小摩闭门会-大宗商品 2026 展望,贵金属和工业金属的结构 性牛市,目标价黄金 5000 铜 1210020260102 摘要 Q&A 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 构性看涨交易。展望 2026年,我们维持多年看涨的观点,预计 2026年黄金目标 价为 5,000 美元,2027和2028年的目标价为6,000美元。从我们给出看涨评级 时的 1,700 美元算起,这显然是大幅上涨。尽管当前涨势迅猛、价格高企,但我 们仍坚信 2026年黄金需求将保持强劲。央行是过去几年金价上涨的主要推动力 之一,我们预计 2026年央行将继续增持黄金,但规模会缩减至约 750-760 吨, 远低于前几年的水平。然而,由于金价上涨,央行只需增持少量黄金即可提高其 储备占比。此外,结合可能进一步降息、投资者对美国财政可持续性的担忧、通 胀粘性以及科技股估值相对过高等因素,对美联储独立性的质疑和政策不确定性, 将继续为投资者需求增长创造空间。 对于印度而言,创纪录的黄金价格无疑会 产生广泛且多维度的影响。印度几乎所有黄金都依赖进口,高金价必然会扩大其 经常账户赤字,从而给卢比带来压力。为了缓解这一间题, ...

沙特阿拉伯第三季度经常账户赤字 82.29 亿美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

阿根廷前10月服务贸易逆差创历史新高 阿根廷《金融界报》12月2日报道，据阿央行外汇数据显示，今年前10月，阿 服务贸易赤字升至96.44亿美元，同比暴增152%，几乎追平2024全年，预计年 底将突破108亿美元，超2017年与2022年旧纪录创历史新高；10月份，阿服务 贸易逆差达10.08亿美元，延续前几月高逆差态势，主要由信用卡境外消费+旅 游机票（净流出6.25亿）、数字服务及其他服务（4.22亿）、货运保险（2.07 亿）三大"出血点"构成。报道称，叠加阿政府初级账户10月再度赤字9.16亿美 元，阿能源贸易顺差优势将被完全抵消，政府经常账户恐重返赤字，外汇储备 将面临更大挑战。 （原标题：阿根廷前10月服务贸易逆差创历史新高） ...

新华财经北京12月9日电凯投宏观（Capital Economics）最新报告指出，印度经济在2025年实现7.5%的 强劲增长后，2026年和2027年增速可能放缓至6.5%，但仍将显著高于全球其他主要经济体平均水平。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告分析称，增速放缓的部分原因在于美国征收高关税带来的外部压力。不过，经济学家同时指出，相 关关税税率未来存在下调可能，形势亦可能迅速变化。为应对潜在冲击，印度决策层已采取政策措施， 以缓冲高关税对整体经济的影响。 凯投宏观强调，当前印度经常账户赤字处于可持续水平，家庭消费与公共投资构成经济增长的两大关键 支柱。基于现有增长路径，印度有望在2027年超越日本，成为按名义GDP计算的世界第四大经济体。 ...

Core Insights - The Indian Rupee has depreciated to a historic low against the US Dollar, reaching 89.78 Rupees per Dollar, despite optimistic GDP growth data [2][3] - The depreciation is attributed to a combination of high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian exports and a lack of favorable trade agreements, leading to a significant outflow of foreign investment from the Indian market [3][5] Economic Performance - India recorded its strongest economic growth in six quarters, yet the Rupee continues to weaken, indicating a disconnect between economic performance and currency stability [1][2] - The Indian economy faces challenges due to high tariffs on exports, particularly in the context of US-India trade relations, which have worsened since July [3][5] Currency Trends - The Rupee has experienced its most severe monthly decline since 2022, driven by external pressures and domestic economic concerns [3] - The Reserve Bank of India has reportedly sold over $30 billion in foreign exchange assets to stabilize the Rupee, but the currency continues to face downward pressure [4] Foreign Investment - Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly $16.3 billion from the Indian stock market this year, approaching record outflow levels from 2022, exacerbating the Rupee's depreciation [3][5] - The lack of confidence in India's economic outlook and the high tariffs have led to a significant reduction in foreign investment, impacting the overall market sentiment [5] Trade Relations - The high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods have created a challenging environment for Indian exporters, particularly those reliant on the US market [3][5] - The ongoing trade tensions and lack of agreements with the US have raised concerns about India's international balance of payments and economic performance [5][6] Comparative Analysis - The Indian Rupee's performance is notably weaker compared to other emerging market currencies, as many Southeast Asian countries face less tariff pressure from the US [6] - The persistent current account deficit in India, where imports exceed exports, further diminishes demand for the Rupee compared to countries with current account surpluses [6]

印度卢比今年已多次测试历史低点，一些分析师警告称，如果与美国的关键贸易协议未能很快实现，卢 比兑美元汇率可能会跌破90这一重要的心理关口。由于与华盛顿达成旨在降低亚洲最严厉关税之一的贸 易协定被推迟，市场情绪受到打击，卢比兑美元周二创下89.8537的历史新低。在离岸市场，卢比进一 步跌至90.05。印度仍然是尚未与美国签署贸易协定的主要经济体之一，尽管官员们对很快达成协议表 示乐观。协议的拖延导致该国九月季度经常账户赤字扩大，进一步增加了卢比的压力。法国 农业信贷 银行外汇策略师David Forrester表示，目前，印度央行可能允许卢比进一步小幅走弱，以在美国征税的 背景下提高出口竞争力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Australia's current account deficit reached approximately AUD 16.646 billion in Q3 2025, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of deficit, which was significantly higher than market expectations of AUD 13 billion [1]. Group 1: Current Account and Trade Balance - The current account deficit for Q2 2025 was revised up to approximately AUD 16.153 billion, with Q3 deficit increasing by about AUD 4.93 billion compared to Q2 [1]. - The goods and services trade surplus decreased from approximately AUD 2.779 billion in Q2 to about AUD 2.489 billion in Q3 [1]. - The net primary income deficit slightly decreased from approximately AUD 18.989 billion in Q2 to about AUD 18.690 billion in Q3 [1]. Group 2: Trade Conditions and Price Dynamics - Australia's trade conditions improved for the first time this year, with the ratio of export prices to import prices rising from 95.2 to 95.5 [1]. - The decline in export prices by 0.1% was offset by a larger decline in import prices of 0.4%, influenced by a stronger Australian dollar [1]. - Commodity price increases partially mitigated the downward pressure on export prices [1]. Group 3: Import Dynamics - Fuel and lubricants led the growth in goods imports during Q3, with refined fuel imports reflecting Australia's reliance on overseas diesel and other oil products [2]. - The actual goods and services trade surplus, adjusted for seasonal factors, was AUD 10.15 billion, down from the revised AUD 10.763 billion in the previous quarter, which is expected to negatively impact Q3 GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points [2]. Group 4: Upcoming Data Releases - The Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to release Q3 GDP data on December 3 and external trade data on December 4 [3].

每经AI快讯，11月20日消息，希腊1-9月经常账户赤字达70亿欧元，希腊2025年预算基本盈余目标设定 为GDP的3.7%。 ...

Core Insights - India's goods trade deficit reached a record high of $41.7 billion in October, driven by a surge in gold imports and the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1][2] Trade Deficit and Imports - The trade deficit significantly exceeded Reuters poll estimates of $28.8 billion and surpassed the previous record of $37.8 billion set in November 2024 [2] - Gold imports in October amounted to $14.7 billion, marking an increase of nearly 200% compared to the same month last year, with consumers estimated to have spent $11 billion during the five-day festival period [2] Exports and Tariff Impact - Exports to the U.S. declined for the second consecutive month, falling 8.5% year-on-year in October to $6.3 billion due to the 50% tariffs implemented at the end of August [3] - Despite the decline, the U.S. remained the largest export destination for India, with shipments worth $52 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year [3] - Key exports such as gems and jewelry fell by 29.5% to $2.3 billion, while engineering goods decreased by 16.7% to $9.4 billion [4] Future Outlook - Merchandise imports are expected to decrease in November and December 2025 as gold imports decline post-festival season, alongside a potential increase in exports [5] - India's current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.4-2.5% of GDP in the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, with a CAD to GDP ratio of around 1.2% for fiscal year 2026 if U.S. tariffs remain in place [6] Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have yet to yield a deal, although both sides are softening their positions, with hints from U.S. President Trump about potential tariff reductions [7] - India has increased oil and gas purchases from the U.S. to address the trade surplus and is expected to buy agricultural products as well [7]

Core Insights - The Central Bank of Russia estimates that the monthly trade surplus will decrease by $1.2 billion year-on-year, totaling $7.5 billion by the end of August 2025 [1] - Compared to July 2025, the trade surplus has decreased by $5.2 billion, primarily due to a decline in export costs [1] - The services trade deficit has expanded to $6 billion in August due to a contraction in service exports [1] - The current account deficit for August 2025 stands at $900 million, a shift from a surplus of $1.2 billion in July 2025 [1] - For the period from January to August 2025, the merchandise trade surplus is $75.5 billion, down from $88.7 billion in the same period last year [1]