Core Insights - The new policies have had a limited impact on the second-hand housing market compared to new homes, with overall transaction volumes showing little change before and after the policy implementation [1][18]. Group 1: New Housing Market Performance - After the implementation of new policies in August and September 2025, weekly transaction volumes for new homes in Beijing and Shanghai initially increased, while Shenzhen's new home sales remained stable, showing no significant change compared to pre-policy levels [4][5]. - In October, Shanghai's weekly transaction volume decreased by 17% compared to September, and was down 8% compared to the average weekly volume from July. Beijing's market remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of 3% from September and a minor decrease of 1% from July. Shenzhen maintained its momentum from September, with transaction volumes remaining flat compared to the previous month, reflecting a 25% increase from August [5][7]. Group 2: Project Absorption Rates - The absorption rates for new projects in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have shown a downward trend post-policy implementation, with Shanghai and Shenzhen's rates declining to 36% and 21% respectively by late October. In contrast, Beijing experienced a temporary spike in absorption rates due to the launch of desirable projects in September [8][9]. Group 3: Second-Hand Housing Market Dynamics - The impact of the new policies on the second-hand housing market has been more pronounced, with weekly transaction volumes in October showing a decline compared to September across Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. This decline indicates a return to levels seen before the new policies were enacted [13][14]. - Specifically, the average weekly transaction volumes for second-hand homes in October were down 31% in Beijing, 16% in Shanghai, and 15% in Shenzhen compared to September [16][18]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market for new homes in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai has seen some short-term benefits from the new policies, but the long-term effects have not met expectations, with transaction volumes reverting to pre-policy levels by October. The second-hand market is particularly struggling, with prices continuing to decline and a trend of price adjustments for less desirable properties [18].

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market has shown a significant recovery in September, with new residential sales increasing by 21% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions rose by 19% both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][2] - The supply of new homes in Beijing doubled in September compared to August, with over 3,000 new units entering the market, marking a turnaround from previous months of low supply [2][3] - High-demand projects, particularly in key areas, have driven market activity, with notable sales figures reported for several new developments [3][6] Supply Dynamics - The supply surge in September was a key driver for the market, with 26 pre-sale permits issued, including 17 for residential projects, compared to only 12 in August [2][4] - Major new projects such as Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan and Puyue have entered the market, contributing to the increased supply and market enthusiasm [2][3] Sales Performance - Hot projects have significantly boosted sales, with Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan achieving sales of 573 units worth 4.7 billion yuan on its opening day, and total sales reaching approximately 3.857 billion yuan by mid-October [3][6] - Other projects like Beijing Jianguo Jiatang Yuxi and Longhu Chenhan also reported strong sales figures, indicating a robust demand for new homes [3][6] Market Outlook - The "Silver October" is expected to continue the positive trend from September, with high-end projects performing well and ongoing demand for improved housing options [5][7] - The introduction of quality land parcels in the fourth quarter is anticipated to further support the market, with industry experts predicting an increase in new home sales [7][8]