CRIC 克而瑞·研究中心 中国房地产 研报 热销项目|6 月新规项目和高改盘 集中入市支撑去化率攀升 2025 年 克而瑞观点 文/俞倩倩 6月整体楼市延续止跌企稳的弱复苏走势,楼市新房成交微降,而项目去化率环比持增:6月平 均开盘去化率为 41%,环比上升 3pcts,同比上升 11pcts,与 2023年高峰基本持平。充意当前热销 楼盘有什么共性特征?7月又能否延续市场热度稳步回升的态势呢? 一、6 月 30 城平均去化率 41%,优质项目入市托举去化率同环比正增 6月年中业绩冲刺,整体市场热度延续高位震荡,同环比皆增:据 CRIC 调研数据,30个重点城 市 6 月平均开盘去化率为 41%,环比上升 3pcts,同比上升 11pcts,与 2023年高峰基本持平,延续 稳中向好。 41% 023年1月 023年5月 023年7月 023年2月 023年3月 023年4月 023年6月 023年8月 023年11月 023年12月 024年2月 024年3月 024年4月 024年5月 024年6月 024年7月 024年8月 024年9月 024年10月 024年11月 025年1月 025年2月 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a weak recovery trend, with new home transaction volumes expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in July, although the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a low base from last year [1][23]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the average opening sales rate for new homes in 30 major cities was 41%, showing a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend [2][22]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw increases in sales rates, while cities like Ningbo and Jiaxing continued to experience low sales rates below 20% [3][22]. - The introduction of high-quality new projects, particularly those with high usable area ratios, has positively impacted market activity, with new regulations promoting the construction of "good houses" [4][22]. Group 2: Project Performance - In Guangzhou, new projects under the new regulations accounted for 60% of the total supply in June, achieving a sales rate 30 percentage points higher than older projects, with some projects exceeding 40% [5][6]. - In Chongqing, new generation residential projects had sales rates above 75%, while traditional residential projects struggled with rates around 20% [7][22]. - High-end properties in core areas of cities like Shanghai and Chengdu have seen strong demand, with some projects achieving over 70% sales on the first day of opening [12][22]. Group 3: Government Policies and Market Dynamics - In cities like Suzhou and Zhengzhou, government-led initiatives such as stock housing buybacks and housing vouchers have helped boost sales in non-core areas [19][22]. - In cities like Beijing and Fuzhou, strategies such as price discounts and increased commissions have successfully driven sales [20][22]. - The overall market is characterized by significant differentiation between cities and projects, with core urban areas maintaining high demand while many peripheral projects struggle [23][22].