Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group (00960) is navigating the real estate downturn by adopting a differentiated "long-termism" approach, focusing on high-quality development and steady growth across multiple business channels [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, Longfor Group's operating revenue was approximately 14.15 billion yuan (including tax), with operational business revenue around 7.5 billion yuan and service business revenue about 6.65 billion yuan, all showing varying levels of growth [1] - Longfor Group achieved a net profit of 10.401 billion yuan for shareholders in 2024, distinguishing itself as one of the few companies to report profitability amid significant losses in the industry [1] - The contribution of operational business to total revenue increased to 21% in 2024, becoming a major source of income and profit for Longfor [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - Longfor's operational and service business segments are seen as the core of future growth, with management aiming to establish absolute competitive advantages in four key areas [3] - The commercial segment of Longfor's operational business has introduced a new tiered product system, showcasing differentiated project advantages through "city-level, regional-level, and community-level" classifications [3] Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Longfor Commercial has successfully launched several high-traffic commercial cases, such as the Nanning Qingxiu Tianjie, which opened in May 2025 and attracted over 680,000 visitors in its first three days, generating 27.9 million yuan in revenue [5] - The "Tianjie Huansheng Festival" event during the Dragon Boat Festival saw cumulative revenue of 1.96 billion yuan over four days, with daily revenue and foot traffic increasing by 49.7% and 24.9% year-on-year, respectively [5] Group 4: Future Expansion Plans - Longfor plans to open around 10 new projects in major first- and second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Wuhan in the second half of 2025, while also continuing upgrades to existing projects [6] - As of the first half of 2025, Longfor Commercial maintained a high occupancy rate of 96.6%, with revenue and daily foot traffic both increasing by over 20% and 9% year-on-year, respectively [8] Group 5: Financial Health - Longfor Group has successfully repaid over 9 billion yuan in debts this year, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining healthy finances to support its business operations [8] - The company has achieved a balanced structure across its three main business segments—development, operation, and service—contributing to its resilience and stable profit margins [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on debt management and operational performance, with a clear plan for debt repayment by 2025, aiming to reduce interest-bearing liabilities to approximately 140 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Debt Management - The company has effectively reduced interest-bearing liabilities by over 30 billion yuan in the past two years, with a projected decrease to 176.3 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 9% [2]. - The net debt ratio stands at 52%, with an asset-liability ratio of 57% after excluding advance receipts [2]. - The company is transitioning its debt structure by replacing short-term credit bonds with long-term financing from operational properties, leading to a financing cost reduction of 0.24 percentage points to 4.0%, the lowest in five years [2]. Operational Performance - The company’s operational business revenue reached 11.02 billion yuan from January to May, showing continuous growth year-on-year [1]. - The operational and service revenue is projected to be 26.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7%, contributing 70% to the gross profit [3]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction while enhancing its operational business to support overall profitability, with commercial revenue growth of approximately 20% and daily customer traffic growth exceeding 25% [3]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 7.92 billion yuan, 8.15 billion yuan, and 8.51 billion yuan respectively, down from an earlier estimate of 9.89 billion yuan for 2025 [3]. - A price-to-earnings (PE) valuation of 8x is assigned for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 10.24 HKD [3].