Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of the gold industry stocks, with the China Securities Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index showing mixed results, led by Hunan Gold's increase of 9.99% and a significant inflow into gold ETFs [1][2] - The gold stock ETF fund has reached a new high in scale at 399 million yuan, with a notable net inflow of 240 million yuan over the past four days, averaging nearly 60 million yuan per day [1] - UBS maintains a bullish stance on gold, raising its price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, up from the previous target of $5,000 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index consists of 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten stocks accounting for 63.58% of the index [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold, indicating a concentration in a few key players within the gold industry [2]

Where Are Gold and Silver Heading to After Key Prices Breakthrough? 金银向上突破后去向何方? Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询号Consulting No .: Z0021426 从业资格号Qualification No: F03138401 朱善颖 Zhu Shanying 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No .: Z0013632 Price Movement 价格异动 the risk of overheating in the short-term market continues to increase. Gold and silver need to pay attention to the rhythm. The long-term upward trend is expected to continue, ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26, gold and silver prices rose significantly, with Shanghai gold up 3.67% and Shanghai silver up 12.78%. London gold exceeded $5100/oz and London silver approached $110/oz. Geopolitical risks and the implied US dollar credit crisis are the driving factors [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed chair nomination and independence risk are more important than the delayed rate - cut expectation. The market focuses on the Fed's independence as a new chair nomination nears [5]. - Short - term over - heating risk of gold and silver is increasing, and investors should pay attention to trading rhythm. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and the annual target range is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Price Movement and Driving Factors - On January 26, gold and silver prices soared. Geopolitical conflicts in January, such as those between the US and South America, Europe, and Iran, led to a US dollar credit crisis, driving up precious metals. The US's actions around Greenland also affected the market [4]. 2. Fed - Related Factors - US economic data is resilient, and the expected Fed rate - cut is postponed to June. But the market focuses on the Fed's independence risk as a new chair nomination nears. Reed is the most likely nominee and his dovish remarks support long - term rate - cut expectations [5]. 3. Market Outlook and Target Range - Short - term over - heating risk of gold and silver is rising. If geopolitical issues ease or the Fed makes unexpectedly hawkish statements, short - term market adjustments may occur. The annual target range for spot gold is raised to $5900 - 6000/oz, and for spot silver to $120 - 150/oz [6]

Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 81% [1] - Zijin Mining Group anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [2] - Both companies attribute their profit growth to increased production and rising prices of gold and other minerals [1][2] Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - Major institutions remain bullish on gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices will reach approximately $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [3] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could rise to $5,055 per ounce in Q4 2026, potentially reaching $6,000 per ounce [3] - ICBC Credit Suisse highlights that gold will benefit from global multipolarity and a reshaping of credit structures, which will enhance gold's role in foreign exchange reserves [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - In November 2025, global central banks net purchased 45 tons of gold, maintaining a high level of demand despite a slight decrease from October [4] - From the beginning of 2025 to the end of November, central banks reported a cumulative net purchase of 297 tons of gold [4] - The World Gold Council indicates that while the growth rate of net purchases has slowed compared to previous years, the overall demand for gold from central banks remains robust [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing a significant resurgence, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver exceeding $79.3 per ounce, both reaching historical highs as uncertainties dissipate [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 72.69%, approaching the second-highest historical record from 1974, while silver's annual increase stands at 173.99%, significantly surpassing the 83.61% rise in 2010 [1][2]. - The silver market is expected to set a historical record for annual growth in 2025, with a market dynamic characterized by gold leading and silver experiencing explosive growth [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Trends - Investment demand has overtaken central bank gold purchases as the primary driver of the market, alongside structural squeezes in the silver market due to global inventory issues and strong industrial demand [2]. - A decline of approximately 10% in the US dollar index, coupled with the Federal Reserve's resumption of rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion, has contributed to the bullish sentiment in precious metals [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts generally expect the strong performance of gold and silver to continue, although they anticipate that the rate of increase will not match the extraordinary levels seen in 2025 [5]. - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is viewed as optimistic, with expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and a global liquidity environment remaining loose, which may influence the performance of risk assets and the appeal of gold as a safe haven [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - The global precious metals market is deemed suitable for strategic allocation, with gold recommended as a core defensive asset supported by central bank purchases and ETF inflows, while silver is suggested for high-elasticity allocation during phases of capital inflow [6]. - Analysts have identified potential risks for silver, including rapid capital withdrawal from ETFs, the return of US silver stocks to London, and the lack of inclusion of silver in global central bank balance sheets, which may affect its status as a defensive reserve asset [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, precious metal prices rebounded slightly after a decline, with the adjustment range narrowing. The high levels of initial and continuing jobless claims in the US, along with the government's long - term shutdown, increased the downward risk in the labor market. US stocks remained weak, and US bonds strengthened slightly. Gold and silver may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains. The core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, such as excessive debt issuance and de - globalization, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit, and silver will benefit from spill - over effects. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, an increase from the previous week. The data for several weeks were either revised or not released due to the government shutdown [2]. - According to the Cleveland Fed, the number of large - scale layoff notices issued by US enterprises in October reached one of the highest levels in history, with about 39,006 people receiving advance notice [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report showed that in the four weeks ending November 1, private - sector employers in the US reduced an average of 2,500 jobs per week [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - In the short term, due to high jobless claims and the government shutdown, precious metals may fluctuate. In the long term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against the US dollar's credit risk, and silver will benefit from spill - over effects and the global economic recovery. The expected range for spot London gold this week is [3,800, 4,200] US dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2,234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2,534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2,208.90, down 0.88% [43]. 3.4 Precious Metals Index - On November 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 3,263.58, with a daily decline of 1.39%, a decline of 2.97% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.62% in the past month, and an increase of 47.51% since the beginning of the year [45].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-18 12⽉降息概率延续⾛低，贵⾦属调整 周⼀贵⾦属价格延续调整，随着美联储发⾔继续转鹰，12⽉降息概率进⼀ 步⾛低，同时⽩银租赁利率掉头回落，现货紧张的情绪缓解，⾦银同步维 持调整格局。短期市场预计进⼊预期抢跑后的价格回归阶段，贵⾦属降波 调整持续，关注本周美国GDP及⾮农数据披露。 重点资讯： 1）随着美国政府"停摆"结束，各州正在重新启动"补充营养援助 计划"（SNAP）救济金的发放工作，但与此同时，"大而美"税收与 支出法案对SNAP体系的全面收紧也正式生效。国会预算办公室预计， 新规将使全美约30万人最终失去SNAP资格。 2）日本经济财政政策会议会议纪要显示，日本央行行长植田和男表 示，日本央行正在追求一个能确保平稳着陆的利率水平；潜在通胀率 仍低于目标水平，因此将维持宽松的货币政策立场；从以稳定方式实 现2%通胀目标的角度来看，长期维持过于宽松的货币政策存在风险。 3）美国11月纽约联储制造业指数为18.7，为2024年11月以来新高， 预期5.8，前值10.7；就业指数为6.6，前值6.2；新订单指数 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In October, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, exceeding the expected increase of 28,000 people. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 people to a decrease of 29,000 people. ADP reported that last month, U.S. employment rebounded from two months of weakness, but the scope of the rebound was not broad. Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth, while employers in professional business services, information, leisure, and the hotel industry laid off employees for the third consecutive month. In October, the year - on - year salary increase remained the same as the previous month, with 4.5% for those who did not change jobs and 6.7% for job - hoppers [2]. - The U.S. Treasury set the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion, in line with market expectations. It plans to issue $58 billion of 3 - year Treasury bonds on November 10, $42 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds on November 12, and $25 billion of 30 - year Treasury bonds on November 13, and keep the new issuance auction scale of 10 - year inflation - protected bonds (TIPS) in January at $21 billion. The U.S. Treasury expects the auction market to remain stable for at least the next few quarters and plans to increase the Treasury issuance scale by mid - 2026 [2]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest - lasting government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the fourth quarter will decline by 1 - 2 percentage points. The record - breaking "shutdown" has severely impacted people's livelihoods in areas such as U.S. aviation safety and food relief [3]. Price Logic - Wednesday witnessed a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant decline due to a decrease in risk aversion, with gold prices dropping sharply [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 22, spot gold prices fell over 2%, reaching a low of $4002 per ounce before recovering slightly to $4095 per ounce, marking a 0.68% decline [1] - On October 21, spot gold closed at $4130.41 per ounce, reflecting a 5.18% drop, the largest single-day decline in five years [3] - COMEX gold futures also fell by 4.94%, closing at $4144.10 per ounce [3] - Spot silver saw a significant drop of 8.7%, reaching $47.89 per ounce, the worst single-day performance since February 2021 [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - Domestic gold jewelry prices were significantly reduced on October 22, with major brands like Lao Miao and Zhou Sheng Sheng lowering their prices by 83 yuan and 39 yuan per gram, respectively [3] - The gold mining sector experienced widespread declines, with companies like Zhaojin Gold hitting their daily limit down, and others like Western Gold and Hunan Gold also seeing substantial losses [3] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, indicating potential buying interest may limit further declines [4] - According to CITIC Futures, the current market may be entering a phase of adjustment after nearly two months of rising prices, with future focus on U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical changes [4] - The precious metals market is viewed as being in a bull market, with the decline of dollar credit being a core factor supporting long-term strategic value in gold and silver [4] Group 4: ETF Trends - The World Gold Council reported that in September 2025, global physical gold ETFs recorded the largest monthly inflow ever, contributing to a record total inflow of $26 billion in the third quarter [5] - As of the end of the third quarter, total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs reached a historic high of $472 billion, with total holdings increasing by 6% to 3838 tons [5]

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of the new fund manager, He Wei, emphasizes long-term stable returns over short-term gains, aiming to provide a steady holding experience for investors [2][4]. Investment Philosophy - The team led by He Wei focuses on "absolute return" principles, integrating this approach into their relative return public funds, prioritizing long-term stability [4][5]. - The investment strategy involves taking meaningful risks while maintaining a defensive posture during market bubbles, concentrating on stable blue-chip stocks to control drawdowns [4][5]. Fund Performance - The Silver Hua Hu Shen Stock Connect Fund, managed by He Wei, achieved a three-year unit net value growth rate of 24.08%, ranking in the top 3% of its category [5]. - The fund has consistently delivered excess returns of 3% to 12% annually from 2022 to 2024 [5]. Investment Framework - The investment framework includes selecting fundamentally driven stocks with safety margins, prioritizing win rates over potential returns, and avoiding overvalued and crowded trades [6]. - Emphasis is placed on macroeconomic trends and future developments, with a focus on risk-reward ratios and controlling drawdowns [6]. Market Outlook - He Wei expresses optimism about the long-term potential of the Chinese capital market, citing strong fundamentals in manufacturing, technology, and healthcare [10]. - The market is viewed as undervalued due to geopolitical tensions, with expectations of improved performance as foreign capital begins to enter [10]. Sector Focus - The long-term investment value in the non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted, with a favorable supply-demand structure for commodities like gold, copper, and aluminum [11]. - The financial sector, particularly bank stocks, is seen as having reasonable dividend yields and potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [11]. New Fund Launch - The upcoming Silver Hua Xin He Mixed Securities Investment Fund will feature a floating management fee structure, aiming to build a long-term relationship with investors through steady returns [9]. - This new fund will include investments in the Hong Kong stock market, which is perceived to offer attractive opportunities compared to A-shares [9].