投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-19 美国就业市场疲软，贵⾦属跌幅收窄 周⼆贵⾦属价格回落后⼩幅反弹，调整幅度收窄。⽇内披露的美国周度⾸ 申、续请失业⾦⼈数维持⾼位，美国政府本次的超⻓停摆进⼀步推升劳动 ⼒市场下⾏⻛险，美股延续弱势，美债⼩幅⾛强，关注本周美国GDP及⾮ 农数据披露，⾦银短期或呈现震荡整理。 重点资讯： 1）美国劳工部显示，截至10月18日当周初请失业金人数为23.2万 人；续请失业金人数为195.7万人，较此前一周的续请失业金人数 194.7万人有所增长。同时，截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从21.8 万人上修至21.9万人，四周均值从23.75万人上修至23.775万人。截 至9月13日当周的续请失业金人数从192.6万人下修至191.6万人。美 国政府官网暂未公布截至9月27日、10月4日、10月11日、10月25日、 11月1日、11月8日当周的初请失业金数据，若政府未关门，6组数据 本应已公布。 2）据克利夫兰联储研究人员统计，美国企业10月份发出的即将大规 模裁员通知激增，创历史最高纪录之一。克利夫兰联储的初步数据显 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-18 12⽉降息概率延续⾛低，贵⾦属调整 周⼀贵⾦属价格延续调整，随着美联储发⾔继续转鹰，12⽉降息概率进⼀ 步⾛低，同时⽩银租赁利率掉头回落，现货紧张的情绪缓解，⾦银同步维 持调整格局。短期市场预计进⼊预期抢跑后的价格回归阶段，贵⾦属降波 调整持续，关注本周美国GDP及⾮农数据披露。 重点资讯： 1）随着美国政府"停摆"结束，各州正在重新启动"补充营养援助 计划"（SNAP）救济金的发放工作，但与此同时，"大而美"税收与 支出法案对SNAP体系的全面收紧也正式生效。国会预算办公室预计， 新规将使全美约30万人最终失去SNAP资格。 2）日本经济财政政策会议会议纪要显示，日本央行行长植田和男表 示，日本央行正在追求一个能确保平稳着陆的利率水平；潜在通胀率 仍低于目标水平，因此将维持宽松的货币政策立场；从以稳定方式实 现2%通胀目标的角度来看，长期维持过于宽松的货币政策存在风险。 3）美国11月纽约联储制造业指数为18.7，为2024年11月以来新高， 预期5.8，前值10.7；就业指数为6.6，前值6.2；新订单指数 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In October, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, exceeding the expected increase of 28,000 people. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 people to a decrease of 29,000 people. ADP reported that last month, U.S. employment rebounded from two months of weakness, but the scope of the rebound was not broad. Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth, while employers in professional business services, information, leisure, and the hotel industry laid off employees for the third consecutive month. In October, the year - on - year salary increase remained the same as the previous month, with 4.5% for those who did not change jobs and 6.7% for job - hoppers [2]. - The U.S. Treasury set the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion, in line with market expectations. It plans to issue $58 billion of 3 - year Treasury bonds on November 10, $42 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds on November 12, and $25 billion of 30 - year Treasury bonds on November 13, and keep the new issuance auction scale of 10 - year inflation - protected bonds (TIPS) in January at $21 billion. The U.S. Treasury expects the auction market to remain stable for at least the next few quarters and plans to increase the Treasury issuance scale by mid - 2026 [2]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest - lasting government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the fourth quarter will decline by 1 - 2 percentage points. The record - breaking "shutdown" has severely impacted people's livelihoods in areas such as U.S. aviation safety and food relief [3]. Price Logic - Wednesday witnessed a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant decline due to a decrease in risk aversion, with gold prices dropping sharply [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 22, spot gold prices fell over 2%, reaching a low of $4002 per ounce before recovering slightly to $4095 per ounce, marking a 0.68% decline [1] - On October 21, spot gold closed at $4130.41 per ounce, reflecting a 5.18% drop, the largest single-day decline in five years [3] - COMEX gold futures also fell by 4.94%, closing at $4144.10 per ounce [3] - Spot silver saw a significant drop of 8.7%, reaching $47.89 per ounce, the worst single-day performance since February 2021 [3] Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - Domestic gold jewelry prices were significantly reduced on October 22, with major brands like Lao Miao and Zhou Sheng Sheng lowering their prices by 83 yuan and 39 yuan per gram, respectively [3] - The gold mining sector experienced widespread declines, with companies like Zhaojin Gold hitting their daily limit down, and others like Western Gold and Hunan Gold also seeing substantial losses [3] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, indicating potential buying interest may limit further declines [4] - According to CITIC Futures, the current market may be entering a phase of adjustment after nearly two months of rising prices, with future focus on U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical changes [4] - The precious metals market is viewed as being in a bull market, with the decline of dollar credit being a core factor supporting long-term strategic value in gold and silver [4] Group 4: ETF Trends - The World Gold Council reported that in September 2025, global physical gold ETFs recorded the largest monthly inflow ever, contributing to a record total inflow of $26 billion in the third quarter [5] - As of the end of the third quarter, total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs reached a historic high of $472 billion, with total holdings increasing by 6% to 3838 tons [5]

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of the new fund manager, He Wei, emphasizes long-term stable returns over short-term gains, aiming to provide a steady holding experience for investors [2][4]. Investment Philosophy - The team led by He Wei focuses on "absolute return" principles, integrating this approach into their relative return public funds, prioritizing long-term stability [4][5]. - The investment strategy involves taking meaningful risks while maintaining a defensive posture during market bubbles, concentrating on stable blue-chip stocks to control drawdowns [4][5]. Fund Performance - The Silver Hua Hu Shen Stock Connect Fund, managed by He Wei, achieved a three-year unit net value growth rate of 24.08%, ranking in the top 3% of its category [5]. - The fund has consistently delivered excess returns of 3% to 12% annually from 2022 to 2024 [5]. Investment Framework - The investment framework includes selecting fundamentally driven stocks with safety margins, prioritizing win rates over potential returns, and avoiding overvalued and crowded trades [6]. - Emphasis is placed on macroeconomic trends and future developments, with a focus on risk-reward ratios and controlling drawdowns [6]. Market Outlook - He Wei expresses optimism about the long-term potential of the Chinese capital market, citing strong fundamentals in manufacturing, technology, and healthcare [10]. - The market is viewed as undervalued due to geopolitical tensions, with expectations of improved performance as foreign capital begins to enter [10]. Sector Focus - The long-term investment value in the non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted, with a favorable supply-demand structure for commodities like gold, copper, and aluminum [11]. - The financial sector, particularly bank stocks, is seen as having reasonable dividend yields and potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [11]. New Fund Launch - The upcoming Silver Hua Xin He Mixed Securities Investment Fund will feature a floating management fee structure, aiming to build a long-term relationship with investors through steady returns [9]. - This new fund will include investments in the Hong Kong stock market, which is perceived to offer attractive opportunities compared to A-shares [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold ETFs and spot gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - As of October 17, 2025, the gold ETF (159834) experienced a near 3% increase, currently up 1.43%, marking a potential five-day consecutive rise with a trading volume of 52.24 million yuan [1] - The gold ETF (159834) has seen a total net inflow of 83.21 million yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - On October 16, spot gold reached a high of 4,380.79 USD/ounce, while COMEX futures hit 4,392.0 USD/ounce, both setting new historical records [2] - The World Gold Council notes that overall gold holdings remain low, suggesting that the market is not yet saturated, as speculative positions have not reached historical peaks [2] - Short-term outlook indicates that most metals are rising due to ample liquidity, with gold's financial attributes likely to support further price increases [2]

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of a global interest rate cut and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to political risks, such as the U.S. government shutdown [3][4] - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for ten consecutive months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August [4] - The gold ETF fund has seen significant inflows, with a total of 3.886 billion yuan in net inflows over the past nine days, indicating strong investor interest [4] Market Performance - As of October 17, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has risen by 2.55%, marking a five-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 9.46 yuan [3] - Over the past week, the gold ETF fund has accumulated a 5.94% increase, and its average daily trading volume over the past month is 1.502 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3] Gold Price Dynamics - The international gold price has reached a historic high, surpassing $4,300 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 60% and a doubling of prices since the beginning of 2024 [3] - The current market conditions are characterized by ample liquidity and a favorable environment for gold, with expectations of continued price support from its financial attributes [4] Central Bank Activity - Global central bank demand for gold is projected to grow by 3% in 2025, reaching 4,760 tons, the highest level since 2011 [4] - The shift towards including "non-sovereign assets" in foreign exchange reserves is expected to benefit gold in the long term [4] Fund Performance - The gold ETF fund has reached a new high of 4.044 billion shares, reflecting strong investor confidence [4] - The fund's recent performance includes a peak single-day net inflow of 1.113 billion yuan, contributing to a robust average net inflow of 432 million yuan per day [4]

Group 1 - London silver prices experienced significant fluctuations, rebounding over 3% on October 15, reaching above $53 per ounce, with a reported price of $52.794 per ounce by 6:30 PM on the same day, marking a daily increase of over 2.6% [1] - The bullish trend in gold is a crucial factor for the overall rise in precious metals, with dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell contributing to rising asset prices and a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% [1] - The relationship between gold and silver prices is highlighted, with silver's price center following gold, and expectations of future economic growth driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts further enhancing silver's commodity attributes [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures reported that silver's recent decline was greater than that of gold, attributed to basis convergence and reduced speculative trading, alongside a strengthening dollar and profit-taking [2] - Precious metals are still considered to have strategic allocation value, with the sector in an annual bull market, driven by declining dollar credit [2] - Over the next 1-2 quarters, there remains potential for Fed rate cuts, with ongoing risks related to independence, while long-term factors such as U.S. debt expansion and rising uncertainty from de-globalization are expected to enhance the intrinsic value of physical currency [2]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices surged over 2% to reach $4100 per ounce, setting a new historical high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. government shutdown concerns and a decline in dollar credibility [1] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Most metals are experiencing price increases due to ample liquidity, with gold's financial attributes likely to support further price rises [1] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, as it damages U.S. credibility [1] Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - If market sentiment shifts, gold will serve as an excellent safe haven, especially if other metals show signs of reversal, enhancing gold's hedging value [1] - The recent small non-farm payroll report showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which is favorable for gold prices [1] Group 3: Long-term Trends - The decline in dollar credibility is the main narrative driving the current bull market in gold, with potential further declines expected due to new policies from the Trump administration [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3900-point mark, with a surge in precious metals and gold stocks, leading to multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The recent gold price rally is attributed to the international gold price breaking historical levels, expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and continuous gold purchases by the domestic central bank [1] - During the National Day holiday, gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold briefly exceeding $4060 per ounce, resulting in a cumulative increase of 4.45% during the holiday [1] Group 2 - The performance of individual stocks is supported by corporate earnings and resource control, with Western Gold achieving a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.01%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94% [2] - Western Gold has completed 60% of its annual mining target by mid-year and acquired 100% of Xinjiang Meisheng, expected to start production in the second half of 2025, with a production capacity of 4000 tons per day [2] - Sichuan Gold also reported strong performance, with a revenue of 442 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.92%, and a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 48.41% [2]