中金发布研报称，考虑中国东方教育(00667)招生恢复优于预期，上调2025年/2026年收入预测2.4%/6.4% 至45亿元/50亿元;考虑公司成本及费用管控成果优于预期，上调经调整归母净利润预测16.8%/28.0%至 7.56亿元/9.74亿元。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到公司在职业教育市场的优势地位及招生恢复优于预期， 上调目标价58%至9.5港元(基于9.8倍2025e调整后EV/EBITDA)。公司目前交易于7.5倍2025e调整后 EV/EBITDA，对应18%的上行空间。 长学制产品结构持续优化，加快升学建设 中金主要观点如下： 2025年上半年经调整归母净利润略超市场预期 中国东方教育公布1H2025年业绩：收入21.9亿元，同比增长10.2%，符合市场预期;经调整归母净利润同 比增长49.5%至4.16亿元，略高于市场预期，主要得益于成本及费用管控得当。 新招生人数逐步恢复正常节奏 2025年上半年，集团新招生人数同比增加7.1%，平均培训人次同比增加5.5%，主要系6-12月精品短训专 业及15个月高价值专业招生表现突出，对整体人次提升贡献显著。截至2025年6月30日，学校数量较上 年末 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education (00667) has shown better-than-expected enrollment recovery, leading to upward revisions in revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 2.4% and 6.4% to 4.5 billion and 5 billion yuan respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been raised by 16.8% and 28.0% to 756 million and 974 million yuan respectively [1] Enrollment and Training Performance - New enrollment numbers increased by 7.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with average training sessions up by 5.5% [3] - Notable performance in short-term training programs and high-value professional courses contributed significantly to overall enrollment [3] - Specific segment performance includes: - Culinary Technology: Revenue +11.4%, New Enrollment +5.2% - Western Pastry and Cuisine: Revenue +14.3%, New Enrollment +0.7% - Information Technology: Revenue -3.0%, New Enrollment +6.4% - Automotive Services: Revenue +9.6%, New Enrollment +9.3% - Fashion and Beauty: Revenue +90.2%, New Enrollment +34.1% [3] Profitability Improvement - Overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 57.3%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - All five business segments reported year-on-year gross margin improvements, with notable increases in Culinary Technology and Fashion and Beauty [4] - Adjusted net profit margin reached 19.0%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost and expense management [4] Product Structure and Strategic Development - The 15-month high-skill programs are aligned with student needs for skill enhancement and rapid employment, with expected enrollment growth of over 50% in 2026 [5] - The company is accelerating the development of a higher education-oriented professional system and upgrading vocational schools to technician colleges [5] - Management anticipates a 10% revenue growth and over 20% net profit growth in 2026 [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education reported a slight beat on market expectations for adjusted net profit in 1H2025, driven by effective cost and expense management [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H2025 reached 2.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, in line with market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit grew by 49.5% year-on-year to 416 million yuan, slightly above market expectations [1] - Overall gross margin improved to 57.3%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, with all five business segments showing improvement [2] - Adjusted net profit margin reached 19.0%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control [2] Enrollment Trends - New student enrollment increased by 7.1% year-on-year in 1H2025, with average training sessions up by 5.5% [1] - The number of schools increased by one compared to the end of the previous year [1] - Specific segment performance included: - Culinary Arts: Revenue up 11.4%, new enrollment up 5.2% - Western Pastry and Cuisine: Revenue up 14.3%, new enrollment up 0.7% - Information Technology: Revenue down 3.0%, new enrollment up 6.4% - Automotive Services: Revenue up 9.6%, new enrollment up 9.3% - Fashion Beauty: Revenue up 90.2%, new enrollment up 34.1% [1] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to increase the number of beauty industry schools to 13 by the end of 2026, targeting over 50% revenue growth [1] - Management expects a 10% revenue growth and over 20% net profit growth for 2026 [1] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 2.4% and 6.4% to 4.5 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 16.8% and 28.0% to 756 million yuan and 974 million yuan, respectively [2] - The target price has been raised by 58% to 9.5 HKD, based on a 9.8x 2025e adjusted EV/EBITDA [2]