热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 当颠覆世界秩序并向最亲密的盟友加征关税时，理当发生的情况是：波动加剧、通胀上升，企业投资、 股价与增长出现回调。 上周末，特朗普威胁对英国、法国、德国及其他几个欧洲国家加征关税，原因是这些国家反对他要求丹 麦将格陵兰岛"移交"给美国的主张。美国股指期货应声下跌，10年期美债期货的隐含收益率上升，金价 跳涨，而美元兑欧元和英镑走低。然而，即便投资者试图为这场"灾难"定价，他们所赋予的概率也微乎 其微。 根据金融理论，投资者本应为这种极端结果估算一个发生概率。特朗普称其不断升级的关税旨在迫使丹 麦出售格陵兰岛——但这可能招致欧洲的贸易报复，并破坏北约团结。 长期前景可能是，俄罗斯将利用一个更衰弱且分裂的西方；或者，随着欧洲重整军备，最终崛起成为新 的全球第三极力量。无论哪种情况，对投资者都可能非常不利。 标普500指数期货隔夜下跌略超1%，与欧洲股市跌幅相似，黄金涨幅则低于2%。这几乎算不上是投资 者在为灾难做准备的迹象：自1964年以来，股市平均每年出现21次同等幅度的下跌；自1979年以来，黄 金期货年均出现15次同等幅度的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is expected to raise the U.S. fiscal deficit, alongside ongoing uncertainties from global tariff conflicts initiated by the Trump administration [1][9]. Treasury Yield Summary - The 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while the 20-year yield is also nearing this threshold, and the 10-year yield is close to 4.5% [2][3]. - Shorter-term Treasury yields are relatively stable, with the 1-year yield exceeding 4% and the 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year yields fluctuating around 3.9% [3]. - Recent fluctuations in Treasury yields have led to corresponding changes in long-term Treasury futures prices, with the 10-year futures price dropping from nearly $112 to $110.77 [4]. Market Reactions to Legislation - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, which raises the federal debt ceiling to $5 trillion and includes tax cuts to stimulate economic growth, has raised concerns about increased Treasury supply, potentially leading to higher yields [9]. - The anticipated net issuance of Treasury securities is projected to be around $1 trillion in the third quarter, with refinancing pressures easing compared to the previous quarter [9]. Tariff Concerns - The announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025, has added to market anxieties, contributing to the volatility in Treasury yields [10]. - Despite these concerns, the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries is supported by the market's recognition of U.S. creditworthiness and the expected downward trend in interest rates [10].

Group 1 - The decision by President Donald Trump to delay higher tariffs on the EU has significantly boosted currencies closely tied to global trade, causing the dollar to drop to its lowest level in nearly two years against a basket of currencies [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.4%, nearing its lowest level since July 2023, following Trump's announcement to extend the deadline for the 50% tariffs on the EU to July 9 [1] - The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar saw substantial gains, with the Australian dollar rising to 0.6537 USD and the New Zealand dollar reaching 0.6032 USD, both at their highest levels since November of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The dollar index has cumulatively declined over 7% since 2025, erasing all gains from the previous year, which recorded the largest annual increase since 2015 [1] - Concerns over tariffs and the extension of tax cuts during Trump's first term have led to growing worries about the U.S. government's fiscal situation, resulting in a weakening demand for the dollar [1] - The delay in EU tariffs has provided support to G10 and emerging market currencies, with the euro rising by 0.5% against the dollar, reaching its highest level since April [1] Group 3 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury futures have declined, indicating that yields are expected to rise by more than three basis points, although global Treasury spot trading is paused due to a U.S. holiday [3]