautious outlook for the coming months [1] - Retailers expressed disappointment regarding sales performance at the start of the Christmas season [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The director of the Munich Economic Institute, Clemens Fuest, noted a renewed weakening of business confidence, particularly in expectations for future market developments [1] - ING's macro research head, Carsten Brzeski, highlighted that the implementation of various fiscal measures announced earlier in the year has not progressed as expected, leading to diminished optimism and impacting both business and consumer confidence [1] - External factors such as U.S. tariffs and a stronger euro are exacerbating export pressures on Germany, contributing to a stagnant economic outlook as the year ends [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the negative impact of Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on Taiwan, which deteriorates Sino-Japanese relations and could lead to significant economic losses for Japan, particularly in tourism, with estimates of over 2 trillion yen in losses if the situation persists for more than a year [2] - Japanese economic experts warn that a reduction in Chinese tourists could result in a loss exceeding 2 trillion yen for Japan's tourism industry, especially affecting local economies [2] - The Japanese government has approved a comprehensive economic policy package worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen, but this fiscal stimulus in an inflationary environment may have adverse effects, such as exacerbating yen depreciation and rising prices [3] Group 2 - The reliance on issuing government bonds to cover budget deficits is expected to lead to rising long-term interest rates, which could further cool down the Japanese economy [4] - The negative consequences of rising long-term interest rates are emphasized, as they are a result of the government's inability to secure fiscal sources and reliance on bond issuance [6]

Group 1 - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, driven by improvements in consumption and exports [1] - KDI has also increased the 2026 growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.8%, with private consumption expected to grow by 1.3% due to lower interest rates and government support [1] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a 2.9% increase in exports, despite the pressure from U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - KDI highlights the need for gradual normalization of expansionary fiscal policies, warning that maintaining the current stance could lead to a fiscal deficit exceeding 4% of GDP [1] - The institute suggests reforms in the tax system and fiscal framework to address issues related to low birth rates and an aging population [2] - KDI predicts inflation rates of 2.1% and 2.0% for the current and next year, respectively, indicating that the current monetary policy stance is generally appropriate [3]

Core Insights - The economic benefits of smoking control far exceed the tax contributions claimed by the tobacco industry, with significant findings presented at the recent Beijing International Forum on Smoke-Free City Construction [1] Group 1: Shanghai's Smoking Control Legislation - Shanghai's implementation of smoke-free legislation in 2017 led to a 2.2% decrease in smoking rates among urban residents, with a projected economic benefit of 1.7 trillion RMB by 2035 if similar policies are adopted nationwide [2][4] - The Shanghai regulations are considered among the most comprehensive in China, prohibiting smoking in indoor public places and imposing fines for violations, contributing to a significant reduction in smoking rates [2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Smoking Control in Beijing - Over the past decade, Beijing's smoking control measures have generated a total economic benefit of 125.7 billion RMB, accounting for 0.23% of the city's GDP during the same period [4] - The reduction in smoking rates has led to improved health outcomes, translating into increased labor productivity and reduced healthcare costs, with an estimated annual savings of 26.4 million RMB in medical expenses for 2024 [4][5] Group 3: Broader Implications and Recommendations - Researchers advocate for the nationwide adoption of comprehensive smoke-free legislation, citing the positive economic impacts observed in both Beijing and Shanghai as evidence of the potential benefits [5] - The analysis suggests that the actual economic benefits may be even higher than reported, as it does not account for reductions in secondhand smoke exposure and related fire losses [5]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of respondents positively evaluated the stock market performance in Q3 and are optimistic about the market conditions in Q4 [2][3]. Economic Performance - Over half (54.1%) of respondents expect China's GDP growth in Q3 to be between 4.8% and 5% [4]. - As of the end of September, social financing scale and broad money (M2) maintained a rapid growth rate, indicating a sustained moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - More than half (55.7%) of respondents believe that the monetary policy in Q3 maintained a moderate level of implementation [4]. Stock Market Evaluation - All respondents rated the stock market performance in Q3 with scores of 3 or above (out of 5), indicating a generally positive sentiment [4]. - 85.2% of respondents rated the stock market performance with scores of 4 or 5, an increase of 6.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. Anti-"Involution" Policies - Over 70% (75.4%) of respondents rated the effectiveness of various anti-"involution" policies implemented in Q3 with scores of 3 or above [5]. - 44.2% of respondents rated these policies with a score of 3, reflecting a neutral to positive sentiment towards the efforts to address "involution" in competition [5]. Q4 Market Outlook - The economic foundation remains solid, with significant potential, leading to a positive outlook for the stock and foreign exchange markets in Q4 [7]. - 95.1% of respondents rated the expected stock market conditions in Q4 with scores of 3 or above, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to previous assessments [7]. - 88.5% of respondents expect the RMB to USD exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.2 for most of Q4 [8]. Investment Confidence - 47.5% of respondents anticipate that private investment confidence will stabilize in Q4, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous survey [7]. - 23% of respondents expect a slight increase in private investment confidence, up by 4.6 percentage points from the last survey [7]. Policy Recommendations - 82% of respondents suggest that part of the 2026 "two new" quotas should be allocated in advance to boost year-end consumption [11]. - Over 40% (41%) of respondents recommend that the People's Bank of China should consider timely cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in Q4 [12]. - Respondents expressed a strong interest in reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in fiscal and tax systems, income distribution, and social security [9][13].