7月新房成交绝对量或将延续低位波动，不过基于去年基数较低，同比降幅仍有进一步收窄的可能，延续 弱复苏走势。 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 6月整体楼市延续止跌企稳的弱复苏走势，楼市新房成交微降，而项目去化率环比持增：6月平均开盘去化率为 41%，环比上升3pcts，同比上升11pcts，与2023年高峰基本持平。究竟当前热销楼盘有什么共性特征？7月又 能否延续市场热度稳步回升的态势呢？ 01 6月30城平均去化率41% 优质项目入市托举去化率同环比正增 6月年中业绩冲刺，整体市场热度延续高位震荡，同环比皆增：据CRIC调研数据，30个重点城市6月平均开盘 去化率为41%，环比上升3pcts，同比上升11pcts，与2023年高峰基本持平，延续稳中向好。 分城市来看，南宁、长春、东莞、珠海、徐州等5城无项目开盘或加推，惨淡的成交行情抑制了房企推盘积极 性。去化率超6成城市有成都、杭州、天津、重庆、合肥、长沙等，主要得益于适销对路网红盘入市带动作 用。 而从变化趋势来看，同环比均呈现涨多跌少，典型城市大体可分为以下几类：一是北京、上海、深圳、成都、 杭州等热点城市本月去化率同环比齐增，热度延续；二是武汉、南京等弱复苏城市， ...

昨天，萧山一家长在萧内网App发帖： 家有小四的娃，成绩中上，本想北干或回澜买个学区房，现在分配生比例又加大了，身边声音就不一了。 一种跟我之前想的一样，师资摆在那里，水平差异大；另一种觉得现在农村学校读更有优势…… 楼主说，孩子要是拔尖或垫底，都不纠结直接在农村读了，成绩中上但不稳定才纠结，卷或不卷都很难选。 有网友认为现在农村学校确实有优势，为了读书买房的财务成本不用考虑么？ 也有网友表示，虽然孩子读书靠自己，但资源和氛围也是很重要的，有条件的还是应该冲一把。 网友@讲个笑话逗你哭：我儿子中班，我已经买好了双回澜，小学回澜读，只要他成绩中等或者偏下，初中就直接回城镇读，抢分配生名额。 网友@妈传菜：高考你也分配吗？ 网友@吃肉大王：虽说学习这个事情靠自己，但是手头充裕的话还是冲学区房吧，不管孩子能不能读好，至少接触到的同学层面、学习氛围大概率都是不 一样的。 评论区大多也是这两种看法—— 网友@古典诗词：吃分配有吃分配的好，但吃了分配，你如果跟不上，也是心有不甘，这个真的是很纠结。 网友@月泪无痕：没必要，但看你的意愿。 网友@萧山杂谈：宁围、新街都不是分配生政策受益者，东片南片一些学校才受益。 网友@A ...

我叫周玉梅，今年 64 岁，退休前在市制衣厂当质检员，每月退休金 4800 块。 我笑着点头，她凑近了说："我跟您打听个事，我听人说，这学区房能'一起登记入学'，要不您把我孙 子的名加上？都是邻居，互相帮个忙呗！" 老伴儿老陈以前是中学老师，退休工资比我高些，我们唯一的儿子在外地工作，孙子快 6 岁了，眼瞅着 要上小学。 去年底，我和老陈咬咬牙，把攒了十年的养老钱拿出来，又贷了点款，在市中心买了套 42 平米的学区 房，就为了孙子能进那所口碑最好的实验小学。 这月初的一个早上，我拎着布袋子去菜市场买鲫鱼。 卖菜的小张瞅见我手里的学区房宣传单，随口问了句："周姐，听说你们买了实验小学的学区房？" 我正挑着菜叶子，没多想就应了声："是啊，为了孩子上学，没办法。" 没想到这句话就像长了翅膀，不到半天就传遍了整个小区。 那天傍晚在楼下碰见 3 单元的李芳，她怀里抱着孙子，老远就冲我笑："周姐，听说您买了学区房？这 可是大喜事啊！" 我心里咯噔一下，赶紧摆手："可不行，我查过教委的政策，必须是直系亲属才能登记。" 李芳一听急了，嗓门提高了八度："政策是死的人是活的！您让您儿子把房子过户给我儿子，等我孙子 入学了再过户回 ...

友友们大家来啦!今天来和大家一起分享精彩话题 老规矩先点赞再看文！ 我妈那天神神秘秘把我拽进卧室，从枕头底下摸出个文件袋。9本红彤彤的房产证，全是最抢手的学区房！她手指头戳着我脑门："死丫头，敢告诉你男人， 我打断你的腿！"我抱着那堆本子，手心直冒汗。这半年老公天天念叨要换大房子，他弟结婚还等着我们出首付。 昨天婆婆又来哭穷，说小叔子对象非要加 名才领证。我摸着包里新办的单独账户，心里偷着乐。 01 02 我妈把家里5套商铺都过户给我，让我别告诉老公，说怕他惦记。结果第二年老公做生意亏了300万，要卖房还债，我偷偷把商铺租出去的钱全填进去了。现 在想想，要不是我妈有先见之明，我们连住的地方都没了。老公到现在都不知道这些商铺是我的，还以为是租的。 03 04 以前我妈总说男人靠不住，我还不信，觉得老公对我挺好；现在他把家里积蓄全拿去投资失败，还欠了一屁股债，天天跟我哭穷要钱，我才明白妈妈为什么 偷偷把房子都过户给我。这才是未雨绸缪呢 06 05 结婚后才发现老公对钱特别敏感，动不动就查账。妈妈把房子给我时特意叮嘱别说，我还觉得她多虑了。结果上个月老公发现我名下多了套房子，立马问是 不是我妈给的，说要拿来投资。幸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The auction of a high-quality school district property in Hangzhou, specifically the combination of "Xuejun Primary School + Shisan Middle School," attracted attention due to its low bidding activity despite its desirable features [1][4]. Group 1: Property Details - The property located at 3-2 Xianing Lane has a building area of 141.15 m², featuring a duplex layout with 2 bedrooms, 2 living rooms, 1 kitchen, and 1 bathroom on the first level, and 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and a terrace on the second level [1]. - The starting auction price was set at 5.967 million yuan, translating to an initial price of approximately 42,300 yuan per m² [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The area around Xianing Lane has undergone renovations, improving its environment and amenities, including the installation of elevators in the building [4]. - Despite the property's strong attributes, including being in a sought-after school district and having a higher usable area compared to typical elevator buildings, it received no bids until 8 minutes before the auction ended, ultimately selling at the base price [4]. - Historical data shows that school district properties in this area have seen significant price fluctuations, with a notable drop in recent years. For instance, a property in the same district sold for over 15,000 yuan per m² in 2018, while recent transactions have seen prices fall below 5,000 yuan per m² [7][8].

两个数据，值得关注。 一个是年初曝光的人口数据，2024年长沙新增人口10.39万，以1061.7万总人口居全国第15位！ | | | 干万人口城市2024年常住人口数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市 | | 2024年人口(万人) 2023年人口(万人) 人口变化(万人) | | 排名 | | 重庆市 | 3190.47 | 3191.43 | -0.96 | 1 | | 上海市 | 2480.26 | 2487.45 | -7.19 | 2 | | 北京市 | 2183.2 | 2185.8 | -2.6 | 3 | | 成都市 | 2147.4 | 2140.3 | +7.1 | 4 | | 广州市 | 1897.8 | 1882.7 | +15.1 | 5 | | 深圳市 | 1798.95 | 1779.01 | +19.94 | 6 | | 武汉市 | 1380.91 | 1377.4 | +3.51 | 7 | | 天津市 | 1364 | 1364 | 0 | 8 | | 西安市 | 1316.76 | 1307.82 | +8.94 | ...

实际上，无论当下对"学区房"是否刚需，但凡加上这个标签，似乎就拥有了极大的竞争优势。在后期出手时，也常常 是"一击制胜"的关键所在。而在宁波，镇海的"学区房"属于buff叠满，不管有娃没娃的家庭，基本都知道这里有"光 环"加成。 然而，现实并非如此简单，也并不是"有房就能赢在起跑线上"。在 宁波市镇海区人民政府官网相关介绍中 ，镇海区 公办学校招生是根据"先片区、后学区"原则，按照"有户有房、有户无房、有房无户"的顺序分类排序，依次录取。并 且会根据户口迁入时间先后进行调剂。就此， 去年底镇海区也发出了2025年义务段公办学校户籍儿童入学第一次预警 公告。 属实没想到的是，几天前，网友"风绝凌"在东论发帖， 反馈的情况与外界的普遍想象大相径庭，引发了网友的讨论。 几年前，一部国民关注度颇高的家庭剧《小欢喜》里有一句台词： "孩子、房子、票子，忙活一辈子"，一语道破了普 通人生活中的诸多无奈与奔波，被不少观众奉为"经典"。 "买房"话题，向来紧扣着老百姓的神经线。 很多时候"牵一发而动全身"，不仅关乎个人的居住需求，还会影响几代人 的"钱袋子"。如果加上"学区房"的buff，气氛瞬间被点燃。 原来，早在2020 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses five types of properties that may become undesirable in the real estate market starting next year, highlighting the changing dynamics and risks associated with these properties [1]. Group 1: Types of Properties - Old and dilapidated school district houses are losing their appeal due to policy changes like multi-school zoning and teacher rotation, leading to a significant drop in value [1]. - Small property rights houses are problematic as they lack legal ownership certificates, making them vulnerable to disputes and government actions, which could result in financial losses for buyers [3]. - Large suburban houses are becoming less attractive due to long commuting times and inadequate local amenities, leading to difficulties in selling even at reduced prices [3]. - Commercial-residential mixed-use properties have short ownership periods and higher living costs, along with complex living environments that deter potential buyers [4]. - Properties with ownership disputes present significant risks, as unclear ownership can lead to legal troubles for buyers, making them hard to sell [6].

Group 1: Economic Shift - The middle class in Shenzhen is experiencing a significant lifestyle change, moving from luxury spending to cost-cutting measures as housing and car ownership become liabilities [1] - The trend of "消费降级" (consumption downgrade) reflects a broader societal shift, where previously high-spending individuals are now focused on saving money and finding affordable alternatives [1][11] Group 2: Education Sector Changes - Parents are shifting from private education to public schooling, saving substantial amounts on tuition fees, with some families reportedly saving 180,000 yuan annually [2][4] - The focus on educational spending is changing, with families now prioritizing cost-effective options like free online tutorials over expensive classes [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer habits, with individuals opting for cheaper alternatives like Luckin Coffee instead of Starbucks, and second-hand luxury goods losing value [5] - The rise of price comparison tools among consumers indicates a growing trend towards frugality and budget-conscious shopping [7] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in Shenzhen is facing a downturn, with properties that once sold for high prices now being viewed as burdens, leading to an increase in foreclosures [8] - The number of foreclosed properties has reportedly increased sevenfold over three years, indicating a significant market shift [8] Group 5: Lifestyle Adjustments - The middle class is finding comfort in simpler, more affordable food options, such as street food, as opposed to high-end dining experiences [9] - There is a growing realization that financial security is more about cash flow and family connections than material possessions [11][12]

导语 2025年一季度楼市企稳，热点城市回暖，二季度或延续弱复苏。 新房层面，得益于核心一线利好新政持续发酵，一季度115个重点城市商品住宅成交面积5131万平方米，持平去 年。从月度变化趋势来看，自2024年2月以来，新房成交同比降幅持续收窄，至2025年3月新房成交单月同比持平 去年，止跌企稳征兆初显。 ◎ 文 / 杨科伟、俞倩倩 研究视点 2025年一季度市场止跌企稳，随着3月传统营销旺季来临，整体楼市也有复苏迹象，步入3月，一二手房成交回 升，二手房市占率持续上升，究竟3月小阳春成色几何？各城市复苏有何差异化特征，基于当前市场逻辑，二季度 楼市成交是否还有放量空间，哪些城市又存在结构性机会呢？ 0 1 引子：一季度楼市筑底企稳，新房点状回温，二手增速放缓（本节有删减） 2025年一季度市场止跌企稳，对比历年一季度30个典型城市新房和二手房成交总量规模，可以看出2025年基本处 于6年来中值水平，2025年一季度一二手房成交面积达8204万平方米，同比增长17%。 分能级来看，一线韧性好于二线好于三四线，据CRIC监测数据，一线一季度累计同比正增26%，显著好于二线 5%，三四线"返乡置业"爽约，叠加居 ...