Economic Performance - The UK economy stagnated in July, highlighting challenges for the government in promoting growth and repairing public finances ahead of the high-risk budget in November [1] - Manufacturing decline offset growth in services and construction, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Economic growth rate slowed from 0.3% in the three months to June to 0.2% in the three months to July [1] Government Response - The Treasury acknowledged the need for more work to stimulate economic growth, indicating that while the economy has not collapsed, it feels stuck [1] - A new "Budget Committee" has been established by Starmer to coordinate efforts between Downing Street and the Treasury ahead of the budget release on November 26 [1] - The government claims to be making progress in reversing the investment shortfalls from previous Conservative administrations [1] Fiscal Challenges - Economists predict that Reeves will be forced to increase taxes in the budget, with estimates suggesting the government may need to raise over £20 billion to fill fiscal gaps [2] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4% during the upcoming meeting, having cut rates five times since summer 2024 [2] - July's inflation rate was reported at 3.8%, significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2%, with signs of a deteriorating labor market [2]

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张嘉怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新社香港9月25日电 菲沙研究所25日发布《世界经济自由度2025年度报告》(简称"报告")，香港继续 获评为全球最自由经济体。 在五个评估大项中，香港在"国际贸易自由"蝉联首位，在"稳健货币"及"监管"的排名高居全球第三位。 香港特区政府发言人表示，报告充分肯定香港自由市场优势及开放、高效、公平的营商环境。在当前单 边主义和保护主义加剧、冲击国际贸易体系和全球经济秩序之际，香港将坚定保持自由港地位，实行自 由贸易、简单低税制等政策，保障资金、资讯、货物及人才自由流动，发挥"超级联系人"与"超级增值 人"的角色与功能，吸引全球企业与人才来港发展。今年以来，多项关于金融、创科、教育、人才等的 国际竞争力排名中，香港续创佳绩，反映香港的核心优势与特区政府推动经济社会发展的努力，获得国 际认同。 发言人指出，展望未来，香港将积极融入国家发展大局，发挥好内联外通的优势，为全球投资者创造价 值和机遇。"有国家的坚实支持、特区政府和社会各界的共同努力，香港发展前景必将更加亮丽。"(完) (机遇香港)香港再次获评为全球最自由经济体 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian economy faced a GDP decline of 1.6% in the second quarter, indicating ongoing challenges ahead [1] - The economic contraction was primarily driven by severe net trade impacts, although the likelihood of a similar situation recurring is low [1] - Revised GDP data for June and preliminary estimates for July suggest insufficient economic growth momentum, indicating that third-quarter performance may fall short of the Bank of Canada's previous expectations [1] Group 2 - Capital Economics posits that the Bank of Canada may soon resume interest rate cuts in response to weakened economic growth and heightened downside risks [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate is testing the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3801, with a potential breakthrough improving short-term price momentum [1] - If the USD/CAD surpasses the 1.3801 level, it may target the four-month high of 1.3924 established on August 22, with further resistance at the five-month high of 1.4016 reached on May 13 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite facing severe external conditions, Bosnia's economic growth remains resilient, with a projected acceleration to 2.5% in 2024 and a return to a potential level of 3% by 2027 [1] - The report highlights that consumption levels were suppressed in the first quarter due to political uncertainty, but high-frequency indicators show a recovery in consumption starting from the second quarter [1] - Overall inflation is expected to rapidly decline to 1.7% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023, before rising to 2.3% in May 2025, with core inflation stabilizing around 4% [1] Group 2 - The report identifies several downward risks to Bosnia's economic outlook, including trade uncertainties, a slowdown in the European economy, commodity price volatility, tightening global financial conditions, and escalating political tensions [2] - It emphasizes the need for Bosnia's fiscal policy to focus on medium-term consolidation, rebuilding buffer space, and improving the quality of public spending, supported by a strong structural reform agenda [2] - The report suggests that Bosnia should promptly implement priority actions for anti-money laundering organizations to avoid being placed on a gray list, which could hinder its ability to gain further growth benefits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy is experiencing persistent core inflation, making it difficult for the Bank of Canada to consider interest rate cuts [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation in Canada decreased to 1.7% in July due to the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax and falling energy prices [1] - However, rising prices for food, housing, and durable goods are offsetting this decline, with durable goods price increases potentially reflecting the impact of tariffs [1] - The company anticipates that both overall and core inflation rates (currently above 3%) will gradually rise in the short term as the costs from the US-Canada tariff dispute are passed on to retail prices [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.75% during the meeting on September 17 [1] Currency Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3856, with a slight increase of 0.02% from the opening price of 1.3855 [1] - The currency pair may be forming a "wedge" pattern, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 60 indicating significant selling pressure [1] - Key resistance is noted around the 1.3878 level, while important support is at 1.3758; a break below this support could confirm a continuation of the downtrend, targeting 1.3375 [1]

Group 1 - Japanese local governments are beginning or planning to impose accommodation taxes to address infrastructure pressures from an increase in foreign tourists [1] - A survey indicated that 42 local governments have started or plan to implement accommodation taxes, with over 90 more considering it [1] - The accommodation tax rates are set at approximately 200 yen (about 9.8 RMB) per person per night, with some high-end accommodations charging up to 1000 yen (about 48.8 RMB) or more [1] Group 2 - Concerns exist among some local governments regarding the accommodation tax, particularly about the clarity of tax usage and the burden on small accommodation operators [2] - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, marking eight consecutive months of inflation above 3% [2] - The increase in food prices is the primary driver of inflation, with significant price hikes in various food categories [2] Group 3 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [3] - Economic risks remain a concern, especially in light of past economic downturns linked to external factors such as U.S. tariffs [3]

Demographic Trends - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and above will account for 10.2%, indicating a shift to a mildly aging society, with projections of 13.1% by 2035[2][15]. - China will officially enter a moderately aging society by 2024, with 15.6% of its population aged 65 and above, and is expected to reach 22.8% by 2035[3][25]. Challenges Faced by China - China is experiencing accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above projected to reach 15.6% in 2024, nearing Japan's 1997 aging level[3][32]. - The total fertility rate in China has dropped to 1.0 in 2023, one of the lowest among major economies, indicating a severe challenge of low birth rates[3][28]. Economic Implications - The aging population will lead to a decline in the labor force, exerting downward pressure on potential growth rates, which are expected to drop to around 5.0% by 2026-2030 and further to 4.5% by 2031-2035[4][61]. - Japan's experience shows that after crossing two demographic turning points, the economy faced persistent negative output gaps, with 69% of the quarters from 1993 to 2024 recording negative growth gaps[4][68]. Inflation Dynamics - Aging populations typically exert inflationary pressures; however, many developed economies have experienced deflationary trends due to mismatched supply and demand shocks[5][74]. - In China, the short-term impact of aging may suppress inflation, but long-term effects could lead to upward inflationary pressures as labor supply contracts[5][80]. Policy Recommendations - To address the challenges of an aging population, increasing labor productivity is crucial, which can be achieved through technological advancements, raising labor participation rates, and attracting foreign labor[6][81]. - China should focus on enhancing its social security system to manage the economic impacts of an aging population effectively[6][32].

Core Viewpoint - The latest PMI data supports the view that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October, contrary to expectations of a delay until early next year [1] Group 1: PMI Data Insights - Japan's composite PMI rose to 51.4, marking a four-month high [1] - Both manufacturing and services PMIs showed slight increases in June [1] - The manufacturing output index indicates a re-acceleration in industrial production, while new export orders suggest moderate sales growth [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The services PMI is significantly above historical averages, aligning with substantial growth in consumer spending [1] - Overall, there is a strong rationale for the Bank of Japan to consider an interest rate hike in October [1]

Group 1 - The persistent rise in oil prices may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, as it could weaken demand and impact the resilient labor market [1] - Historically, sudden spikes in oil prices have only temporarily increased inflation, and the Fed typically overlooks this; however, the current economic slowdown makes the threat to growth and employment more significant than the temporary inflation boost [1] - The market may take weeks to gain clarity on oil price trends, with baseline predictions suggesting the Fed may initiate rate cuts in December [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that prolonged conflicts and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, potentially driving U.S. inflation back to around 6% [2] - Rising gasoline prices, which have been a key factor in the recent cooling of inflation, could reverse trends, leading to a delay in the Fed's first rate cut until early 2026 [2] - Higher energy costs may trigger a chain reaction in supply chains, causing prices of other goods and services to rise, potentially resulting in a stagflation scenario [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Town Economic Innovation Development Forum was held in Beijing, where the research results of "2025 China's High-Quality Development of Town Economy" were released, revealing the "2025 Town Economic Top 500 and Central and Western Top 100" [1] - A total of 14 towns from Sichuan entered the national top 500, ranking 8th among all provinces, with Mianyang having the highest number of towns at 8, including two new entries [1] - In the Western Top 100 list, Mianyang, Chengdu, Meishan, and Suining each had multiple towns listed, with Mianyang having 13 towns, an increase of one from last year [1] Group 2 - The development of town economies in Sichuan is on the rise, with Mianyang showing a competitive development trend, while other cities like Suining and Meishan also have significant potential [2] - Recommendations for high-quality development of town economies include creating a new ecosystem for industrial development, selecting a leading industry, nurturing a chain enterprise, building a core industrial park, and establishing supportive policies [2] - The strategy also emphasizes revitalizing land resources, promoting data sharing, facilitating technology integration, diversifying financing, and nurturing local talent [2]