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金禾实业(002597):24年净利承压,静待代糖复苏
HTSC· 2025-04-18 04:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 26.85 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.3 billion RMB in 2024, remaining stable year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21% to 560 million RMB [1]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to pressures in the bulk chemical sector and increased unit costs due to the suspension of sucralose production [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the sweetener market, supported by supply-side and cost-side factors, which could enhance future profitability [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.3 billion RMB, with a net profit of 560 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.26 billion RMB, up 4% year-on-year but down 16% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.83 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 82% [1]. Market Dynamics - The sweetener prices began to rise in the second half of the previous year due to cost support and supply-side coordination [2]. - The report notes a 14% year-on-year decline in sucralose exports in the first two months of 2025, indicating ongoing market challenges [3]. Project Developments - The company successfully launched several projects, including a 600,000-ton sulfuric acid production facility and an 80,000-ton electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project, which are expected to contribute to future profits [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.02 billion RMB for 2025, 1.26 billion RMB for 2026, and 1.49 billion RMB for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 83%, 24%, and 18% respectively [5]. - The report assigns a 15x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a target price of 26.85 RMB, which is an increase from the previous target of 25.06 RMB [5].