近期，美联储降息预期持续升温，成为推动贵金属价格上行的重要驱动力。国盛证券指出，特朗普罢免美联储理事库克事 件持续发酵，进一步削弱美联储独立性，美元走弱利好贵金属。同时，美国核心PCE指数连续三个月回升，通胀压力未 减，市场押注美联储降息，金银价格快速走强。COMEX白银创年内新高，伦敦金也接近年内高点，技术面形成强趋势突 破。若美国经济呈现"类滞胀"局面，金银价格有望进一步上行。建议关注兴业银锡、盛达资源、紫金矿业、山东黄金等标 的。 截至8月29日，黄金股票ETF基金近1年净值上涨44.43%。从收益能力看，截至2025年8月29日，黄金股票ETF基金自成立以 来，最高单月回报为16.59%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为31.09%，涨跌月数比为8/6，上涨月份平均收益率为 8.13%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年8月29日，黄金股票ETF基金近3个月超越基准年化收益为8.49%，排 名可比基金1/6。 平安证券指出，截至8月底，COMEX黄金主力合约已上涨至3,526.1美元/盎司，SPDR黄金ETF持仓环比增加2.2%。美国7月 核心PCE物价指数同比升至2.9%，显示 ...

华泰证券指出，美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole年会上释放鸽派信号，提供9月再次降息的指引，预计年内将再降息两 次。华泰宏观认为，降息有望驱动实际利率下行，对黄金构成利好。中长期来看，除非美国恢复高增长低通胀并行的经济 预期，并能有效降低赤字率，否则以央行为代表的买家或延续当前购金策略，黄金的上涨趋势或持续。在此背景下，中金 黄金作为黄金行业龙头，2025年上半年实现归母净利26.95亿元，同比增长54.64%，矿山板块毛利率同比提升6.97个百分点 至55.27%，盈利能力显著增强。公司积极勘探增储，累计完成增储金金属量13.82吨，资源保障能力持续夯实。 截至2025年8月29日 13:16，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨3.47%，成分股万国黄金集团(03939)上涨 8.90%，江西铜业股份(00358)上涨8.66%，中国黄金国际(02099)上涨8.24%，江西铜业(600362)，赤峰黄金(06693)等个股跟 涨。黄金股票ETF基金(159322)上涨3.13%，最新价报1.35元。拉长时间看，截至2025年8月28日，黄金股票ETF基金近1周累 计上涨4.72%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have been significantly influenced by speculative demand and short-term arbitrage, but long-term demand from central bank purchases and financial investments is expected to support gold prices, leading to a potential rise above $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may signal interest rate cuts, which would support liquidity and consequently gold prices, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The gold stock ETF has shown a year-to-date net value increase of 29.36%, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 66.13% of the index [4] - The performance of the top ten holdings in the gold stock ETF shows mixed results, with some stocks experiencing declines while others, like Zijin Mining and Chow Tai Fook, have seen slight increases [7] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, indicating a relatively low cost for investors [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for the gold industry (931238) has decreased by 1.03% as of July 7, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks include Chao Hong Ji (002345) with a rise of 5.67%, Zhuye Group (600961) up by 3.34%, and Mankalon (300945) increasing by 3.01% [1] - The latest price for the gold stock ETF fund (159322) is 1.21 yuan [1] Group 2 - As of July 4, the gold stock ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 22.83% over the past year [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is projected to incur over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade [2] - The mismatch between current economic growth and future bond issuance is expected to continue impacting the dollar, leading to sustained valuation for gold as a "traditional currency" [2] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF fund closely tracks the China Securities Index for the gold industry, which selects 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 66.13% of the total index weight [4] Group 4 - The performance of the top ten holdings in the gold stock ETF fund shows varying declines, with Shandong Gold (600547) down by 0.82% and Zijin Mining (02899) down by 2.38% [5] - The largest weight in the ETF is held by Shandong Gold at 8.90%, followed by Zhongjin Gold (600489) at 7.66% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock prices and ETF performance, influenced by central bank gold reserves and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 9, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) decreased by 1.46%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. - Leading gainers included Xingye Silver (000426) up 2.66%, Mankalon (300945) up 2.33%, and Huayu Mining (601020) up 1.07% [1]. - Major decliners were Shandong Gold (01787) down 4.79%, Zhaojin Mining (01818) down 4.76%, and Laopu Gold (06181) down 2.88% [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) fell by 1.28%, with a latest price of 1.16 yuan, but saw a 3.71% increase over the past week as of June 6 [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The Gold Stock ETF had a turnover rate of 12.63% with a trading volume of 4.0828 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the Gold Stock ETF over the past week was 6.1523 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Reserves - As of the end of May 2025, China's central bank gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces, marking seven consecutive months of growth, totaling an increase of 1.03 million ounces [1]. - China ranks seventh globally in gold reserves, indicating a potential misalignment with its economic scale [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 68.91% of the total index weight, with Shandong Gold (600547) and Zijin Mining (601899) being the largest components [4].

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market shows mixed performance with significant movements in various ETFs, indicating potential investment opportunities in index ETFs for rebound strategies [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Super Large Cap ETF (510020) leads with a gain of 10.00% [1] - The Carbon Neutral 50 ETF (159861) increases by 1.70% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (工银, 159217) rises by 1.28% [1] - The Pension ETF (516560) experiences a decline of 0.75% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund (159322) falls by 0.72% [1] - The Hong Kong State-Owned Enterprises ETF (513810) decreases by 0.71% [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy index ETFs to capitalize on market rebounds, focusing on leading market players [1]