电力设备系列：核心资产视角看出海公司的投资价值 20250909 摘要 全球电力基建投资增速显著，2021-2024 年复合增速约为 12.7%，主 要由新能源发电成本结构和 AI、电动汽车发展驱动用电量增长支撑。 电网投资增速滞后于电源建设，2021-2024 年全球电网投资复合增速 约为 6.7%，审批延误和高可靠性要求是主要原因，但也为国内企业出 海提供了时间窗口。 电力设备行业面临供给侧挑战，包括 2015-2020 年基建收缩和疫情导 致的原材料价格上涨，高压设备产能释放不及预期，国内企业迎来出海 机遇。 国内企业在海外市场具备市占率提升空间、供应链成本和服务质量优势， 高压设备短缺加速了国内企业进入门槛的突破。 中国头部主设备企业应继续开拓老客户的新产品类别和新市场，凭借供 应链成本和服务优势广泛布局，并加强本地化运营能力巩固市场地位。 市场对高压设备公司估值存在隐忧，PEG 估值偏贵，但海外高压设备股 持续上涨和外资大量买入表明深度调整可能性较低。 电表行业受国内业务和市场周期影响经历调整，但头部企业全球化能力 突出，是良好配置机会，如三星医疗、海兴电力等。 Q&A 当前全球电力基础设施投资的主 ...

Performance - The company reported a revenue of 5.696 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 666 million yuan, an increase of 24.59% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 661 million yuan, up 24.24% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.185 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 306 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.88% year-on-year [1] - The high-voltage segment maintained a stable revenue share, with overall gross margin improving to 24.72%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [1] Segment Performance - Revenue from the high-voltage segment reached 3.264 billion yuan, growing by 7.58% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.79%, up by 2.20 percentage points [1] - The distribution network segment generated 1.596 billion yuan in revenue, increasing by 14.57% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.32%, down by 0.53 percentage points [1] - The international segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 167 million yuan, up 288.37% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 9.68%, an increase of 63.64 percentage points [1] - The operation and maintenance segment contributed 634 million yuan in revenue, growing by 20.08% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.32%, down by 1.26 percentage points [1] Investment Outlook - Given the acceleration in ultra-high voltage and main network construction, the company is positioned as a leading player in the ultra-high voltage sector, with expected continuous growth in performance [2] - Projected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.395 billion yuan, 1.618 billion yuan, and 1.844 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational efficiency and market demand [1][2][4]. Revenue Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [1]. - The high voltage segment generated revenue of 3.264 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year; the medium and low voltage and distribution network segment brought in 1.596 billion yuan, up 14.6%; the operation and maintenance services and other revenues totaled 634 million yuan, up 20.1%; and international business revenue reached 167 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 284.5% [2]. Profitability Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 660 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.6% [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 24.72%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year; however, the gross margin for Q2 2025 was 21.56%, showing a decline of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year and 7.18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Cost and Expense Summary - The total expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 9.98%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D expenses rising significantly [3][4]. - In Q2 2025, the total expense ratio was 9.41%, up 0.91 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Inventory and Future Outlook - As of the end of Q2 2025, inventory stood at 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.6% [4]. - Contract liabilities reached 1.715 billion yuan, up 40.0% year-on-year and 28.5% quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong growth potential [4]. - The ongoing development of ultra-high voltage projects and the Yashan hydropower project is expected to provide continuous growth for the company, with a projected net profit of 1.34 billion yuan for 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 16 times [4].