1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Credit demand is generally weak, social financing growth is slowing down, the stock market is in a phase of consolidation, M1 growth is pushed up by base effects and resident deposit re - flows while M2 growth is declining, and the bond market is expected to repair with fluctuations. It is recommended to actively allocate bonds with a duration strategy, and use a dumbbell - shaped allocation to increase the allocation of high - elasticity bond varieties such as 30 - year treasury bonds, 10 - year CDB bonds, and 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Credit Demand - In September, new credit was 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. From January to September, new credit was 14.8 trillion yuan, the lowest level in the past six years. Except for short - term corporate loans and medium - and long - term resident loans, short - term resident loans, long - term corporate loans, and bill financing all decreased year - on - year to varying degrees [1][8] - In September, corporate credit increased by 1.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 270 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term corporate loans increased by 910 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 50 billion yuan; short - term corporate loans increased by 710 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 250 billion yuan; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 471.2 billion yuan [1][8] - In September, resident loans increased by 389 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 111 billion yuan. Medium - and long - term resident loans increased by 20 billion yuan year - on - year to 250 billion yuan, and short - term resident loans decreased by 127.9 billion yuan year - on - year to 142.1 billion yuan. High - frequency data shows that current real - estate sales are still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and social terminal demand is weak [1][8] Social Financing - In September, new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 229.8 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the social financing growth rate may drop to about 8.2% [2][10] - In September, government bond issuance was stable, with a new scale of 1.19 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 178.6 billion yuan. Due to the high - base effect of last year's fiscal back - loading, there was still a year - on - year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan [2][10] Deposit and M1, M2 - In September, new deposits were 2.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.53 trillion yuan. Resident deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 760 billion yuan, while non - bank deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97 trillion yuan. Fiscal deposits decreased by 604.2 billion yuan year - on - year, supplementing liquidity [3][16] - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 continued to rise from 6.0% to 7.2%, partly due to the low - base effect and possibly related to resident deposit re - flows. The two - year compound growth rate of M1 in September was 1.82%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month [4][13] Bond Market - It is expected that the bond market will repair with fluctuations. It is recommended to actively allocate bonds, with a duration strategy being more advantageous. A dumbbell - shaped allocation should be used to increase the allocation of high - elasticity bond varieties such as 30 - year treasury bonds, 10 - year CDB bonds, and 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds. Interest rates are expected to enter a new downward phase [5][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Instead of predicting, it's better to respond. Different response strategies should be formulated based on different policy scenarios in the China-US trade conflict [1][14] - The current conflict is closer to the first scenario, but the future scenario evolution is uncertain. Specific response measures should be taken according to the actual development of the economic and trade conflict [3][16] - For interest rates, the variable lies in the downward space rather than the direction. 30-year treasury bonds, 10-year China Development Bank bonds, and 5-year secondary perpetual bonds are expected to benefit from both the overall interest rate decline and the spread contraction, and are more worthy of allocation [4][17] - It is recommended to actively allocate using a barbell strategy, increasing the allocation of high-elasticity varieties such as 30-year treasury bonds, 10-year China Development Bank bonds, and 5-year secondary perpetual bonds [24] Summary by Related Catalogs China-US Trade Conflict Situation - Recently, the China-US economic and trade conflict has escalated again, leading to significant fluctuations in the global capital market. On October 10, the Nasdaq index fell 3.56%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 6.1% [1][8] - Similar to the situation in early April, bond interest rates have also significantly declined. On October 11, interest rates across all maturities generally declined significantly, with the 30-year treasury bond dropping 5.01bps and the 10-year treasury bond dropping 2.54bps compared to the previous day [1][8] - The current China-US economic and trade conflict is significantly less intense than in early April this year, in terms of both the magnitude of tariff implementation and the scope involved [13] Different Scenarios of China-US Trade Conflict and Their Impact on the Bond Market - **Scenario 1**: The US exerts extreme pressure but the measures are not implemented or have limited impact, and China remains restrained. The impact on the market is relatively limited. The significant decline of 3 - 5bps in long-term interest rates on October 11 may have already reflected the policy impact, and then the bond market will return to being dominated by fundamentals and the asset shortage, with interest rates showing a fluctuating downward trend [14] - **Scenario 2**: The US significantly implements tariff increases and other policies, and China conducts effective countermeasures. The conflict intensifies, and domestic policies remain on the sidelines in the short term. In this case, long-term interest rates are expected to decline by about 10 - 20bps, similar to the decline in April [2][15] - **Scenario 3**: The China-US trade conflict escalates, and China promptly responds with active macro policies, especially loose monetary policies. Interest rates are expected to decline more significantly, and long-term interest rates may hit new lows [2][15] Bond Investment Recommendations - 30-year treasury bonds, 10-year China Development Bank bonds, and 5-year secondary perpetual bonds are expected to benefit from both the overall interest rate decline and the spread contraction, and are more worthy of allocation [4][17] - It is recommended to use a barbell strategy, maintaining a duration above neutral and actively increasing the allocation of high-elasticity varieties such as 30-year treasury bonds, 10-year China Development Bank bonds, and 5-year secondary perpetual bonds [24]

Group 1 - The current 30-year government bond yield is around 2.05%, with a potential space of about 5 basis points for a small position in a rebound, focusing on central bank support [1] - For long-end trading, attention should be on bonds like 25T5 and 230023, with a preference for 4-5 year government bonds and avoiding 6Y and 8-9Y government development bonds [1] - The 10-year government bond spread is currently around 3 basis points, indicating a need for a bond switch as the excess value of new 10-year bonds is not strong [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in terms of drawdown control during the recent bond market adjustment, with a net value stability and controlled drawdown [2] - The table provided shows various ETFs with their respective performance metrics, highlighting the Ping An ETF's 23.55% return over the past week and a 3.89% return over the past year [2] - Other ETFs listed show varying performance, with some experiencing significant drawdowns, indicating a diverse range of investment outcomes in the bond market [2]