【导读】新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.00% 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！来一起关注海外市场降息情况。 在7月经济出现停滞迹象后， 新西兰 再度启动宽松周期。 8月20日，新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.00%，符合市场预期。 自2024年8月以来，新西兰联储已将利率下调了250个基点，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏，通胀率在1%至3%的目标区间内，为政策制定者提 供了降息的空间。 决议显示，委员会投票决定将利率下调25个基点或50个基点，最终以4票对2票的多数同意将利率降低25个基点至3%。 货币政策声明提到，随着经济中存在闲置产能、国内通胀压力下降，预计到2026年年中，整体通胀将回落至约2%的目标中点。 消息公布后，新西兰 元兑美元短线 跳水，跌幅达1.2%。 新西兰两年期掉期利率跌近3%，为2022年初以来的最低水平。 此前 机构调查的23位经济学家中，有22位 预计 新西兰联储政策委员会将于周三下调官方现金利率25个基点至3%，仅1 位预测利率不会 变化。 此次 降息使 得新西兰 基准利率降至 近 三年来的低点。新西兰联储上月维持利率不变，以评估通胀的上升，政策制定者把注意力转向疲弱 的经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of the Federal Reserve from a hawkish to a dovish approach, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact the foreign exchange market and create opportunities for non-USD currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a high interest rate environment aimed at controlling inflation to signaling potential interest rate cuts, with futures markets indicating nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and possibly two 25 basis point cuts within the year [2][5]. - The shift from hawkish to dovish policy is expected to weaken the dollar's high-interest rate advantage, leading to downward pressure on its value [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Non-USD Currencies - Major non-USD currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen are gaining momentum against the dollar as the latter's appeal diminishes [3][4]. - Emerging market currencies are experiencing relief as financing pressures ease alongside the weakening dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in their exchange rates [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1 involves trend-following by focusing on long positions in major non-USD currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with specific technical levels identified for entry and exit [5][6]. - Strategy 2 suggests a carry trade approach, where traders go long on high-yield currencies (e.g., Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar) while shorting currencies expected to face rate cuts [7]. - Strategy 3 emphasizes volatility trading around key economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements, which are likely to cause significant price movements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - The article highlights that a weak dollar does not guarantee a linear decline, as market corrections and geopolitical events may lead to temporary rebounds [11]. - It stresses the importance of independent assessments of currency strength based on central bank policies and economic fundamentals, along with strict risk management practices [11].

Economic Indicators - US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1%[1] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April[1] - New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual increase rose to 2.7%, slightly above the previous value of 2.5% but below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations[2] - There is an increased probability of a 0.25% rate cut in August, rising from approximately 60% to over 80% following the inflation data release[2] Currency Outlook - New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1, indicating a recovery in the economy[3] - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to target 0.61 against the US dollar, as the upward momentum of the US dollar weakens[3]

Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1%[1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April[1] - New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual increase rose to 2.7%, slightly above the previous value of 2.5% but below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations[2] - There is an increased probability of a 0.25% rate cut in August, rising from approximately 60% to over 80% following the inflation data release[2] Currency Outlook - New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1, indicating a recovery in the economy, with contributions from primary industries, goods production, and services[3] - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to target 0.61 against the U.S. dollar, as the upward momentum of the U.S. dollar weakens[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates and the implications of new tariffs announced by the U.S. President Donald Trump, highlighting the differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [1]. Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen decreased by nearly 0.2%, closing at 146.32 yen, with a trading range of 146.25 to 147.18 yen during the day [1]. - The euro remained stable against the U.S. dollar, reported at 1.1722, while the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc fell by 0.2% [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar increased by 0.2% [1]. - The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar rose by 0.1%, following the New Zealand central bank's decision to maintain the interest rate at 3.25% [1]. Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced a new round of tariffs that will be imposed in August on imported goods from trade partners that have not reached an agreement with the U.S. [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting revealed that officials have differing expectations regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs, which contributes to the divergence in their outlook on interest rates [1].

Core Insights - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a complex technical landscape as of July 2, 2025, with the US dollar index showing volatility influenced by multiple factors [1] - The Japanese yen is under pressure against the US dollar, reaching critical levels not seen in years [1] - Emerging market currencies are seeking balance amid adjustments in risk appetite [1] Group 1: USD and JPY Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown distinct technical characteristics, hitting a two-week low of 143.44 on July 1 before rebounding to around 143.7 [3] - The trading range for USD/JPY is frequently oscillating between 143.30 and 144.06, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears at this price level [3] - A notable correction of approximately 1.6% occurred from 145.67 to 143.30, highlighting a clear technical correction demand in the market [3] Group 2: Euro and Commodity Currency Analysis - Eurozone currencies are exhibiting relatively stable technical features, with major currencies like the euro and pound operating within their respective technical ranges [4] - The support and resistance levels for these currencies are primarily influenced by regional economic data and policy expectations [4] - Commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar are significantly affected by fluctuations in commodity prices, reflecting special patterns related to commodity price cycles [4]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro is consolidating near the weekly high above 1.1600 against the US Dollar [1] - The British Pound is stabilizing around 1.3600 amid the latest rally [1] - The Japanese Yen continues its strong rebound from the lowest point since May 13, supported by ongoing buying pressure [1] - The Australian Dollar is recovering towards 0.6500 due to improved global risk sentiment [1] - The New Zealand Dollar has risen over 1%, rebounding approximately 2.5% from Monday's low [1] - The US Dollar is weakening against the Canadian Dollar [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [2] - Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee have indicated support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Germany's June manufacturing PMI reached a 34-month high, with services and composite PMIs also hitting 3-month highs [3] - France's June manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-month low, with services and composite PMIs at 2-month lows [3] - The German Industrial Association forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the German economy by 2025, revised from a previous estimate of 0.1% contraction [3] - ECB officials have suggested potential rate cuts despite oil market volatility, with Lagarde noting a generally weak economic outlook [3] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in October [4] - Japanese officials support a revised bond issuance plan [5] - The Prime Minister aims to increase Japan's GDP from 400 trillion yen to 1000 trillion yen by 2040, targeting a real wage growth rate of 1% or more [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD maintains strong momentum, having broken the significant resistance level at 1.3520, with targets at 1.3600 and 1.3655 [6] - The USD/JPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average support, testing the critical support range of 145.40-145.00 [6] - The US Dollar Index remains below key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend, but a short-term breakout above the 50-day moving average could trigger a short-covering rally [6]

Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain the largest shadow over the market, with the conflict between Israel and Iran escalating due to U.S. intervention, adding unpredictable variables to the situation [1] - The direct involvement of the U.S. has fundamentally changed the nature and scale of the conflict, potentially leading to significant sell-offs in risk assets, surges in safe-haven assets, and volatility in energy prices [1] - Oil prices have retreated after hitting key resistance levels, but geopolitical premiums persist, with any escalation in conflict likely to rapidly increase oil prices, impacting global inflation and consumer spending [1] Economic Data - The release of high-quality economic data this week, although limited in quantity, is expected to significantly influence market sentiment [2] - The U.S. first-quarter GDP data is anticipated to show an annualized negative growth of -0.2%, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and potentially igniting discussions about a recession [2] - The market is assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating potential negative effects of trade policy on economic activity [3] Inflation Indicators - The core PCE data for May, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a month-over-month increase of +0.1%, which is relatively mild [3] - If the data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while a surprise increase could extinguish hopes for rate cuts and lead to significant market adjustments [3] - CPI data from Canada, Australia, and Japan will also provide insights into their respective central banks' policy paths and influence currency performance [3] Central Bank Communications - The speeches of major central bank officials this week are a significant focus for the market [4] - Most central banks have adopted a cautious stance amid uncertain global economic prospects and persistent inflation, with the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cutting rates due to domestic economic pressures [4] - Key speeches from ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, and others will provide the latest assessments of the economic situation, inflation outlook, and future policy directions [4] Market Reactions - The resurgence of the U.S. dollar is noteworthy, as it often gains favor as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global uncertainty [5] - If geopolitical risks continue to escalate or economic data indicates more challenges for the global economy, demand for the dollar as a safe haven may further support its strength [5] - The Swiss franc has come under pressure following the SNB's rate cut, complicating its future trajectory [5] Overall Market Environment - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, potential economic data impacts, and central bank signals [6] - Investors need to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly any indications of U.S. positions, as well as the interpretation of U.S. GDP and PCE data for insights into economic direction and inflation pressures [6] - Central bank leaders' speeches will provide a window into future monetary policy paths, with a need for investors to maintain cash positions and utilize hedging tools to manage potential tail risks [6]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index has declined for the second consecutive day, trading around 98.59, with expectations for the largest weekly gain in over a month due to safe-haven demand from Middle East conflicts [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate targets for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, indicating significant inflation risks [1] - Investor sentiment shows a strong preference for strategic dollar short positions, with the total dollar short positions nearing $40 billion, close to historical records [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Dynamics - The euro has rebounded above the key level of 1.15 against the dollar, although its upward movement may be limited due to potential US intervention in the Middle East [5] - Japanese inflation data has exceeded expectations, supporting further rate hike expectations, which has benefited the yen [6] - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce long-term bond issuance, with a reduction of 1.8 trillion yen in 20-year bonds, indicating a tightening fiscal policy [6] Group 3: Other Currency Movements - The Swiss franc is expected to record its largest weekly decline since mid-April due to the Swiss National Bank's rate cut to 0% [7] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points, leading to a decline of over 1% in the Norwegian krone against the dollar [8] - Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have seen a slight increase of 0.1% this week [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].