| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】 今日RU继续小跌,NR先抑后扬,BR继续下跌,国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶现价稳中有跌,外盘丁二烯港口价格稳定,泰国原料市 场价格总体下跌。供应方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入高产期，东南亚等产区降雨天气偏多；上周国内丁二烯橡胶装置开工 率继续大幅回落，益华橡塑临时停车检修、山东威特继 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Paper pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing supply - demand, price, and inventory information, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing or trading within a range [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and declined, with weak spot trading but good pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new - cotton listing. The acquisition of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton is expected to start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with the output forecast ranging from 720 to 770 tons. Ginning factories are cautious about new - cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly. At the beginning of new - cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. Domestic peak - season demand is weak, and spinning profits are poor, which drags down the cotton price. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations need further follow - up. After the short - term breakdown of Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, and the supply pressure is less than last year. In the medium term, based on the sugar - alcohol ratio, if the current ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Attention should be paid to subsequent production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. This year's sales rhythm is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Since July, rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Typhoon Kajiki is expected to have little impact on sugarcane growth, and subsequent growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is strongly running. Affected by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand for cold - storage apples has increased. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with the pre - order price of pre - harvested apples remaining high. From a fundamental perspective, the high price of early - maturing apples has raised the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, according to bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In addition, farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than market expectations. Overall, although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage inventory in the new season will be higher than expected, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&IR oscillated weakly, and BR oscillated strongly. The wait - and - see sentiment in the futures market has increased. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber have stabilized with a slight increase, the import price of butadiene in the external market has remained stable, and the prices in the Thai raw - material market have mostly declined. In terms of supply, the global natural - rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants in maintenance and low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has also decreased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly last week, and tire enterprises maintained normal production, but the inventory of finished - tire products increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong this week continued to decline to 461,200 tons, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang last week fell back to 12,600 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 27,800 tons this week. Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, and the supply and inventory of synthetic rubber both decrease. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is cautious. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [5] Paper Pulp - The paper - pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish is 4,220 yuan/ton, and the prices are stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China is 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.7%. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts. China's paper - pulp import volume in August 2025 was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 227,000 tons. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the paper - pulp supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory. The paper - pulp demand is still average. A wait - and - see approach or a trading - within - a - range strategy is recommended [6] Logs - The futures price is oscillating. The mainstream spot price has remained stable. In terms of supply, the weekly arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price has been weak, and the import willingness of traders has declined. In addition, the external - market price is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, although it is the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average outbound volume during the off - season has remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction has been smooth. In terms of inventory, the total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summaries by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. New cotton sales may be favorable at the beginning of the new cotton listing period due to low old - crop inventory [2] - Xinjiang machine - picked cotton acquisition is expected to gradually start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The probability of a high - yield cotton crop in Xinjiang is large, but the specific yield estimate ranges from 720 to 770 tons [2] - Ginners are cautious about new cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a situation of grabbing cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the high yield [2] - At the beginning of the new cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. The weak demand in the peak season and poor spinning profits drag down the cotton price [2] - Positive signals have been released in Sino - US trade negotiations, but details need further follow - up. After Zhengzhou cotton broke through the support level, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increase in the sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss of sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the next sugar - making season. After July, the rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar output in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be relatively good [3] - Typhoon Koinu will bring wind and rain to Guangxi, with expected limited impact. Follow - up conditions need to be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated strongly. In the spot market, the demand for cold - storage apples increased due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high, with the pre - harvest order price remaining high [4] - Based on the bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side [4] - Apple farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples left for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new quarter may be higher than market expectations [4] - Although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage apple inventory in the new quarter will be higher than expected. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish operation strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all rose slightly, and the sentiment in the futures market improved. The domestic spot price of natural rubber was stable, the spot price of synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market was stable [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production period, and Super Typhoon Koinu passed through production areas such as China and Vietnam. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, and some plants were shut down for maintenance or operating at low loads [5] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly, tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tire products increased [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 46.12 tons, with the bonded - area inventory decreasing and the general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.26 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to decline to 2.31 tons [5] - Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, the supply of synthetic rubber decreases and inventory also decreases, and cost - driven factors strengthen. As the National Day holiday approaches, risk preference is cautious. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [5] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the price of broad - leaved pulp was also stable [6] - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 211.2 tons, a 5 - ton increase from the previous period, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the inventory was still at a high level year - on - year [6] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [6] - China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 265.3 tons, a 22.7 - ton month - on - month decrease. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the pulp demand is still average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt a range - trading strategy [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream quotation was stable [7] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In September, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased [7] - The external quotation is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level [7] - Although the demand has entered the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average shipment volume during the off - season remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth [7] - The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and the short - term price increase momentum is insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: White star [1] - Timber: White star [1] - Natural Rubber: White star [1] - 20 - rubber: White star [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still volatile, with a cautious view on the upside space. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Due to the possible shortfall in Brazil's sugar production, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, and has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestic Zhengzhou sugar is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3]. - The futures price of apples continues to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The market is bullish in the short term, but there is insufficient bullish drive on the supply side in the medium and long term. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - The demand for rubber is expected to weaken in the short term, the supply increases, the natural rubber inventory continues to decline, and the synthetic rubber inventory rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The pulp supply is relatively loose, the demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. - The supply - demand situation of logs has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with stable basis of inland cotton spot and light trading. In July, domestic cotton imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 149400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22600 tons. A 200000 - ton sliding - duty processing trade quota was issued, which can relieve the cost pressure on some export enterprises. The market expects a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The short - term trend is volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of July were bullish. In the short term, the US sugar price may rebound, and it has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. This year's sales rhythm was fast, with lower inventory. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth [3]. Apple - The futures price continued to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The price of early - maturing apples is high, increasing the market's bullish sentiment. However, the supply - side increase in the 25/26 quarter is not significant, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated and rose today. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires and semi - steel tires rebounded, and the tire enterprises' finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded, and the butadiene port inventory declined. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Pulp - The pulp futures continued to decline today. As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream imported sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. The global pulp shipment to China in June was 1.6119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. Timber - The futures price of logs fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The log arrival volume decreased last week, and the domestic import is not expected to increase significantly in the short term. The daily port outbound volume is about 60000 cubic meters, and the inventory is 3.05 million cubic meters as of August 22, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, and the influencing factors include supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - economic factors. The investment strategies for different commodities mainly include waiting and seeing, intraday trading, or taking appropriate positions at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices pulled back today. The basis of domestic cotton spot sales was firm, and spot trading was average. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton was due to tight commercial cotton inventories and the possibility of a soft squeeze. Cotton yarn prices rose, but market trading did not improve significantly. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2829800 tons, a decrease of 628900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392300 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder was 115500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increase in production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. It is expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices weakened. The demand for apples was low due to the large supply of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&MR rose slightly, and BR rose significantly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued to rise. The global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The downstream demand improved, the rubber supply increased, the natural rubber inventory increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. The market sentiment improved, and there were potential policy benefits. The strategy is to go long on rebounds [5] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2181000 tons, a 0.2 - million - ton increase from the previous period. China's pulp imports in June were still relatively high. Currently, the import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [6] Timber - The futures price continued to rebound, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports in China was 62400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6.12%. The total port inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70000 cubic meters. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand timber will remain low, but domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [7]