·东海期货：美元信用下行给黄金提供长周期支撑 ·五矿期货：黄金受到美元信用弱化所带来的利好因素提振 ·申银万国期货：黄金步入整理长期驱动仍然明确 ·澳洲联邦银行：金价料将在第四季度逐步升至每盎司3750美元 ·五矿期货表示，不论是从特朗普政府所推进的财政政策还是美债拍卖结果来看，黄金价格均受到美元 信用弱化所带来的利好因素提振。美国总统特朗普表示已非常接近敲定最终版本的税收法案，对于国会 的审议流程表示乐观。今日凌晨所进行的美国20年期国债拍卖投标倍数为2.46，低于前值的2.63。得标 利率为5.047%，大幅高于前值的4.81%。美债拍卖结果公布后美国国债收益率全线上升，但与此同时黄 金价格表现强势，这集中体现了美国财政赤字持续扩张的预期下，市场对于供给量在未来无序扩大的美 债配置意愿弱化，而黄金正是其最佳的替代资产。美国财政赤字水平在特朗普任期内将持续扩张，这对 于黄金中期价格走势形成利多因素，策略上建议逢低做多，沪金主力合约参考运行区间756-809元／ 克。 ·申银万国期货表示，金银继续反弹，美元表现疲弱。有关穆迪下调美国主权评级以及特朗普减税法案 推出等事件下，对美国债务问题和经济压力的担忧持续发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price rhythm of gold from the perspective of trading structure, highlighting the significant role of central bank gold purchases and investment demand in driving gold prices upward in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases and Demand - Central banks are projected to purchase approximately 1,044 tons of gold in 2024, becoming a crucial driver for gold price increases [1]. - The investment demand for gold is expected to reach 1,179 tons in 2024, indicating a shift in demand dynamics as prices rise [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Industrial Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption is anticipated to decline by 11% year-on-year in 2024, amounting to around 1,877 tons, due to high gold prices suppressing consumer demand [1]. - Industrial demand for gold remains low and stable, projected at only 326 tons in 2024 [1]. Group 3: Trading Structure and Market Dynamics - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF sizes, with domestic gold ETFs seeing a rise of over 50 billion in April, corresponding to a demand for 50-60 tons of physical gold [1]. - A surge in trading volume for A-share gold stocks has been observed, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm for gold investments and a crowded trading environment [1][2]. Group 4: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current rise in gold prices is driven by a decline in the credibility of the US dollar and a restructuring of the monetary system, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022 [2]. - Increasing uncertainty in the global investment landscape, exacerbated by issues such as the US debt ceiling and unpredictable government policies, is likely to continue pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2].

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，在经历2025年4月2日关税政策超预期导致的流动性冲击之 后，金价迅速冲高，伦敦金现短暂突破3500美元/盎司，而后由于特朗普关税态度出现反复，金价快速 回落至3300美元/盎司。展望未来，中长期金价趋势性上涨周期尚未结束，2025年金价的波动范围为 3209-3905美元/盎司。短期来看，如果特朗普关税态度显著缓和或与各国谈判出现显著进展，金价或将 高位震荡偏弱，而金价波动率则将下行。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 1)逆全球化背景下，美元信用的下行仍可能是中长期趋势：基于贸易逆差的领先指标，美元指数或将进 入较长的下行周期。另一方面，特朗普关税政策较难迅速解决美国财政赤字的问题，而未来的减税措施 落地还将导致美国财政赤字继续上行。而特朗普一系列政策引发美元储备低位被动摇，或导致中长期全 球资金进一步流出美元资产，美元信用或将持续下行。 2)特朗普政策的不确定性仍然偏高：特朗普本轮关税政策不同于2018年，整体的力度和范围大幅上升， 并且后续的关税谈判或将趋势性提高政策不确定性，另外减税等需要国会支持的政策将更难快速通过。 在此期间，金价或仍受到高政策不确定性中枢的支撑。3 ...