Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced the central exchange rates of the Renminbi against various currencies as of January 5, indicating the current market valuation of the Renminbi against major global currencies [1] Currency Exchange Rates - The central exchange rate for 100 US dollars is set at 702.3 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 euros is set at 820.27 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Japanese yen is set at 4.4660 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Hong Kong dollars is set at 90.141 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 British pounds is set at 941.68 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Australian dollars is set at 468.17 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 New Zealand dollars is set at 403.07 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Singapore dollars is set at 544.28 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Swiss francs is set at 883.42 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Canadian dollars is set at 509.45 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 114.35 Macanese Patacas [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 57.882 Malaysian Ringgits [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 1149.24 Russian Rubles [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 235.39 South African Rand [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 20648 South Korean Won [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 52.46 UAE Dirhams [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 53.568 Saudi Riyals [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 4678.37 Hungarian Forints [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 51.332 Polish Zlotys [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 91.12 Danish Krone [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 131.77 Swedish Krona [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 143.81 Norwegian Krone [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 614.53 Turkish Lira [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 255.57 Mexican Pesos [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 450.08 Thai Baht [1]

智通财经APP注意到，在经历了去年对大多数货币的颓势后，美元在周五迎来了疲软的2026年开局；与 此同时，由于交易员正在等待经济数据以预测各国央行今年的利率走向，日元在10个月低点附近企稳。 去年，美国与其他经济体之间利差的缩小给市场蒙上了阴影，导致大多数货币对美元大幅上涨，唯独日 元是个例外。对美国财政赤字、全球贸易战以及美联储独立性的担忧重创了美元，而这些问题很可能将 持续到2026年。 在今年的第一个交易日，欧元兑美元汇率稳定在 1.1752 美元，去年该货币飙升了 13.5%；英镑兑美元 最后报 1.3473 美元，继 2025 年上涨 7.7% 后保持稳定。欧元和英镑均创下自 2017 年以来的最大年度涨 幅。 由于日本和中国市场周五休市，价格波动不大。 美元主导地位削弱 衡量美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数报 98.186。该指数在 2025 年录得 9.4% 的跌幅，为八年来最 大年度跌幅。 Capital.com 高级市场分析师 Kyle Rodda 表示："我们已经看到了美元霸权的巅峰。尽管如此，在过去的 二十年里，美元指数从未出现过连续两年的下跌。""我认为美元崩溃的说法被夸大了，美国经济 ...

2025年度回顾 2025年美元指数全年重挫9.5%，创八年来最差表现。作为全球储备货币，美元走势不仅影响国际金融市场，也与每个人的海外消费、留学、旅游等密切 相关。本文将深入分析美元下跌的原因，并展望2026年非美货币的发展趋势。 Part.01美元下跌原因分析 2025年美元下跌主要源于两大因素：美联储政策转向与政治不确定性。美联储在2025年启动降息周期，市场预期2026年将进一步降息两次，超出美联储自 身预测次数。降息导致美元资产吸引力下降，投资者纷纷转向其他高收益货币。 政治层面，特朗普宣布将于2026年1月提名新美联储主席，现任主席鲍威尔任期将于5月结束。市场担忧特朗普提名可能影响美联储独立性，加剧了美元跌 势。美国商品期货交易委员会数据显示，2025年4月以来市场维持美元净空头头寸，反映投资者对美元前景的悲观预期。 图 | 2025年美元指数走势 Part.02非美货币表现 2025年非美货币表现分化显著，欧系货币与商品货币涨幅居前。欧元全年上涨13.5%，英镑上涨7.6%，均创八年来最佳表现。澳元飙升超8%，为2020年以 来最高涨幅。新西兰元上涨3.4%，终结连续四年跌势。 日元表现不及预期 ...

2025年外汇市场以美元的显著疲软收官，该货币正遭遇自2017年以来最大的年度跌幅。 最新的市场动态显示，美元指数全年重挫9.5%，创下八年来最差表现。在2025年的最后一个交易日，美元指数徘徊在98.228附近，但整体下行趋 势难以逆转。在美元走弱的背景下，非美货币全线反弹，欧元和英镑分别以13.5%和7.6%的年度涨幅领跑，均创下八年来的最佳年度表现。 市场对美联储独立性的担忧进一步加剧了美元的压力。随着特朗普宣布计划于明年1月公布新任美联储主席提名人选，以接替将于5月任期届满的 杰罗姆·鲍威尔，政策不确定性显著上升。据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，自今年4月以来，市场始终维持美元净空头头寸，显示 出投资者对美元前景的持续悲观情绪。 展望2026年，分析人士普遍认为美元的疲软态势可能会延续。高盛策略师指出，在全球经济稳健增长、美联储降息而其他央行按兵不动的背景 下，美元大概率将继续走弱。这不仅支撑了欧元和英镑的强势，也为新兴市场货币提供了喘息空间。 美元前景阴云密布 美元在2025年的颓势主要源于宏观政策与政治环境的双重挤压。除降息周期开启外，市场对美国财政赤字扩大以及特朗普关税政策的担忧挥 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura International indicates that the euro is likely to benefit from traders digesting the possibility of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) next year, although the euro's rise may not exceed the 1.20 USD level due to limited potential increases in rates [1][2]. Group 1 - The basic expectation is that the ECB will maintain interest rates unchanged until 2026, but if the market begins to price in a more hawkish outlook, the euro will clearly benefit [2]. - The euro/USD pair has risen approximately 1% this week, driven by hawkish comments from ECB official Isabel Schnabel, leading traders to bet on a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike next year [2]. - There is potential for the euro to rise, but reaching levels significantly above 1.20 may require a more structural shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2 - Other currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona have also benefited to varying degrees from the expectations of interest rate hikes [2].

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the strong performance of the US dollar, which saw a 0.5% increase in the spot index, marking its best single-day performance since September 25 [1] - The rebound in the dollar is primarily driven by market adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction, particularly due to changes in the release schedule of key US economic data [2][4] - The delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll report to December 16, along with the merging of October data into November, creates uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's policy-making process [3][5] Group 2 - Market participants now believe that the likelihood of an interest rate adjustment in December has significantly decreased, as there is insufficient data to justify such a move [5][8] - Analysts from major banks, including Bank of America and Wells Fargo, suggest that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates has increased due to the lack of timely economic data [5][8] - The collective weakness of non-US currencies further highlights the strength of the dollar, with the British pound experiencing a notable decline of 0.7% and other currencies like the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen also under pressure [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar has appreciated, reaching a value of 0.5690 USD, with an increase of 0.64% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar is set to become the first major developed market currency to erase its gains from early 2023 by 2025, primarily due to aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand amid a weak economic backdrop [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The New Zealand dollar is the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies in 2025, with its appreciation against the US dollar shrinking from over 9% to nearly 1% [1] - The currency has faced pressure due to rising unemployment and the economy nearing its second recession in two years [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Since July of the previous year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has reduced the official cash rate by three percentage points [1] - Traders anticipate two more rate cuts by mid-2026 [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - According to Westpac Banking Corporation strategist Imre Speizer, the risks for the New Zealand dollar remain skewed to the downside [1] - Upcoming data releases, including retail spending and inflation expectations, are expected to influence market sentiment, which has led to a slight downward adjustment in the pricing of the official cash rate [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen stabilized and rebounded against the US dollar after the new finance minister indicated that the government is closely monitoring foreign exchange market fluctuations [1][2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a near nine-month low before slightly rebounding, hovering around 154.20, with Tokyo's core CPI for October rising 2.8% year-on-year, indicating inflation remains above target levels [2] - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point in political discussions, with a 4% decline against the dollar over the past month, marking the worst monthly performance since July [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 91.1% to 74.7% [3] - The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.0989%, close to a three-week high, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day's close [3] - Other currencies showed mixed performance, with the euro at 1.1572 against the dollar, while the British pound hovered around 1.31440 amid political pressure, and both the Australian and New Zealand dollars experienced declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the US dollar amidst global market volatility driven by tech stock earnings and unclear central bank policies, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards safer assets like the dollar [1][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar index stabilized at 99.5, reaching a three-month high due to risk-averse sentiment following a decline in US stocks [1]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path have shifted, with traders reducing bets on a rate cut in December, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets [6][8]. - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.1%, reflecting the changing market expectations and increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen stabilized after reaching a near nine-month low, supported by comments from the new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who indicated a heightened monitoring of foreign exchange trends [3][7]. - Despite a slight rebound, the yen has depreciated by 4% against the dollar over the past month, marking its worst monthly performance since July [3]. - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and complicating the Bank of Japan's position on maintaining interest rates [7]. Group 3: Other Major Currencies - The euro appreciated to 1.156 against the dollar, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting [11]. - The British pound remained stable at 1.31555 against the dollar, amid political pressures faced by the UK Chancellor [15]. - Commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed weakness, with the Australian dollar down 0.1% to 0.65495 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.2% to 0.57325, reflecting global risk aversion [15].