Group 1 - The real estate market in the first seven months of the year shows mixed signals, with new home transactions experiencing a seasonal decline, reaching a low point for the year and turning negative year-on-year [1][3] - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Nanjing are seeing strong sales in high-end improvement projects, which positively contribute to market stabilization [2][7] - The average sales rate in 30 monitored cities dropped to 30% in July, a decrease of 11 percentage points month-on-month, while the total transaction volume for the first seven months slightly decreased by 1% compared to the previous year [3][4] Group 2 - In July, the transaction volume in 30 key cities was 823 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 29% and a year-on-year decrease of 20% [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Nanning, and Tianjin had sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of popular projects [4][5] - The market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations in August, with a potential narrowing of the year-on-year decline to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [2][3] Group 3 - High-end improvement projects in core urban areas are performing well, with notable sales in Shanghai and Chengdu, where projects like Yanshi in Shanghai achieved a sales rate of 86% and 100% in July [7][8] - Educational properties are also driving demand in cities like Changsha and Xi'an, with projects benefiting from school district advantages seeing higher sales [9][10] - The overall market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend, with significant differentiation between cities and projects, particularly in core areas with strong amenities and product quality [14]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with July witnessing a seasonal decline in market activity, although still outperforming the same period last year [1][19]. Market Performance - In July, the average opening sales rate across 30 key cities dropped to 30%, marking a year-to-date low, with a month-on-month decrease of 11 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points [4][19]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experienced significant declines in sales rates, with Shenzhen hitting a record low of 4% [7][19]. - Cities such as Tianjin and Suzhou saw increases in sales rates, indicating a continuation of weak recovery trends [7]. Hot Selling Projects - Core area high-end projects in cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou remain the main drivers of sales, with notable examples achieving high sales rates [9][10]. - In Chengdu, top-selling projects were all located in core areas, benefiting from strong product appeal and increased sales efforts from developers [9]. - Educational resources continue to drive demand in cities like Changsha and Xi'an, where school district properties are among the top sellers [11][12]. Product Trends - The introduction of high-efficiency "fourth-generation" residential projects and new regulations has positively impacted short-term market activity, with these projects often outperforming traditional offerings [13][19]. - However, there is a noticeable divergence in sales performance among new projects, with some failing to attract buyers despite product advantages due to inadequate supporting infrastructure [14][19]. Pricing Strategies - In weaker second-tier cities, developers are increasingly resorting to discounting and enhanced commission structures to boost sales, with notable success in cities like Xi'an and Suzhou [16][19]. - Projects in these cities have seen significant sales through aggressive pricing strategies, with many offering discounts of up to 20% [17][19]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a low transaction volume phase in August, with developers' enthusiasm for launching new projects likely to remain subdued [19]. - However, due to last year's low base, the year-on-year decline in sales may narrow to within 5%, continuing the weak recovery trend [19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable recovery in the real estate market, with an average opening sales rate of 41% in June across 30 cities, reflecting a positive trend in market performance [3][31]. Core Insights - The overall real estate market in June continued its weak recovery trend, with a slight decrease in new home transactions but an increase in project sales rates, which rose by 3 percentage points month-on-month and 11 percentage points year-on-year [3][31]. - High-quality projects and new regulations have positively influenced market performance, with new projects achieving significantly higher sales rates compared to traditional ones [11][31]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation in market performance between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third and fourth-tier cities, with the former showing sustained demand and higher sales rates [31][32]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In June, the average opening sales rate across 30 key cities was 41%, marking a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, indicating a stable market [3][31]. - Cities like Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Tianjin showed sales rates exceeding 60%, driven by the introduction of attractive new projects [7][31]. New Regulations and Project Performance - New regulations and high-efficiency housing projects have led to improved sales rates, with new projects in Guangzhou achieving a sales rate 30 percentage points higher than older projects [11][31]. - In June, Guangzhou saw 11 new projects enter the market, accounting for 60% of the total supply, with a subscription rate of approximately 90% [11][31]. City-Specific Trends - Core cities such as Shanghai and Chengdu experienced strong demand for high-end properties, with many projects achieving over 70% sales rates on the first day of opening [18][20]. - In contrast, weaker cities like Nanning and Changchun saw no new project launches, reflecting a lack of market activity [7][31]. Government Policies and Market Dynamics - Government-led initiatives, such as stock housing buybacks and housing vouchers, have positively impacted sales in cities like Suzhou and Zhengzhou, with a significant portion of sales driven by these policies [25][31]. - The report notes that in cities like Beijing and Xiamen, aggressive discounting and commission incentives have successfully boosted sales [27][31]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that new home transaction volumes may continue to fluctuate at low levels, but the year-on-year decline could narrow due to a low base from the previous year [32][31]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with core areas maintaining high demand while peripheral projects struggle to achieve sales [32][31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a weak recovery trend, with new home transaction volumes expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in July, although the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a low base from last year [1][23]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June, the average opening sales rate for new homes in 30 major cities was 41%, showing a month-on-month increase of 3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, indicating a stable upward trend [2][22]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou saw increases in sales rates, while cities like Ningbo and Jiaxing continued to experience low sales rates below 20% [3][22]. - The introduction of high-quality new projects, particularly those with high usable area ratios, has positively impacted market activity, with new regulations promoting the construction of "good houses" [4][22]. Group 2: Project Performance - In Guangzhou, new projects under the new regulations accounted for 60% of the total supply in June, achieving a sales rate 30 percentage points higher than older projects, with some projects exceeding 40% [5][6]. - In Chongqing, new generation residential projects had sales rates above 75%, while traditional residential projects struggled with rates around 20% [7][22]. - High-end properties in core areas of cities like Shanghai and Chengdu have seen strong demand, with some projects achieving over 70% sales on the first day of opening [12][22]. Group 3: Government Policies and Market Dynamics - In cities like Suzhou and Zhengzhou, government-led initiatives such as stock housing buybacks and housing vouchers have helped boost sales in non-core areas [19][22]. - In cities like Beijing and Fuzhou, strategies such as price discounts and increased commissions have successfully driven sales [20][22]. - The overall market is characterized by significant differentiation between cities and projects, with core urban areas maintaining high demand while many peripheral projects struggle [23][22].

Group 1 - The overall real estate market has shown a weak recovery trend since 2025, with April experiencing a decline in new home sales compared to the peak in March, but still remaining at a high level for the year [1][2] - In May, sales in key cities have not exceeded the levels of April, although some cities have seen an increase compared to May 2024 [2][3] - The average absorption rate in April for typical city projects decreased by 6 percentage points month-on-month but increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the peak in 2023 [1][3] Group 2 - The growth momentum in the real estate market has significantly slowed down since April, with new home supply remaining flat compared to March, while transaction volumes have decreased [2][3] - In May, both supply and sales in key cities have returned to a low phase, with some cities showing higher sales compared to the same period in 2024 [2][3] - Notable cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw increases in sales of 30.2%, 20.64%, and 5.63% respectively in May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The absorption rate in 30 key cities averaged 38% in April, with a decrease of 6 percentage points month-on-month, but an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stable market trend [3] - Cities with absorption rates exceeding 60% include Chengdu, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, and Tianjin, primarily driven by the launch of core area improvement projects [3][9] - New regulatory projects have shown significantly better absorption rates compared to traditional projects, with high practical utility rates being a key factor [7][9] Group 4 - Projects with strong product capabilities, particularly those with good transportation and educational resources, continue to be popular among buyers [10][11] - In cities like Shanghai, projects near transit lines and with strong educational attributes have seen high sales, with notable examples including the Feiyun Yuefu and other transit-oriented developments [11][12] - During the May Day holiday, many second-tier cities adopted discount strategies to boost sales, achieving positive marketing results [13][16] Group 5 - The overall market recovery momentum is weakening, with core area improvement projects and high practical utility new regulatory projects driving sales [16] - In second-tier cities like Chengdu and Chongqing, the market is heavily reliant on discounts and high commissions to stimulate sales, indicating a significant downgrade in consumer purchasing power [16] - Future market trends are expected to continue the weak recovery trajectory, with new regulatory projects potentially driving localized market improvements [16]