世纪超级工程雅江水电投资机会梳理联合电话会 20250721 参考三峡水电站，雅鲁藏布江水电站建成后预计每年可替代约 1 亿吨标准煤， 并减少约 3 亿吨二氧化碳排放，对绿色环保起到重大作用。 摘要 雅鲁藏布江水电站选址于拐弯处，集中了约 90%的水能资源，天然落差 显著，具备水能利用优势。建成后预计每年可替代 1 亿吨标准煤，减少 3 亿吨二氧化碳排放，对环保贡献重大。 墨脱工程预计 10 年爆破期内炸药需求量达几十到百万吨，民爆相关订 单金额可能达 500 亿元。易普力、高争民爆、保利联合、壶化股份、广 东宏大等公司将直接受益。 雅鲁藏布江下游总装机容量 60 吉瓦，特高压设备市场空间约 600 亿元。 发电设备端口净利润约 48 亿元，东方电气和哈尔滨电器预计各占 50% 市场份额。 高压电器设备整体装机容量约 1.5 亿千瓦，高压变压器市场空间约 75 亿元，高压组合电器市场空间约 112 亿元。特高压直流与交流总规模约 370 亿。 GIL 设备适用于墨脱水电站等场景，总回路预计超过 2000 公里，总市 场规模在 600 亿至 700 亿之间。各类输配电设备合计市场规模达 1,200 亿左右，对应 ...

11.33%！7月22日午盘，雅下水电概念股继续狂奔！相关的工程机械大涨6.22%、民爆概念涨5.32%、西藏概念上涨3.52%…… 制图：佘诗婕 7月21日，雅下水电概念横空出世，当日收盘，概念指数猛涨12.52！相关概念的工程机械狂涨9%，建筑材料上涨5.13%，民爆上涨幅度高达 8.51%！而在雅下水电概念带动下，A股涨停个股接近130家，创近期新高，其中大部分属于与雅下水电概念相关的个股，比如西藏天路、高争民 爆、海螺水泥、五新隧装、中国电建、基康技术、西宁特钢等等。 日前，国家宣布耗资1.2万亿元的雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工，A股由此掀起了资金齐聚雅下水电概念的盛景，沪、深、创三大指数也由此创 出了阶段性新高。 雅鲁藏布江下游（通常指墨脱河段）巨型水电开发项目，这是一个战略意义更深远的国家级超级工程。它的装机容量可能超过8000万千瓦，是 三峡的三倍，涉及国家能源安全、"双碳"目标实现、西部大开发、边疆地区经济发展，以及对南亚地缘政治潜在影响力等许多方面。 笔者在欣喜看到股民在追逐雅下水电概念股的同时，也希望他们保持理性，毕竟盈亏同源，从哪里赚来的钱，可能会从哪里赔去。每当有大概 念炒作，就会有人获 ...

星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 11.33%！7月22日午盘，雅下水电概念股继续狂奔！相关的 工程机械大涨 6.22% 、民爆概念涨 5.32% 、西藏概念上涨3.52% …… 制图：佘诗婕 7月21日，雅下水电概念横空出世，当日收盘，概念指数猛涨12.52！相关概念的 工程机械狂涨 9% ，建筑材料上涨5.13% ，民爆上涨幅度高达8.51% ！ 而在 雅下水电概念带动下，A股涨停个 股接近130家，创近期新高，其中大部分属于与雅下水电概念相关的个股，比如西藏天路、高争民 爆、海螺水泥、五新隧装、中国电建、基康技术、西宁特钢等等。 日前，国家宣布耗资1.2万亿元的雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工，A股由此掀起了资金齐聚雅下水电 概念的盛景，沪、深、创三大指数也由此创出了阶段性新高。 雅鲁藏布江下游（通常指墨脱河段）巨型水电开发项目，这是一个战略意义更深远的国家级超级工 程。它的装机容量可能超过8000万千瓦，是三峡的三倍，涉及国家能源安全、"双碳"目标实现、 西部大开发、边疆地区经济发展，以及对南亚地缘政治潜在影响力等许多方面。 雅下水电概念一出便带着"超级工程"光环， 其规模和技术难度（高海拔、复杂 ...

Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five cascade power stations [1] - The project is expected to generate an annual electricity output of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Project [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - The project is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery due to its large scale and the challenging geographical conditions, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2] - Major suppliers of hydropower equipment in China include Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, with Dongfang Electric achieving a 100% localization rate for 1 million kilowatt generator sets [2] - Central state-owned enterprises involved in hydropower engineering design and construction, such as China Power Construction Corporation and China Energy Engineering Corporation, are expected to be the first beneficiaries of the project [2] Group 3: Related Sectors - The high-altitude and complex geological conditions of the project will drive the demand for high-performance engineering machinery, favoring industry leaders [2][3] - The cement sector is likely to experience a new wave of growth due to the project, with companies like Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement dominating the local market [3] - The commencement of the project is expected to significantly increase the demand for explosives in Tibet, benefiting companies with production capacity and business layout in the region, such as Gaozheng Minbao and Yipuli [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [12] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the long-term impact of hydropower on the grid, particularly focusing on GIL corridors, hydropower station automation, and external transmission channels [3] - The construction of the Yaxia hydropower project is expected to replicate the successful model of large-scale wind power bases in the northwest, with a target of over 120 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity by 2030 [3] - The GIL corridor is anticipated to create significant investment opportunities, with an estimated investment of 300 billion for 2000 km of transmission lines [3] - Automation in hydropower stations is expected to enhance grid stability and efficiency, benefiting companies that provide control and monitoring equipment [3][4] - The planning capacity of the Motuo hydropower station is projected to exceed 70 GW, with a focus on supporting external transmission channels [4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the recent initiation of the Yaxia hydropower project and its implications for the southwestern clean energy base construction [3] - It emphasizes the expected growth in the GIL corridor and the automation of hydropower stations, which will drive demand for related equipment [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in GIL corridors, such as Pinggao Electric, China West Electric, and Changgao Electric, as well as those in hydropower station automation like Guodian NARI and Huazi Technology [5]

以来我们看到国内的特高压项目核准的节奏整体是比较慢的但是在六月的下旬一周之内接连核准了两条特高压节奏的项目那么根据今年市场所预期的一个核准计划我们估计下半年整体的这个核准的节奏会有一个很明显的加快那么在上周的周报当中我们也用标题来提示大家注意一下就关注一下下半年这个特高压核准提速的这样一个投资机会那么相关的电力设备的股票其实过去一段时间里面也有一些比较充分的调整 那么在当前这个位置上我们觉得伴随下半年特高压核准提速相关股票可能是一个比较好的分地布局的这样一个机会那么今天我们就有请我们电力设备的分析师王炳轩带着PPT给大家汇报一下当前时间点我们对于特高压这个主线的一些研究结论和后续的一些投资建议接下去我就把时间交给炳轩 最后的话还会再总结和提示一下下半年重要的一些时间节点的把握以及再补充说明一些风险项今天主要想汇报的内容 那么我们首先花一分钟时间对整个这个这个淘宝板块或者我们电网板块的背景做些补充方便各位领导对整体情况有些把握那么好我们以24年为例24年的话实际上我们测算整个国内的电网设备企业它所面临的市场规模有多大呢有大概18000亿那么同比增速比较快13%左右这里面我们可以拆分成网内网外海外的需求那么网内就 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese power grid infrastructure investment** and the **high voltage transmission sector**. The focus is on the performance and trends in the power equipment market, including bidding results and export data. Key Points and Arguments Power Grid Investment - From January to April, China's power grid investment reached **140.8 billion yuan**, reflecting a **14.6% year-on-year increase**. However, April's growth showed a slight decline compared to earlier months, where the growth rate was over **20%** [1] - The investment is expected to continue to rise throughout the year due to substantial plans from **State Grid** and **Southern Grid** [1] High Voltage Transmission - The **State Grid** has completed two batches of high voltage equipment bidding this year, totaling **1.48 billion yuan**, which is lower than last year's **1.7 billion yuan** for the same period [2] - The bidding for high voltage line materials has surged to **17.87 billion yuan**, setting a historical high, with the first batch at **7.74 billion yuan** and the second at **10.13 billion yuan** [2] Metering Equipment - The first batch of P4 metering equipment bidding totaled **7.5 billion yuan**, a **43.63% decrease** year-on-year. The A-grade meters saw a **48% drop** in bidding amounts [3][4] - The decline in bidding amounts is attributed to a significant drop in prices as manufacturers attempt to clear inventory [5] Digitalization and AI - The digitalization bidding reached **1.5 billion yuan**, a **16% increase** year-on-year, with digital equipment seeing a **13% increase** [7] - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow, with a focus on the development of the **Electricity Trading Platform 3.0** [9] Export Performance - From January to April, transformer exports reached **4.58 billion yuan**, a **33.65% increase** year-on-year, with liquid transformers showing the highest growth [15][16] - The export of electric meters also increased, with April's export amount reaching **980 million yuan**, a **34% year-on-year increase** [16] - High voltage switchgear exports reached **8.3 billion yuan**, reflecting a **44% increase** [17] Domestic and International Demand - Domestic demand remains strong despite price pressures, with expectations of continued growth in the second half of the year due to ongoing high voltage projects [24] - The relationship with the EU is stable, with China becoming the largest importer of transformers in the EU, surpassing Turkey [22] Future Outlook - The upcoming months are expected to see more high voltage projects initiated, leading to increased demand for related equipment and orders [24] - The overall industry is anticipated to face manageable pressure with significant growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [23] Additional Important Insights - The digitalization efforts are being hampered by progress delays, but future demand for AI in the power sector is expected to remain robust [9] - The competitive pricing environment is likely to improve as new bidding cycles for meters are anticipated, which will shift focus from older models to newer ones [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the acceleration of ultra-high voltage (UHV) approvals and construction will likely enhance the market share of leading companies in the sector under the collective procurement model for distribution networks [1] Group 1: Investment and Construction Trends - In the first five months of this year, total investment in China's power grid reached 204 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [1] - The strong demand for main network bidding is evident, with the bidding amount for the first three batches in 2025 reaching 54.064 billion yuan, an increase of 24.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Project Approvals and Market Dynamics - Recently, two ultra-high voltage direct current lines have been approved, with multiple projects expected to be operational within the year [1] - The third equipment bidding announcement has already been published, indicating a faster pace of approvals and construction [1] Group 3: Future Performance Expectations - Companies in the sector are expected to have support from non-UHV main network orders, while the acceleration of UHV construction will further enhance their market share under the collective procurement model [1] - It is anticipated that the performance of these companies will maintain relatively rapid year-on-year growth in 2025-2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the power grid and industrial control sectors is expected to continue in the first half of 2025, with potential opportunities for performance and valuation recovery in the second half of the year [1] Power Grid Sector - Domestic power grid investment showed strong growth in the first five months of 2025, with a total investment of 204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [5] - The approval pace for ultra-high voltage projects is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with significant projects already approved [7] - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment remains strong, with a projected annual growth rate of around 10% for power grid investment from 2024 to 2026 [10] - The first half of 2025 saw a robust demand for primary network investments, with a notable increase in bidding amounts for key equipment [10] Industrial Control Sector - The industrial control market has shown signs of recovery, with the OEM market experiencing a 3.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first positive growth in three years [24] - The demand for new technologies, particularly in automation and robotics, is expected to enhance profitability and valuation flexibility for industrial control companies [3] - The overall capital expenditure momentum remains slightly subdued, but a narrow fluctuation in the new cycle is anticipated [18] Investment Themes - Focus on new productive forces, including AIDC and humanoid robots, which are expected to bring significant valuation elasticity [3] - The revival of nuclear energy is highlighted, with a focus on nuclear power equipment and small modular reactors (SMR) as key investment areas [48] - The overseas market for power grid investment is projected to maintain high growth, driven by energy transition and grid upgrades, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase expected in 2024 [4] Nuclear Energy Sector - The global nuclear power industry is experiencing a strategic revival, with significant investments and approvals in various countries, including China and the U.S. [49] - The demand for nuclear energy is increasing due to the need for stable, low-carbon baseload power, with a focus on SMR and controlled nuclear fusion technologies [62] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see a re-evaluation of its investment value as countries prioritize energy security and decarbonization [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment industry [4] Core Insights - The dual carbon strategy emphasizes the coexistence of highly clean power generation and highly electrified power consumption, with the grid serving as a crucial link between the two [4][7] - The development of ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology is essential for achieving carbon neutrality, but progress has been slower than expected [4][8] - The distribution network is critical for renewable energy consumption, yet investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has fallen short of expectations [4][39] Summary by Sections Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - UHV is a key component of the dual carbon strategy, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan for over 30,000 kilometers of lines and a capacity of 340 million kilovolt-amperes [8] - The actual progress of UHV projects has been below expectations, with only eight projects likely to be completed by 2025 [16][18] - The shift towards flexible direct current technology is noted, as it allows for higher proportions of renewable energy to be transmitted [22][24] Distribution Network - The distribution network's role has evolved significantly post-dual carbon strategy, requiring upgrades to accommodate distributed energy resources [39][40] - Despite a consensus on the need for increased investment in the distribution network, actual investment levels have been lower than anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [47] - The rapid growth of distributed solar power has led to challenges in the capacity of the distribution network, necessitating further enhancements [50]