Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Supor (002032) with a target price of 54.1 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - Supor's Q3 2025 revenue reached 5.42 billion CNY, showing a year-over-year decline of 2.3%, primarily due to pressure on overseas sales, while domestic sales remained stable [8]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 23.9%, unchanged from the previous year, indicating resilience in maintaining profitability despite competitive pressures [8]. - The net profit margin decreased to 7.9%, down 1.0 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to increased marketing expenses [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 22,427 million CNY - 2025E: 23,127 million CNY (growth of 3.1%) - 2026E: 24,275 million CNY (growth of 5.0%) - 2027E: 26,181 million CNY (growth of 7.9%) [4][9] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 2,244 million CNY - 2025E: 2,239 million CNY (decline of 0.3%) - 2026E: 2,389 million CNY (growth of 6.7%) - 2027E: 2,637 million CNY (growth of 10.4%) [4][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 2.80 CNY - 2025E: 2.79 CNY - 2026E: 2.98 CNY - 2027E: 3.29 CNY [4][9] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E: 17 times - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2025E: 6.0 times [4][9] Market Performance - The report highlights that Supor's domestic sales of key products such as woks and pressure cookers showed positive growth, with sales increasing by 11.1% and 0.5% respectively in Q3 2025 [8]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the small home appliance sector, benefiting from effective channel transformations and continuous product innovation [8].

Core Viewpoint - Supor's operating performance shows signs of fatigue, with revenue and net profit growth slowing down significantly in recent years [1][3][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Supor achieved revenue of 22.427 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.244 billion yuan, up 2.97% year-on-year [1][3]. - From 2019 to 2024, Supor's revenue and net profit grew by 13.29% and 16.88% respectively, indicating a slowdown in growth rates [1][3]. - Quarterly data for 2024 shows stable revenue but a decline in net profit in Q4, with revenue of 5.915 billion yuan and net profit of 0.812 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Position - Supor claims to hold the number one market share in domestic cookware, with continuous growth in online market share for cookware and leading positions in small kitchen appliances [5][6]. - In 2024, sales to the major shareholder amounted to 7.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.51%, accounting for 31.42% of total revenue [5]. Dividend Policy - Supor has a high cash dividend payout, distributing 2.239 billion yuan in 2024, which is 99.74% of its net profit [1][10]. - Over the past three years, the total dividends paid amount to 7.863 billion yuan, while the total net profit during the same period was 6.492 billion yuan [1][10]. Marketing and R&D - Supor's marketing expenses have been increasing, with 2024 marketing costs reaching 1.691 billion yuan, which is 77.48% of total sales expenses [7]. - In contrast, R&D expenses have remained relatively low, with 2024 R&D spending at 0.470 billion yuan, indicating a heavy reliance on marketing over product development [7]. Quality Issues - Supor has faced multiple complaints regarding product quality, including issues with electric cookers and cookware, which may impact brand reputation [8][9].