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软商品日报 2025年11月28日-20251128
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 11:09
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The cotton market has support from low commercial inventories and fast sales progress, but short - term upward space is still cautiously viewed. The sugar market is expected to remain weak. The apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets have different supply and demand and inventory situations, with opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. The pulp market is in a situation of high inventory and weak demand. The timber market has low - inventory support [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has broken through the previous trading range. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high, and sales progress is fast, providing strong support to the market. The market has a certain bullish expectation for the new - year planting in China. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable, with insufficient new orders. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation is to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. The market's trading focus is shifting to the next season's output estimate. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. In the spot market, transactions in Shandong are mainly for small and medium - sized fruits, and prices in the northwest are stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. The de - stocking situation will be the main trading point in the future [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR continued to rise slightly, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price fluctuated. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan产区 in China has entered the non - production period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has dropped significantly. The demand performance is average, natural rubber inventories are increasing, synthetic rubber inventories are starting to decrease, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The operation is to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price is fluctuating, and the spot price is stable. The external market price is still high, and domestic supply is expected to remain low. Port outbound volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and low inventory supports the price. The operation is to wait and see [8]
广金期货重点品种资金流向与基差日报 20251120
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 01:13
Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the capital flow in various commodities as of November 20, highlighting significant inflows and outflows across different sectors, indicating market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. Capital Flow Summary - The top commodities with positive capital inflow include: - Palm Oil (P): 3.06 billion - Apple (AP): 2.00 billion - Iron Ore: 0.88 billion - White Sugar (SR): 0.83 billion - Ethylene Glycol (EG): 0.70 billion [1]. - The commodities with the largest negative capital outflow include: - Rubber (RU): -0.54 billion - Hot Rolled Coil (HC): -0.65 billion - Rebar (RB): -0.82 billion - Pulp (SP): -0.77 billion - Tin (SN): -1.04 billion [1]. Price and Futures Data - The report includes current prices and futures data for various commodities, such as: - Copper (CU): Current price 86,420, Futures price 86,130 - Aluminum (AL): Current price 21,580, Futures price 21,530 - Zinc (ZN): Current price 22,570, Futures price 22,385 [5]. - Notable price changes include: - Iron Ore (I): Current price 790, Futures price 788.5, change of 1.5 - Rebar (RB): Current price 3,210, Futures price 3,050, change of 160 [5]. Company Overview - Guangzhou Jin控 Futures Co., Ltd. was established in 2003 and is a subsidiary of Guangzhou Jin控 Group, with a registered capital of 800 million RMB. The company is involved in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures trading consulting, and asset management [3][6].