华尔街大型金融机构正在快速进军预测市场领域，招聘专业交易员以捕捉体育赛事和政治选举等事件合 约之间的套利机会。这一新兴市场在2024年美国总统大选期间交易量激增，目前已演变为以体育合约为 主的博 彩平台。 据英国《金融时报》周四报道，包括DRW、Susquehanna和Tyr Capital在内的多家知名交易公司正在 组建专门的预测市场交易团队。DRW上周发布招聘广告，寻找基础年薪最高可达20万美元的交易员， 负责在Polymarket和Kalshi等平台上"实时监控和交易活跃市场"。 特朗普政府对市场监管采取宽松态度，为华尔街机构进入这一领域提供了契机。部分机构已与预测平台 建立合作关系，在特定合约中提供做市和流动性服务。 预测市场的交易量从2024年初的每月不足1亿美元飙升至2025年12月的超过80亿美元，这一爆发式增长 吸引了传统金融机构的关注。尽管流动性仍远低于传统资产类别，但套利机会和对冲潜力正推动专业交 易者加速入场。 华尔街巨头组建专门交易团队 多家顶级交易公司正在积极扩充预测市场业务。期权交易巨头Susquehanna正在招聘交易员，要求能 够"检测不正确的公允价值"，识别预测市场上的"异常 ...

Core Insights - The financial services sector is the second-largest in the S&P 500 and is performing decently this year, providing diversification for portfolios heavily invested in mega-cap growth stocks [1] - The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Financials ETF (RSPF), valued at $308.54 million, includes top bank stocks such as U.S. Bancorp, M&T Bank, and PNC Financial Services Group [1][2] Company Insights - U.S. Bancorp is recognized as the largest non-global systemically important bank in the U.S. and has shown strong profitability and operational efficiency over the past 15 years [2] - RSPF's largest holding is Robinhood Markets, which is significantly contributing to event contracts volume and may pursue acquisitions in prediction markets [4] - Interactive Brokers, the second-largest component of RSPF, focuses on event contracts related to economic data, avoiding sports contracts to mitigate regulatory scrutiny [5] Market Trends - RSPF is gaining exposure in the prediction markets space, which is considered an underappreciated factor in the current investment environment [3] - CME Group, a member firm of RSPF, is collaborating with FanDuel on event contracts, while Intercontinental Exchange has invested $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing it between $9 billion and $10 billion [6] - Coinbase Global, another holding in RSPF, is also exploring opportunities in prediction markets [7]

Core Insights - Robinhood has reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, driven by a surge in trading activities beyond traditional stocks, particularly in the emerging prediction markets [1][2] - The company's stock price has soared approximately 450% since the 2024 election, reflecting a broader trend of speculative trading in the market [1][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Robinhood's Q3 revenue doubled to a record $1.27 billion, with net profit reaching $556 million, more than three times that of the same period last year [1] - Nearly 90% of trading revenue comes from options and cryptocurrency, with about $25 million generated from the new prediction market platform [1][2] Group 2: Prediction Market Growth - The prediction market segment is rapidly becoming a key part of Robinhood's diversification strategy, with over 4 billion event contracts traded cumulatively [2] - The types of events available for trading have expanded from sports and finance to include politics, entertainment, and technology [2] Group 3: Market Environment - The rise of Robinhood is closely linked to the current market environment, characterized by a supportive regulatory framework under the Trump administration [3] - Policies favoring cryptocurrency and a general atmosphere of relaxed regulation have fueled speculative trading activities [3][4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Despite strong performance, there are growing concerns about the sustainability of Robinhood's growth, with a high price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 62, significantly above the industry average [5] - Analysts express skepticism about whether the current speculative growth can be maintained, highlighting the potential for a market correction [5]

Group 1 - Charles Schwab, a billionaire and founder of Charles Schwab Corporation, has invested significantly in the prediction market startup Kalshi, which has seen its valuation rise to $2 billion as of June 2023 [1] - Kalshi's user base expanded tenfold after receiving regulatory approval to offer presidential election contracts, with over 2 million users betting more than $1 billion by election night [5][6] - The prediction market industry is attracting investments from numerous billionaires, including Thomas Peterffy and Jeff Yass, who see potential in using probability thinking for future events [2][6] Group 2 - Kalshi's revenue model is based on traditional commission fees for each contract traded, with a monthly trading volume of approximately $1 billion [8][9] - The company has established partnerships with major platforms like Robinhood, enhancing its liquidity and market presence [9][10] - The potential market size for prediction markets is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions, with significant growth opportunities anticipated [10] Group 3 - Kalshi's main competitor, Polymarket, has also attracted high-profile investments and is preparing for new funding rounds, with its valuation expected to reach $9 billion [3][12] - The prediction market sector is becoming a cultural focal point, with various betting opportunities emerging around significant events [5] - Regulatory challenges remain, as Kalshi faces lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports betting contracts, which are a major part of its business [12]