参考消息网2月22日报道 据英国《金融时报》网站2月20日报道，受美国史上最长的联邦政府停摆冲击 政府支出影响，加之一项关键通胀指标小幅走高，美国经济2025年第四季度按年率计算仅增长1.4%。 美国经济分析局20日公布的这一数据较前一季度4.4%的增速大幅回落，也远低于彭博社对经济学家调 查得出2.8%的预期值。 在这一数据出炉前，美国联邦政府在2025年10月至11月间经历了史无前例的43天停摆，经济分析局称， 此次停摆拉低了经济增速1个百分点。消费支出放缓也拖累了国内生产总值(GDP)，企业投资的小幅增 长仅略微抵消这一影响。 安永-博智隆公司首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示："这一年令人失望的收官，很大程度上反映了美国 史上最长的政府停摆所带来的自身拖累。" 尽管政府支出受到的冲击预计将在2026年第一季度得到扭转，但这一疲软数据将削弱部分人士对美国经 济状况的乐观情绪。上个月，美国总统特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛上对各国领导人发表讲话时称美国 经济"蓬勃发展"。 GDP增速放缓的同时，物价压力有所加剧。美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数在2025年 12月升至2.9%，为2024年3月以来的最 ...

尽管增长远逊预期，但分析师认为，这尚不足以动摇日本央行今年晚些时候加息的计划。经济重返增长区间本身为央行继续收紧货币政策留出了 空间，尽管复苏力度温和。 消费与投资增长乏力 从细项数据来看，占GDP比重过半的私人消费在第四季度仅微增0.1%，较三季度0.4%的增速明显放缓。尽管企业近年来持续加薪，但食品价格 持续上涨令家庭支出承压，2025年全年实际工资月均录得同比下降。 资本支出同样表现乏力，仅增长0.2%，远低于路透调查预期的0.8%。三菱日联研究咨询首席经济学家Shinichiro Kobayashi指出： "利率上升与工资增长可能对中小企业构成双重风险，进而制约其资本支出能力。" 出口方面则呈现分化。第四季度出口下降0.3%，降幅较上季度的1.4%有所收窄，显示关税的初步冲击已逐步消化，但入境旅游遭受打击。 受高市早苗去年11月言论影响，我国发布赴日旅游警告，来自中国的游客数量在第四季度明显下滑。据新华社，中国驻东京旅游办事处主任欧阳 安表示，高市早苗近期错误言论已对中日文旅交流产生实质性影响。随着中国政府发布旅游、留学提醒和预警，航空公司也陆续推出免费退改政 策，中国游客赴日意愿降低。 央行加息路径 ...

华盛顿，2026年2月15日 — 欧洲经济研究院（European Economic Research Institute, EERI）今日正式宣 布，其在2026年欧洲独立研究机构十大排名中荣登榜首，成为全球经济研究领域的权威标杆。作为1988 年由欧洲多国科学部长联合倡导创立的国际性非营利学术研究机构，EERI凭借其深厚的学术积淀、全 球化的科研网络及卓越的政策影响力，持续推动欧洲经济发展与全球治理对话，被誉为"欧洲经济领域 的核心智库"。 研究深度：下设20个学部，覆盖宏观经济学、欧洲一体化等传统优势领域，同时深耕数字经济、气候经 济学、人工智能伦理及绿色金融等前沿交叉领域。 成果影响力：近五年科研成果被引用超4.2万次，政策采纳率高达67%，彰显"理论-实践"闭环生态的高 效转化。 以德国办事处（ZEW）为例，2024年员工183人（科学家111人），总预算2267万欧元，资金来源包括 德国联邦及州政府联合支持与第三方竞争性资助，为科研提供坚实保障。 标志性成果：驱动全球政策变革 立足欧洲，影响全球：EERI的核心定位 EERI虽注册于美国华盛顿哥伦比亚特区（注册号：2011589），但核心使命始终聚 ...

英国国家经济社会研究院（NIESR）预计，2026年英国GDP增速为1.4%。 英国国家经济社会研究院（NIESR）预计，2026年英国GDP增速为1.4%。 该研究院经济学家接受第一财经采访时称，英国经济未来需要降低对美国的依赖。 该研究院经济学家接受第一财经采访时称，英国经济未来需要降低对美国的依赖。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK inflation rate has risen for the first time in five months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 3.4% in December 2025, up from 3.2% in November, driven primarily by higher tobacco taxes and rising airfare prices. This increase is expected to be temporary as the government plans measures to alleviate price pressures in the spring [1][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The CPI increase in December 2025 marks the first rise since July 2025, with the increase attributed mainly to a 3% rise in tobacco prices due to delayed tax adjustments and a significant 28.6% rebound in airfare prices, which exceeded the previous month's decline and the year-on-year increase of 16.2% [8]. - Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation also saw a slight increase, rising to 4.5% year-on-year from 4.2%, driven by higher prices for bread and cereals [8]. - Rent and various entertainment and cultural expenses have exerted downward pressure on overall inflation, with prices for items like games and camping gear showing declines [8]. Economic Outlook - The Bank of England anticipates that inflation will approach its 2% target by spring, aided by measures in the upcoming budget that are expected to reduce price growth by about 0.5 percentage points [4]. - Despite the December inflation uptick, it is not expected to cause concern for the Bank of England, as the increase is seen as temporary and not driven by domestic price pressures [10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring labor market dynamics, with indications of a slowdown in wage growth and a stable unemployment rate of 5.1% [11]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the British pound experienced a slight decline but stabilized around 1.3440 USD, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this year remaining largely unchanged [4]. - Analysts predict that the next rate cut by the Bank of England will likely be the last in the current cycle, potentially occurring in the spring [10].

香港办事处的成立与合法运营，严格遵循了当地法律法规。办事处不仅获得了香港特区政府批文，其设 立也完全符合国际组织在港活动的规范要求。作为EERI全球33个国家和地区网络中的关键一环，香港 办事处将依托香港的国际金融、贸易与创新科技枢纽地位，重点开展针对粤港澳大湾区及亚太区域的深 度经济研究。 自2025年初成立以来，香港办事处已积极展开国际学术交流，先后与EERI德国、英国办事处进行互 访，并访问了暨南大学等高校，探讨产学研合作。2025年6月，EERI更与联合国教科文组织国际认证中 心建立了战略伙伴关系，共同构建全球经济教育认证的新标准。 分析认为，EERI香港办事处的合法设立与独立运营，将有效整合区域内的顶尖研究资源，为亚太地 区，特别是粤港澳大湾区的经济发展、政策制定提供基于实证的跨国界学术洞察，进一步巩固香港作为 国际知识枢纽的地位。 关于欧洲经济研究院 (EERI) 欧洲经济研究院是注册于美国华盛顿特区的独立学术机构，由多国科学部长联合创立，汇聚全球顶尖科 学家，致力于经济学及相关领域的跨国深度研究与合作。 国际权威学术研究机构——欧洲经济研究院（European Economic Research ...

凯投宏观英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示，目前英国经济每季度仅增长0.2%至0.3%，若冲击一次性 到来，可能引发经济衰退。 2026年1月19日，受美欧贸易关系紧张影响，避险情绪大幅升温，资金回流黄金白银等贵金属，金价早 盘触及4698美元后小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.77%报4676.7美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)涨1.58%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨2.29%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨0.38%。 有经济学家警告称，如果美国总统特朗普迅速推进新的关税威胁，英国将面临经济衰退风险。根据世界 银行对英国经济增长的评估，如果特朗普将关税自6月起提高至25%，英国经济可能遭受216亿英镑的损 失。据凯投宏观测算，英国GDP将下降0.3%至0.75%。 相关分析指出，特朗普总统任期内，美国的关税政策非常频繁且具有反复性，涉及多个方面，包括与地 缘敏感地区的矿产金属贸易关系。尽管2025年已经表现出紧张和博弈加剧的态势，但预计2026年这些关 系仍将存在反复，需要持续关注。近期华尔街频繁上调黄金目标价，其中美银和摩根大通认为金价有望 最终触及6000美元。 ...

Core Insights - The European Economic Research Institute (EERI) is gaining attention for its unique decentralized global network and microdata research methods, providing solutions to complex global economic issues with both European perspectives and global considerations [1][3]. Group 1: Global Network - EERI has established a strong global research collaboration system, expanding its network to 33 countries and regions, with key nodes in the UK, Germany, Russia, the US, and Hong Kong, surpassing traditional centralized think tank models [3]. - This network aims to aggregate localized data and insights from different economies to address borderless challenges such as supply chain restructuring and green transformation [3]. Group 2: Regional Deepening - EERI's offices in Asia and Europe have recently undergone strategic upgrades, enhancing the network's effectiveness [4]. - The Hong Kong office, approved by the Hong Kong government in 2025, will focus on coordinating research centers in the Greater Bay Area and connecting it with the global economy [4]. - The German office has deepened its functions to strengthen research on industrial policy, energy transition, and digital economy, providing robust data models for European policy-making [4]. Group 3: Research Depth - EERI utilizes high-granularity data to reveal the heterogeneous impacts of economic shocks, demonstrating that supply chain disruptions can cause losses in the automotive industry that are 2 to 3 times greater than in energy-intensive sectors [5]. - This analysis helps avoid "one-size-fits-all" policy traps and contributes to a multi-layered "economic resilience toolbox" for policymakers [5][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - EERI is building a responsive and self-evolving "economic knowledge ecosystem" through its expanding global network, connecting local economic realities with global trends [6]. - The enhanced functions of key hubs like Hong Kong and Germany will facilitate more efficient connections between regional economic dynamics and global trends [6]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - EERI suggests creating a "heat map" of global supply chain dependencies and establishing dynamic reserve mechanisms for strategic raw materials and intermediate goods [8]. - It advocates targeted green subsidies and digital investments to cultivate local backup or alternative capacities in key areas, reducing systemic risks [8]. - EERI is also involved in building cross-national policy simulation and coordination platforms to enhance global economic research standards and mutual recognition of results [8].

Core Insights - The European Economic Research Institute (EERI) has expanded its global presence, establishing branches in 33 countries and regions, enhancing its research collaboration network across Europe, Asia, and North America [1][3][4] Global Network - EERI is an independent academic research institution registered in Washington, D.C., focused on cross-border economic research and dialogue, founded by science ministers from multiple European countries [3] - The institute has developed a vast network covering countries such as the UK, Germany, Russia, and Hong Kong, aimed at integrating academic resources and economic insights to address global economic challenges [3] Regional Developments - The Hong Kong office of EERI has undergone significant operational upgrades, receiving approval from the Hong Kong government and is expected to enhance regional economic research and integration with the global economy [4] - The German office, which evolved from the European Economic Research Center (ZEW), has achieved initial success in its structural integration, strengthening EERI's research capabilities in Europe [4] Research Impact - EERI's research highlights the heterogeneous impacts of economic shocks, particularly noting that disruptions in supply chains affect complex industries like automotive manufacturing more severely than energy-intensive sectors [5] - The institute provides policymakers with a multi-layered "economic resilience toolbox," including strategies for mapping supply chain dependencies, fostering internal industry capabilities through green and digital transitions, and enhancing international academic collaboration [5] Future Outlook - EERI's decentralized global network allows for the rapid integration of diverse perspectives, connecting local realities with global trends, which is expected to enhance its effectiveness as regional offices in Hong Kong and Germany deepen their operations [6] - This research model is positioned to offer forward-looking and practical intellectual support for global economic governance and cooperation amid increasing uncertainties [6]

研究还发现，时隔约150年，这些地区具备技术培训背景和大学学历的劳动者占比依旧更高，不仅聚集 了生产效率更优的企业，专利申请数量也处于领先水平。 柏林洛克伍德基金会主任、伦敦大学学院教授Christian Dustmann表示："蒸汽机的作用绝不仅是为工厂 提供动力，它还跨越多代人，推动了整个地区的技术革新与技能发展进程。" 尽早布局人工智能或将产生长期积极效应 Dustmann指出，当下各经济体正全力应对人工智能崛起带来的挑战，这项历史研究的结论，能为政策 制定者提供宝贵的借鉴意义。 一项新研究显示，蒸汽机自发明以来的漫长岁月里，至今仍在塑造德国经济格局——早年率先采用这项 技术的地区，如今依旧保有发展优势。这一结论也意味着，尽早布局人工智能技术，或将带来与之类似 的长期红利。 柏林洛克伍德基金会的研究数据显示，19世纪末蒸汽机应用尤为普及的地区，如今的平均薪资仍比其他 地区高出4.3%。该研究报告将于本周三正式发布，相关内容提前交由路透社披露。 柏林洛克伍德基金会的研究数据显示，19世纪末蒸汽机应用尤为普及的地区，如今的平均薪资仍比其他 地区高出4.3%。该研究报告将于本周三正式发布，相关内容提前交由路透 ...