新华社柏林11月24日电（记者车云龙）德国慕尼黑经济研究所24日公布的数据显示，经季节调整后，德 国11月商业景气指数从上月的88.4点降至88.1点，继9月出现年内首次下滑之后，该指数本月再度下行。 数据显示，构成商业景气指数的四项指标中，除服务业指标环比上升外，制造业、建筑业和贸易指标均 下降。慕尼黑经济研究所在声明中说，制造业企业反映订单减少，对未来几个月的预期更趋谨慎；零售 商对圣诞季开局的销售表现也感到失望。 慕尼黑经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特说，在德企业信心再度走弱，尤其体现在对未来市场发展的预 期更加谨慎。整体来看，德国经济短期内能否复苏仍存疑问。 荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管卡斯滕·布热斯基认为，德国今年年初陆续公布的多项财政措施在落实过程 中进展不及预期，相关乐观情绪持续减弱，并对企业和消费者信心造成影响。同时，美国关税、欧元走 强等因素加剧德国出口压力，年底经济仍呈现停滞态势。 慕尼黑经济研究所商业景气指数被视为德国经济发展的风向标，对观察德国经济形势具有重要参考价 值。（完） ...

2025.11. 23 本文字数：595，阅读时长大约1分钟 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生： 如果这样的中日关系持续1年以上，即使没有 2.6万亿日元，也将减少2万亿日元以上的中国游客消费，对于日本的旅游产业，特别是地方经济将 造成巨大冲击。 日本政府进行财政刺激将产生反作用 21日，日本政府敲定规模约为21.3万亿日元的综合经济对策。熊野英生表示，在当前日本处于通胀 状态下进行财政刺激，将产生反作用。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生： 这不是通缩时的财政刺激，是通胀时的财政刺 激，会导致日元贬值加剧、物价上升。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生： 长期利率上升将使经济降温，反面作用也会增 大。这正是财政来源难以确保、不得不依赖发行国债带来的弊端。 微信编辑 | 七三 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com 据央视新闻，日本首相高市早苗的涉台错误言论破坏中日关系政治基础， ...

Group 1 - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, driven by improvements in consumption and exports [1] - KDI has also increased the 2026 growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.8%, with private consumption expected to grow by 1.3% due to lower interest rates and government support [1] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a 2.9% increase in exports, despite the pressure from U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - KDI highlights the need for gradual normalization of expansionary fiscal policies, warning that maintaining the current stance could lead to a fiscal deficit exceeding 4% of GDP [1] - The institute suggests reforms in the tax system and fiscal framework to address issues related to low birth rates and an aging population [2] - KDI predicts inflation rates of 2.1% and 2.0% for the current and next year, respectively, indicating that the current monetary policy stance is generally appropriate [3]

Core Insights - The economic benefits of smoking control far exceed the tax contributions claimed by the tobacco industry, with significant findings presented at the recent Beijing International Forum on Smoke-Free City Construction [1] Group 1: Shanghai's Smoking Control Legislation - Shanghai's implementation of smoke-free legislation in 2017 led to a 2.2% decrease in smoking rates among urban residents, with a projected economic benefit of 1.7 trillion RMB by 2035 if similar policies are adopted nationwide [2][4] - The Shanghai regulations are considered among the most comprehensive in China, prohibiting smoking in indoor public places and imposing fines for violations, contributing to a significant reduction in smoking rates [2] Group 2: Economic Impact of Smoking Control in Beijing - Over the past decade, Beijing's smoking control measures have generated a total economic benefit of 125.7 billion RMB, accounting for 0.23% of the city's GDP during the same period [4] - The reduction in smoking rates has led to improved health outcomes, translating into increased labor productivity and reduced healthcare costs, with an estimated annual savings of 26.4 million RMB in medical expenses for 2024 [4][5] Group 3: Broader Implications and Recommendations - Researchers advocate for the nationwide adoption of comprehensive smoke-free legislation, citing the positive economic impacts observed in both Beijing and Shanghai as evidence of the potential benefits [5] - The analysis suggests that the actual economic benefits may be even higher than reported, as it does not account for reductions in secondhand smoke exposure and related fire losses [5]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of respondents positively evaluated the stock market performance in Q3 and are optimistic about the market conditions in Q4 [2][3]. Economic Performance - Over half (54.1%) of respondents expect China's GDP growth in Q3 to be between 4.8% and 5% [4]. - As of the end of September, social financing scale and broad money (M2) maintained a rapid growth rate, indicating a sustained moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - More than half (55.7%) of respondents believe that the monetary policy in Q3 maintained a moderate level of implementation [4]. Stock Market Evaluation - All respondents rated the stock market performance in Q3 with scores of 3 or above (out of 5), indicating a generally positive sentiment [4]. - 85.2% of respondents rated the stock market performance with scores of 4 or 5, an increase of 6.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. Anti-"Involution" Policies - Over 70% (75.4%) of respondents rated the effectiveness of various anti-"involution" policies implemented in Q3 with scores of 3 or above [5]. - 44.2% of respondents rated these policies with a score of 3, reflecting a neutral to positive sentiment towards the efforts to address "involution" in competition [5]. Q4 Market Outlook - The economic foundation remains solid, with significant potential, leading to a positive outlook for the stock and foreign exchange markets in Q4 [7]. - 95.1% of respondents rated the expected stock market conditions in Q4 with scores of 3 or above, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to previous assessments [7]. - 88.5% of respondents expect the RMB to USD exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.2 for most of Q4 [8]. Investment Confidence - 47.5% of respondents anticipate that private investment confidence will stabilize in Q4, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from the previous survey [7]. - 23% of respondents expect a slight increase in private investment confidence, up by 4.6 percentage points from the last survey [7]. Policy Recommendations - 82% of respondents suggest that part of the 2026 "two new" quotas should be allocated in advance to boost year-end consumption [11]. - Over 40% (41%) of respondents recommend that the People's Bank of China should consider timely cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in Q4 [12]. - Respondents expressed a strong interest in reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in fiscal and tax systems, income distribution, and social security [9][13].

Economic Performance - The UK economy stagnated in July, highlighting challenges for the government in promoting growth and repairing public finances ahead of the high-risk budget in November [1] - Manufacturing decline offset growth in services and construction, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Economic growth rate slowed from 0.3% in the three months to June to 0.2% in the three months to July [1] Government Response - The Treasury acknowledged the need for more work to stimulate economic growth, indicating that while the economy has not collapsed, it feels stuck [1] - A new "Budget Committee" has been established by Starmer to coordinate efforts between Downing Street and the Treasury ahead of the budget release on November 26 [1] - The government claims to be making progress in reversing the investment shortfalls from previous Conservative administrations [1] Fiscal Challenges - Economists predict that Reeves will be forced to increase taxes in the budget, with estimates suggesting the government may need to raise over £20 billion to fill fiscal gaps [2] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4% during the upcoming meeting, having cut rates five times since summer 2024 [2] - July's inflation rate was reported at 3.8%, significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2%, with signs of a deteriorating labor market [2]

Core Insights - Hong Kong has been recognized as the world's freest economy in the Fraser Institute's "World Economic Freedom 2025 Annual Report" [1] - The report highlights Hong Kong's top ranking in "International Trade Freedom" and strong positions in "Sound Money" and "Regulation" [1] - The Hong Kong government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining its status as a free port and promoting free trade and low tax policies [1] Group 1 - Hong Kong ranks first in "International Trade Freedom" and third in both "Sound Money" and "Regulation" globally [1] - The report acknowledges Hong Kong's advantages in a free market and its open, efficient, and fair business environment [1] - The government aims to attract global businesses and talent by ensuring the free flow of capital, information, goods, and people [1] Group 2 - The government plans to actively integrate into the national development framework to create value and opportunities for global investors [1] - Hong Kong's recent achievements in various international competitiveness rankings reflect its core advantages and the government's efforts in economic and social development [1] - The government expresses confidence in a bright future for Hong Kong, supported by national backing and collective efforts from various sectors [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian economy faced a GDP decline of 1.6% in the second quarter, indicating ongoing challenges ahead [1] - The economic contraction was primarily driven by severe net trade impacts, although the likelihood of a similar situation recurring is low [1] - Revised GDP data for June and preliminary estimates for July suggest insufficient economic growth momentum, indicating that third-quarter performance may fall short of the Bank of Canada's previous expectations [1] Group 2 - Capital Economics posits that the Bank of Canada may soon resume interest rate cuts in response to weakened economic growth and heightened downside risks [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate is testing the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3801, with a potential breakthrough improving short-term price momentum [1] - If the USD/CAD surpasses the 1.3801 level, it may target the four-month high of 1.3924 established on August 22, with further resistance at the five-month high of 1.4016 reached on May 13 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite facing severe external conditions, Bosnia's economic growth remains resilient, with a projected acceleration to 2.5% in 2024 and a return to a potential level of 3% by 2027 [1] - The report highlights that consumption levels were suppressed in the first quarter due to political uncertainty, but high-frequency indicators show a recovery in consumption starting from the second quarter [1] - Overall inflation is expected to rapidly decline to 1.7% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023, before rising to 2.3% in May 2025, with core inflation stabilizing around 4% [1] Group 2 - The report identifies several downward risks to Bosnia's economic outlook, including trade uncertainties, a slowdown in the European economy, commodity price volatility, tightening global financial conditions, and escalating political tensions [2] - It emphasizes the need for Bosnia's fiscal policy to focus on medium-term consolidation, rebuilding buffer space, and improving the quality of public spending, supported by a strong structural reform agenda [2] - The report suggests that Bosnia should promptly implement priority actions for anti-money laundering organizations to avoid being placed on a gray list, which could hinder its ability to gain further growth benefits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy is experiencing persistent core inflation, making it difficult for the Bank of Canada to consider interest rate cuts [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation in Canada decreased to 1.7% in July due to the cancellation of the consumer carbon tax and falling energy prices [1] - However, rising prices for food, housing, and durable goods are offsetting this decline, with durable goods price increases potentially reflecting the impact of tariffs [1] - The company anticipates that both overall and core inflation rates (currently above 3%) will gradually rise in the short term as the costs from the US-Canada tariff dispute are passed on to retail prices [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 2.75% during the meeting on September 17 [1] Currency Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3856, with a slight increase of 0.02% from the opening price of 1.3855 [1] - The currency pair may be forming a "wedge" pattern, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 60 indicating significant selling pressure [1] - Key resistance is noted around the 1.3878 level, while important support is at 1.3758; a break below this support could confirm a continuation of the downtrend, targeting 1.3375 [1]