10月9日，上证指数再度突破3900点关口，贵金属、黄金板块也掀起涨停潮，西部黄金、四川黄金、山 东黄金等十余股涨停。 梳理发现，本轮黄金行情的爆发是国际金价突破历史关口、美联储货币政策转向预期以及国内央行持续 购金等共同作用的结果。 回顾国庆期间，黄金的价格不断创出新高。10月8日，COMEX黄金盘中一度突破4060美元/盎司。"国 庆"假期累计上涨4.45%，为黄金板块上涨提供了直接催化剂。相应地，国内黄金珠宝品牌的足金首饰 价格也随之上调，如周生生足金饰品已涨至1170元/克，周大福足金饰品涨至1168元/克。 同时，美联储货币政策转向预期进一步强化了黄金的配置价值。中信期货分析称，预计今年年内，美联 储降息次数将扩张至3次。并且，美联储独立性风险的增加，进一步强化了美元信用下行预期，为金价 带来更大上涨弹性。整体看，四季度金价上行逻辑较为顺畅。 此外，国内央行的持续购金也为市场提供了稳定支撑。中国人民银行数据显示，截至9月末，中国央行 黄金储备达到7406万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，已连续第11个月增持黄金。 10月8日晚间，四川黄金还宣布以5.10亿元竞得新疆高昌区库格孜—觉北金矿普查探矿权。据介绍， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重点资讯： 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-26 美国经济数据强于预期，贵⾦属⼩幅调 整 周四贵⾦属价格⼩幅调整。夜间披露的美国系列经济数据——⼆季度实际 GDP、周度初请失业⾦⼈数及耐⽤品订单均强于预期，美元指数短线强势 反弹，贵⾦属承压⼩幅回落。当下贵⾦属仍在上⾏趋势中，波动率等指标 显⽰拥挤程度偏低，价格⾛势整体稳健。⼗⼀⻓假临近，外盘波动或有加 ⼤，建议投资者适当控制仓位防范⻛险。 1）美国第二季度实际GDP年化终值环比增3.8%，预期增3.3%，修正值 增3.3%；第二季度GDP价格指数终值增2.1%，预期增2%，修正值增 2%；第二季度实际个人消费支出终值环比增2.5%，预期增1.7%，修正 值增1.6%。 2）美国上周初请失业金人数21.8万人，预期23.5万人，前值从23.1 万人修正为23.2万人；四周均值23.75万人，前值24万人。美国至9月 13日当周续请失业金人数192.6万人，预期193.5万人，前值192万 人。 3）美国8月耐用品订单初值环比增2.9%，预期减0.5%，7月终值从减 2.8%修正为减2.7%；扣除国防的 ...

国内金饰价格突破1100元/克。 国际金价和国内金价再创新高之际，记者发现，日前国内部分黄金珠宝品牌的金饰价格也再攀新高，并突破了1100元/ 克。 对于后市金价的走势，中信期货研究所宏观研究组资深研究员朱善颖在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，黄金的上涨行 情并未结束，四季度上行逻辑依然顺畅。 金价再创新高之际 国内金饰突破1100元/克 金价的上涨也传导至产业链下游。 据知名黄金珠宝品牌周生生官网，其足金饰品价格一度超过1100元/克。9月24日9时56分，周生生官网显示，其足金饰 品价格为1105元/克，当天下午的价格有所下降，但仍达1100元/克。 另一家知名黄金珠宝品牌周大福官网数据显示，9月24日其足金（饰品、工艺品类）价格也已逼近1100元/克，为1098 元/克。 金饰价格再攀新高的背后，是黄金价格的持续上行。 数据显示，9月24日上海黄金交易所Au99.99合约价格一度高达856.80元/克，再创出历史新高。今年9月以来，上海黄金 交易所Au99.99合约价格累计已上涨近10%，今年以来该合约价格累计上涨近四成。 国内黄金期货方面，9月24日上海期货交易所黄金期货主力合约亦进一步上行，盘中价格最高 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-24 贵⾦属维持⾼斜率上涨 周⼆贵⾦属价格延续上涨，近期加密货币频繁受⿊客攻击、美国政府再度 ⾯临停摆⻛险等因素带来短期利多。在降息周期主导的上⾏趋势中，货币 属性的宏⼤叙事进⼀步放⼤价格弹性，波动率及成交指标显⽰市场还未进 ⼊拥挤阶段，贵⾦属价格短期或延续⾼斜率上⾏。 重点资讯： 1）美国第二季度经常帐赤字2513亿美元，为2023年第三季度以来最 少赤字，预期赤字2563亿美元，前值从赤字4502亿美元修正为赤字 4398亿美元。 2）美联储新任理事米兰首次发表政策演讲便抛出惊人观点，直言基 准利率远高于合理水平，应积极大幅下调。他认为降息空间近2个百 分点，但这一激进观点使其在美联储内部陷入孤立。 3）美国政府停摆风险迫近，美国总统特朗普本周将在白宫会见参议 院少数党领袖查克·舒默和众议院少数党领袖Hakeem Jeffries。" 在会晤中，我们将强调应对成本上升的重要性，其中包括共和党造成 的医疗危机，"议员们在声明中表示。 价格逻辑： 周二贵金属价格延续上涨，近期加密货币频繁受黑客攻击、美国政府 再度面临停 ...

中信期货分析指出，当前降息预期仍是当下黄金的核心利多驱动。通胀温和叠加就业弱势，为美联储降 息行为扫清障碍，Fed Watch显示年内美联储降息预期扩张至3次，降息周期重启后，鸽派预期有望继续 主导黄金上行。当前美联储负责人换届在即，特朗普对美联储的控制力有望实质性增强，远期降息有想 象空间，美联储独立性风险的增加，也强化了美元信用下行的宏大叙事，为金价提供了更大弹性。 9月23日，降息预期持续被市场押注，叠加加密货币频繁受黑客攻击、美国政府停摆风险等因素催化， 金价继续脉冲走高，COMEX黄金期货价格再盘中一度触及3824.6美元，再创历史新高，尾盘小幅回 落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司，年内涨幅超43%，创历史最佳涨幅，截 至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨1.19%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨1.27%。 消息面上，美联储新任理事米兰首次发表政策演讲便抛出惊人观点，直言基准利率远高于合理水平，应 积极大幅下调。他认为降息空间近2个百分点，但这一激进观点使其在美联储内部陷入孤立。 ...

中信期货分析指出，当前降息预期仍是当下黄金的核心利多驱动。通胀温和叠加就业弱势，为美联储降 息行为扫清障碍，Fed Watch显示年内美联储降息预期扩张至3次，降息周期重启后，鸽派预期有望继续 主导黄金上行。当前美联储负责人换届在即，特朗普对美联储的控制力有望实质性增强，远期降息有想 象空间，美联储独立性风险的增加，也强化了美元信用下行的宏大叙事，为金价提供了更大弹性。 9月23日，降息预期持续被市场押注，叠加加密货币频繁受黑客攻击、美国政府停摆风险等因素催化， 金价继续脉冲走高，COMEX黄金期货价格再盘中一度触及3824.6美元，再创历史新高，尾盘小幅回 落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.58%报3796.9美元/盎司，年内涨幅超43%，创历史最佳涨幅，截 至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨1.19%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨1.27%。 消息面上，美联储新任理事米兰首次发表政策演讲便抛出惊人观点，直言基准利率远高于合理水平，应 积极大幅下调。他认为降息空间近2个百分点，但这一激进观点使其在美联储内部陷入孤立。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed movements with energy & chemicals declining [12][15]. - Silver and gold prices are expected to rise, with silver potentially challenging the 2011 all - time high in Q1 - Q2 and gold maintaining an upward trend in Q4 [21][26]. - Poly - silicon remains in a policy - waiting plateau, with prices expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be a supply surplus in Q4 [35][39]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities had mixed performance, with energy & chemicals weakening. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver, gold, and SCFIS(Europe), and the top three decliners were poly - silicon, LPG, and ferrosilicon. Among financial futures, IM and IF of equity indices increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and TL and T of CGB futures rose by 0.2% [12][13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On September 22, it increased by 3.8% to 10317 yuan/kg. Soft - landing expectations amplify short - term volatility. With the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and stable US fundamentals, silver prices are expected to rise and may challenge the 2011 high in Q1 - Q2. Attention should be paid to US economic data this week [20][21][22]. - **Gold**: On September 22, it increased by 2.0% to 846.5 yuan/gram. Prices may continue to fluctuate and gather momentum in the short term, and maintain an upward trend in Q4. Interest - rate cut expectations are the core bullish driver. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and the risk of its loss of independence may drive gold prices up. However, gold may face pressure if the trading shifts to "recovery", or gain new upside potential under certain negative scenarios [25][26][28]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Poly - silicon**: On September 22, it decreased by 3.6% to 50990 yuan/ton. It is in a policy - waiting plateau, and prices depend on policy signals. The new energy - consumption standard may accelerate the clearance of outdated capacities. Supply may decline slightly in Q4, and demand for the photovoltaic terminal is expected to be weak. There was a slight surplus in Q3, and it may expand in Q4 [35][37][39]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, providing strategic guidance for China - US relations. China and the US are in communication regarding a leaders' meeting at APEC [43]. 2.2 Industry News - Pan Gongsheng said further communication on the 15th Five - Year Plan and future financial reform will be conducted after the central government's unified deployment. - CSRC's Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A - share market value of 3.4 trillion yuan, and 269 enterprises are listed overseas. - As of the end of August, medium - and long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of tradable A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [44][45].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-23 重点资讯： 1）美国两党的短期支出议案均未能在参议院闯关成功，让国会避免 政府关门的努力陷入僵局。现有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月 底。美国总统特朗普发出警告，称联邦政府可能因为两党之间的僵局 而关门。 2）美国总统特朗普签署行政令，大幅改革H-1B签证项目，要求申请 人缴纳10万美元费用，否则不得入境。这一新规于美东时间9月21日 凌晨00:01生效。律师建议已经拿到H-1B签证的申请者在9月21日之前 回到美国，在美国境内的H-1B签证持有者近期尽量不要随便进出美 国。 特朗普宣布推出名为"特朗普金卡"的签证计划，向全球富人 出售美国居住权，个人申请者最高支付500万美元，可最长停留美国 270天，无需为美国境外收入纳税，企业可无限量为员工个人办理金 卡。特朗普表示，科技高管们会对金卡项目"非常满意"，因为这将 允许他们引入更多员工。美国商务部长卢特尼克预计，该签证计划将 为美国政府筹集超过1000亿美元。 3）特朗普周二将与阿拉伯国家领导人会晤，商讨加沙停火。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属再度冲高，上周靴子落地 ...

Group 1 - As of August 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,222 billion, an increase of $299 billion from the end of July, representing a growth rate of 0.91% [1] - The rise in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar index and the overall increase in global financial asset prices, supported by China's resilient economic performance [1] - China's gold reserves stood at 74.02 million ounces at the end of August, up from 73.96 million ounces at the end of July, marking the tenth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The price of spot gold surged to $3,600 on September 5, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of $976, or 37% [1] - Zheshang Securities anticipates that the financial attributes of gold will support its price increase in the short term, while it may serve as a safe haven in the medium term if other metals show a downturn [1] - Caixin Securities highlights that the recent dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor and inflation data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with ongoing global economic pressures and geopolitical risks maintaining gold's appeal as a hedge [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a surge on September 5, with significant movements in related ETFs and stocks, indicating strong market interest in both precious metals and base metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:00 AM, the base metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.38%, with Ganfeng Lithium increasing over 6%, and other stocks like Tengyuan Cobalt, Zhongmin Resources, Tianqi Lithium, and Shenghe Resources also showing gains [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.69%, while the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) saw a modest rise of 0.26% [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The gold stock ETF (159562) experienced a net inflow of 220 million yuan over the past five days, while the base metals ETF (516650) had a net inflow of 240 million yuan over the last ten trading days [1] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) recorded a net inflow of 4.427 million yuan in the last three days [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - According to Zheshang Securities, in the short term, most metals are rising due to ample liquidity, and the financial attributes of gold are expected to support its price increase [1] - In the medium term, if market sentiment shifts, gold is seen as a good safe haven, especially if other metals show a reversal in trends, enhancing gold's hedging value [1] - In the long term, the decline in the credibility of the US dollar is viewed as the main narrative for the current bull market in gold, with potential further declines expected due to upcoming policies from the Trump administration [1]