这波反弹行情，核心驱动力来自市场对美联储后续政策走向的预期调整。 美元此次走强，直接与美国关键经济数据的发布安排变动有关。 美国劳工统计局最新公告显示，11月非农就业报告将推迟至12月16日发布。这个时间点，比美联储原定的议息会议滞后了 近一周。 更关键的是，10月的非农就业报告不会单独发布，相关数据将合并计入11月的统计结果中。 对美联储来说，非农就业数据是制定货币政策的重要参考。它能直观反映美国就业市场活力，以及整体经济的运行态势。 而10月、11月这两份核心数据，要么延迟发布，要么合并统计。这意味着，美联储在召开12月议息会议时，将缺少这两份 关键依据，政策制定的信息基础变得不够充分。 周三的外汇市场交易中，美元是备受关注的核心品种。 当日美元现货指数上涨0.5%，创下9月25日以来的最佳单日表现。收盘时，指数更是触及逾两周高位，展现出久违的强势。 富国银行纽约策略师AroopChatterjee也持类似观点。 他认为，在缺乏及时经济数据的背景下，美联储维持现有利率水平的概率已显著上升。除非即将在周四发布的9月非农就业 数据出现意外疲软，否则多数政策制定委员大概率会在12月选择保持利率稳定。 据悉，此前 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月14日，新西兰元涨幅扩大，最新报0.5690美元，上涨0.64%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New Zealand dollar is set to become the first major developed market currency to erase its gains from early 2023 by 2025, primarily due to aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand amid a weak economic backdrop [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The New Zealand dollar is the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies in 2025, with its appreciation against the US dollar shrinking from over 9% to nearly 1% [1] - The currency has faced pressure due to rising unemployment and the economy nearing its second recession in two years [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Since July of the previous year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has reduced the official cash rate by three percentage points [1] - Traders anticipate two more rate cuts by mid-2026 [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - According to Westpac Banking Corporation strategist Imre Speizer, the risks for the New Zealand dollar remain skewed to the downside [1] - Upcoming data releases, including retail spending and inflation expectations, are expected to influence market sentiment, which has led to a slight downward adjustment in the pricing of the official cash rate [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen stabilized and rebounded against the US dollar after the new finance minister indicated that the government is closely monitoring foreign exchange market fluctuations [1][2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a near nine-month low before slightly rebounding, hovering around 154.20, with Tokyo's core CPI for October rising 2.8% year-on-year, indicating inflation remains above target levels [2] - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point in political discussions, with a 4% decline against the dollar over the past month, marking the worst monthly performance since July [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 91.1% to 74.7% [3] - The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.0989%, close to a three-week high, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day's close [3] - Other currencies showed mixed performance, with the euro at 1.1572 against the dollar, while the British pound hovered around 1.31440 amid political pressure, and both the Australian and New Zealand dollars experienced declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the US dollar amidst global market volatility driven by tech stock earnings and unclear central bank policies, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards safer assets like the dollar [1][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar index stabilized at 99.5, reaching a three-month high due to risk-averse sentiment following a decline in US stocks [1]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path have shifted, with traders reducing bets on a rate cut in December, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets [6][8]. - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.1%, reflecting the changing market expectations and increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen stabilized after reaching a near nine-month low, supported by comments from the new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who indicated a heightened monitoring of foreign exchange trends [3][7]. - Despite a slight rebound, the yen has depreciated by 4% against the dollar over the past month, marking its worst monthly performance since July [3]. - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and complicating the Bank of Japan's position on maintaining interest rates [7]. Group 3: Other Major Currencies - The euro appreciated to 1.156 against the dollar, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting [11]. - The British pound remained stable at 1.31555 against the dollar, amid political pressures faced by the UK Chancellor [15]. - Commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed weakness, with the Australian dollar down 0.1% to 0.65495 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.2% to 0.57325, reflecting global risk aversion [15].

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a significant increase in market optimism, resulting in a rebound across global markets, including stock prices, oil, and copper [1][2][3] - Asian stock markets saw substantial gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historical high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The positive sentiment from the China-US trade discussions has also influenced commodity prices, with agricultural products like soybeans and corn expected to benefit from a potential trade agreement [3][4] Group 2 - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rise in US stock futures and European stock index futures [3][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding market expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade accounts for nearly one-fifth of the global total, highlighting the interconnectedness of supply chains [5]

Group 1 - US stock index futures rose in early Asian trading due to positive news regarding a comprehensive trade agreement between the US and China [1][3] - S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, while major Asia-Pacific markets also saw gains [3] - On October 24, US stock markets continued their upward trend, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1%, both reaching new closing highs [3] Group 2 - Currency markets showed mixed results, with Australian and New Zealand dollars slightly rising, while the US dollar's performance varied against other major currencies [3] - Analysts remain cautious despite the optimistic market sentiment, with some suggesting that the current situation reflects a cooling rather than a fundamental improvement [3][4] - This week is critical for the market as central bank policies and US corporate earnings season converge, potentially leading to market volatility [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the relationship between labor productivity, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and exchange rates, using real GDP per capita as a measure of labor productivity to assess currency valuation and future exchange rate trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Effective Exchange Rates - The Balassa-Samuelson effect indicates that "lagging" economies experience a continuous appreciation of their real effective exchange rates as they catch up to "developed" economies [1][3]. - From 2005 to 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan appreciated, supporting the notion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, with predictions of further appreciation in 2025 and 2026 based on OECD forecasts [1][4]. - A comparison of 15 economies' labor productivity data for 2024 reveals that the Indonesian rupiah, Swiss franc, and South African rand are overvalued by over 20%, while the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by over 20% [6][9]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The analysis predicts that in the next year, the US dollar will appreciate slightly against the euro and pound, weaken against the yuan initially, and then strengthen, while it will weaken against the yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Korean won [2][10]. - The euro and pound are expected to weaken moderately against the yuan, while the yen, Korean won, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar may rebound against the yuan after short-term pressure [2][23]. - The analysis suggests that the yuan is slightly overvalued by 3.45% relative to labor productivity, indicating that the appreciation of the yuan in 2025 and 2026 may be limited [6][9]. Group 3: Labor Productivity and Currency Valuation - The article emphasizes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect provides a theoretical framework linking labor productivity to real exchange rates, which is crucial for medium to long-term exchange rate assessments [4][10]. - The analysis of labor productivity and actual effective exchange rates shows that the yuan's valuation is close to equilibrium, with slight overvaluation, while other currencies like the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen show significant undervaluation [6][9]. - The relationship between labor productivity and bilateral exchange rates indicates that the yuan may face appreciation pressures in the coming years, particularly against currencies like the euro and pound [23][24].

Market Overview - Markets are facing political turmoil in Japan and France, alongside a U.S. government shutdown, leading to decreased investor confidence and a flight to safety in assets like gold [1][10] - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, recently falling to an eight-month low of 153 per dollar, with a decline of over 3% for the week, marking its worst performance since September 2024 [10][11] Currency Movements - The dollar has strengthened, rising more than 1% for the week, supported by the weakness of the yen and euro [6][11] - The euro has seen a slight recovery, trading 0.09% higher at $1.1639, but remains nearly 0.9% down for the week [6][11] - Other currencies, such as the British pound and Australian dollar, have also shown minor gains, with the pound at $1.3413 and the Australian dollar at $0.6594 [6][11] Japanese Political Context - The selection of Sanae Takaichi as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party may lead to increased spending and a continuation of loose monetary policy, potentially further weakening the yen [10][11] - The upcoming October Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting is anticipated to be a catalyst for further yen weakness if Takaichi maintains dovish fiscal and monetary views [4][10] U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate caution regarding future interest rate cuts, with markets still pricing in two more cuts by year-end [8][11] - A prolonged U.S. government shutdown could delay important economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process for its October meeting [8][11] - Investors are currently pricing in approximately 44 basis points of easing by December 2023 [9][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the British pound is more significantly affected by large capital flows compared to the Japanese yen or euro, exhibiting price volatility that is unexpectedly high [1][3] - Morgan Stanley's analysts found that the pound's liquidity is lower, making it less effective at absorbing large market capital flows, which can lead to greater price fluctuations [1][3] - The report highlights that capital flows play a crucial role in currency exchange rate movements, challenging the traditional view that these movements are primarily driven by cross-border trade [3] Group 2 - According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements, the euro and yen account for approximately 31% and 17% of currency trading, respectively, while the pound accounts for about 13% [1] - The analysis suggests that trading location and timing can significantly impact the price levels of the pound, particularly during late trading sessions in London [3] - The findings are based on trading costs derived from hypothetical client orders placed in the exchange market, collected during peak liquidity periods in the forex market [3]